Australian Federal Election - Results Thread

[Mr. Morden]

Watching the TV coverage, they've mentioned three different exit polls of specific constituencies, two that showed unrealistically large swings to Labor, and one that showed an unrealistically large swing to the Coalition.  None of the pundits believe the constituency exit polls.

Meanwhile, on Channel Ten, they mentioned that the national exit poll they did showed Labor winning 52%-48%, but that, oddly, the Coalition was slightly ahead in the actual swing races.

[Mr. Morden]

What's the best website for results?

[Mr. Morden]

What's the best website for results?

http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2010/ i'm using that.

Yeah, but where are they showing seat-by-seat results in some kind of logical order?  I go here:

http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2010/guide/sop.htm

and I get overall state results.  I go here:

http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2010/guide/latest.htm

and I get seat-by-seat results in some kind of random order.

[Mr. Morden]

The analysts on TV are suggesting that a Labor majority is looking less and less likely.

[Mr. Morden]

Hung parliament seems very likely now.(?)

I agree.  It looks like the most likely scenario at the moment.

[Mr. Morden]

Neither party will have a majority in the Senate, and the Greens will hold the balance of power there, as expected.

[Mr. Morden]

Labor was leading in the early returns in Corangamite, but the margin is now less than 300 votes:

http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2010/guide/cora.htm

Closest seat at the moment.

[Mr. Morden]

Labor was leading in the early returns in Corangamite, but the margin is now less than 300 votes:

http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2010/guide/cora.htm

Closest seat at the moment.

39,321 to 38,047 is 300? (Actually, that lead with two precincts out is not enough to call it - wtf?)

Wait, sorry.  No, it's 1300.  I just misread it. 

[Mr. Morden]

Personally, I think the more interesting question is who's going to replace Abbott or Gillard as party leader depending on which of them loses the negotiations.

Is Abbott necessary going to get kicked out as Coalition leader even if he lose the negociations though, considering the elction was so close and that Abbott still made a better effort than anyone expected.

That's my guy feeling as well.  The Liberals are cheering Abbott as a hero for turning around their bleak situation from last year.  Even if Labor still "wins" this election, why would they get rid of him now?

[Mr. Morden]

Just came home, so who won ?

Nobody.

Weird. What´s happening now ?

link

[Mr. Morden]

Canada, the UK and Australia all have hung parliaments now under systems that are designed to prevent such situations.

Yes, though Canada and the UK have had sizable third parties for a while now.  This election in Australia is more like a "tie", in which everything comes down to what a handful of Independents decide to do.  The American analogy would be like having an election in which everything was decided on the basis of who Joe Lieberman and Charlie Crist decide to caucus with.

[Mr. Morden]

The "kingmakers":

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-11049458

[Mr. Morden]

The commentary I've read makes it sounds like, if people had to bet, the LibNats forming government is at least a bit more likely than Labor, simply because Liberals + Nationals + the 3 conservative Independents is likely to get you to a majority.  While the 3 conservative Independents all have problems with the Coalition, they do represent conservative constituencies, and if it's Coalition 73 Labor 72, they'd probably be more likely to cut a deal with the Coalition, rather than deliver victory to Julia Gillard.

What do those who follow this more closely than I do think of that?  If someone put a gun to your head, and forced you to bet on which party you think will form a government out of this, which way would you go?

[Mr. Morden]

I guess one prerequisite for the Coalition having a realistic chance at forming a government is that they would need at least 73 seats on their own.  Otherwise, even the three conservative Independents wouldn't be enough to get them to 76.  So I guess one question is "What is the probability that they end up dropping below 73 seats?"  This article:

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-election/labor-leads-race-for-minority-government-20100822-13akb.html

suggests that postal votes in Hasluck are likely to be heavily Labor, which could put them over the top there, meaning that the Coalition would drop to 72.  Of course, there are a couple of other too close to call seats where Labor's leading that could well offset this.  How many seats do people think are truly in play at the moment?  Everyone seems to have a different count.

[Mr. Morden]

Now it looks like Tony Crook and WA Nationals are saying that they won't support the Coalition unless they get more $ for rural WA??:

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-election/profile-tony-crook-20100822-13azk.html

[Mr. Morden]

Crook says he might switch over to Labor if they agree to get rid of the mining tax:

link

[Mr. Morden]

Bill Shorten to be the next Labor leader?:

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-election/odds-shorten-on-next-labor-leader-20100823-13d2g.html

[Mr. Morden]

I know this was asked before, but I didn't quite follow the answer: What specifically happens if it's 75-75, and neither side will budge?  Say Labor gets 75 votes on its side, and has to pick someone on its own side for Speaker because no one on the other side will take it.  Does the government instantly collapse?  Is the only way for 75-75 to work to get someone from the other camp to agree to be Speaker?

[Mr. Morden]

The online betting markets are now giving Labor a 60% chance of forming the next government, whereas ~24 hours ago, it was 60/40 the other way.  This more or less tracks the more recent analysis I've been reading, which suggests that a coalition on the right might require the cooperation of too many people who can't stand each other.  Plus there's the possibility that Labor cracks either Hasluck or Dunkley.  If it gets either of those seats, then the best the Coalition can realistically hope for is a new election.

Also, Gillard's chances of being Labor leader at the next election (whenever that might happen) are now up to 50%, according to the oddsmakers.

[Mr. Morden]

Oakeshott says he wants there to be a "grand coalition", and wants to reform the way Parliament works so that the party leadership of the majority party doesn't decide everything:

link

If that doesn't happen (and it won't) then he might not back either side.

Betfair now has the probability of Labor forming the next government at 53%, and the probability of it being the Coalition at 47%.

I'm struggling to think of any recent election anywhere in the world where things have still been this uncertain three days after the election.  OK, there are cases like Iraq, but that's a bit different.  There, you've got about five significant factions, and the question is which particular combination of them is going to make a deal.  In countries where it's normally a contest between two major parties, when was the last time something like this happened?

[Mr. Morden]

From the ABC numbers, the Lib lead in Hasluck has grown, and is now almost as big as the Labor lead in Corangamite.

Hasluck: Lib lead of 586
Corangamite: Labor lead of 637

[Mr. Morden]

In today's Financial Review, they ask an actuary for the odds on a parliamentary majority of one seat unraveling because of a member dying.  The answer the guy gives is that there is a ~20% chance of at least one member of the House dying in any 12 month period.  That would correspond to a ~50/50 chance of it happening during a 3 year term.  Of course, in an evenly split House, it's just as likely to happen to a member in the minority as a majority.

[Mr. Morden]

The three seats that haven't been called by ABC:

Corangamite: Labor leads by 724 votes
Hasluck: Coalition leads by 714 votes
Brisbane: Coalition leads by 684 votes

[Mr. Morden]

The ABC has called Hasluck for the Coalition...leaving only Brisbane and Corangamite left.

[Mr. Morden]

Two of the Independents, Wilkie and Windsor, say that they'll decide which side to support this week:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/08/29/2996462.htm?section=justin

Even if the others take longer, this could give us a pretty good idea of which side will end up forming a government.  Wilkie will most likely side with Labor, but Windsor could go either way.