Australian Federal Election - Results Thread

[Platypus]

Dear Queenslanders and New South Welshmen: go get farked. Sincerely, Victoria and Tasmania.

[Platypus]

My numbers keep saying that if you include Denison and Melbourne in the ALP count they've got 75-77, depending on WA. Maaaybe 78 if they can get Solomon, but I'm not confident.


...edit: and Antony Green agrees

[Platypus]

looks like a small-h hung parliament, with Labor winning with the backing of Adam Bandt and whoever wins Denison.

[Platypus]

yeah, but realistically of tose 8 undecided, it's going to end up as Silent Hunter suggested. 75 Left, 72 coalition and 3 right-leaning independents. PM Gillard.

[Platypus]

75/75 includes the speaker, so it's actually 74/75/1, but the speaker always supports the government because it's always an intensely loyal member of the governing party (to ensure a biased chair, one of the worst modifications to Westminster we've made).

The relevant point here is that the 75 on the left is significantly firmer than the 75 on the right, because Bandt and Wilkie could never support Abbott in a million years. FWIW, I think Antony Green is wrong on the 74/76 call.

[Platypus]

 I also am not convinced of what'll happen in Denison and Hasluck, but in short: If Abbott is PM in a few days, the greens are at fault.

[Platypus]

Labor ahead on the TPP for the first time all night...glimmer of hope

[Platypus]

50.65% ALP TPP, btw.

[Platypus]

As I've been saying, Wilkie isn't elected yet (and Stephen Smith, bless him, agrees) and the other Independents aren't guaranteed Abbott supporters, especially Oakeshott and Katter and Windsor

Also any government will most likely last the full term, due to the nature of our Senate elections.

[Platypus]

Also, in the three seats where I know a candidate personally and in a non-political context, the results are as follows:

Rebecca Leighton, Greens, Swan: 11. 47% (+1.45%)
Jess Di Blasio, Greens, Macarthur: 5.21% (+1.1%)
Hugh Mortensen, Labor, Murray: 23.63% (-0.43%)

[Platypus]

Wilkie only ahead by 16 votes in first preference terms from the Liberals. But this is actually bad news, because the Greens are more likely now to be eliminated before the Liberals, preferencing Wilkie over the Libs and probably Labor. Denison is now looking more positive for Wilkie than before.

[Platypus]

TPP: ALP 50.54%


why is the ABC ignoring this??

[Platypus]

TPP: ALP 50.54%


why is the ABC ignoring this??

Somebody ought to shove that stuff in George Brandis' face.

yup

[Platypus]

FWIW, in a ranking of recent anglosphere right-wing leaders, Abbott is near the middle.

David Cameron
John Key
John McCain
Tony Abbott
Stephen Harper
John Howard
George W. Bush

He's still horrible, but he isn't as horrible as Howard, Harper or Bush.

Also, not to be too, BRTDish, but fark the Greens.

...and finally, time for Victoria and Tasmania to split off from the rest of Australia.

[Platypus]

I think McCain, Abbott, Harper and Howard are all pretty much lineball, but Abbott certainly isn't the most conservative of the bunch. McCain is awkward because he's at least as conservative as Abbott, but in the US context that's quite moderate, so I wasn't sure where to place him. I'm pretty happy with the order, the only change I might consider is switching Abbott and McCain.

[Platypus]

I'd say it's 55-45 to the coalition's advantage. If Labor gets government, we'll see a full term though, and if it's the Libs we should expect a DD within a year.

[Platypus]

Heard a little birdie saying Labor will be looking at adding a 151st seat or removing the 150th should they govern. Neither would change senate numbers, and both would be in the territories so they can do so. The loss would be in the NT, making one semi-safe Labor seat instead of one safe Labor and one swing seat; the coalition would hate it. The addition would be in the ACT (which truly does deserve a third seat, population wise) and would mean that Labor would almost certainly gain an extra seat.

While it would be in Labor's favour to do either, I also think it would be in democracy's favour. The likelihood of 75-75, which means 74-75-1 with the speaker and a government permanently at risk of no confidence without the speaker voting (no tie at 74-75) is real, but with a 151st seat the most equal it could be is 75-75 allowing the speaker to vote. Much better (also for the coalition should they find themselves in such a position one day).

Of course, there hasn't been anything said by a single member of the parliamentary party, and it depends on the outcome of this election anyway, but I think long term for Australia's sake a 151st seat (or at least no 150th seat) is the way to go.

[Platypus]

While it would be in Labor's favour to do either, I also think it would be in democracy's favour. The likelihood of 75-75, which means 74-75-1 with the speaker and a government permanently at risk of no confidence without the speaker voting (no tie at 74-75) is real, but with a 151st seat the most equal it could be is 75-75 allowing the speaker to vote.

What about electing a speaker from the ranks of the opposition when attempting to govern with a razor-thin majority?

A candidate needs to accept the nomination. None of the coalition MPs would I'd suggest (except maaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaybe the new member for O'Connor, Tony Crook) and I doubt any of the KOWs would, except maybe Katter, just because he's mad, but the government would rather go into opposition I'd suggest.

[Platypus]

Apparently Dunkley is borderline now...I dunno. Fingers crossed, but...I dunno.

[Platypus]

She was always going to keep the leadership, even if they lost, imho.

[Platypus]

Melbourne Ports?? Griffith? Perth?

I'm guessing this is leading on first preferences, and these inner-urban seats are being lead by the coalition due to large Greens votes?

[Platypus]

so it's a pretty good indication of what would happen without preferential voting, and without tactical voting that FPTP encourages...less horrible for Labor than I would have expected (but still bad...55 ALP, 1 Green, 94 Coalition)

[Platypus]

Verily: We don't have provinces. And yes, in the state of South Australia.

[Platypus]

AEC is counting prepoll, absentee and postal in Hasluck; Jackson (ALP) is leading on absentee with 53.4%, but is only getting 48.2% of pre-poll. She's also behind on postals, with only 47.3%.

It should be noted that provisional, which will favour her, are not yet being counted, and that these are very small numbers of the total absentee/pre-poll/postal votes. But not looking good for Labor.

[Platypus]

FWIW, the standard pattern is *usually* that the coalition lead on absentee and postal and Labor on provisional (but that's usually not a huge number of votes). I'm not sure which way pre-poll leans, but I'd suspect not in the direction of Labor.