Australian Federal Election - Results Thread

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Nationals in WA are not for a coalition. Neither are the Nationals in SA but that party is virtually dead.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

I know this was asked before, but I didn't quite follow the answer: What specifically happens if it's 75-75, and neither side will budge?  Say Labor gets 75 votes on its side, and has to pick someone on its own side for Speaker because no one on the other side will take it.  Does the government instantly collapse?  Is the only way for 75-75 to work to get someone from the other camp to agree to be Speaker?

I'm pretty sure that Dictionary.com has that as the very definition of a Constitutional Crisis... and the reason that Hugh said the size of the House needs to be expanded or shrunk (which echoes my opinion on the Victorian House - see earlier posts).

IMO, Legislatures should always have an odd number of seats to prevent this from happening.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Gillard should just call another election.

The UK tried that
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_February_1974
and there was not much change
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_October_1974

They did manage to slip in a few more seats, but the smaller parties were the largest benefactors. If there is another election this year, expect to see 5-3 Greens in the House and 12 or more Greens in the Senate.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

I’ve done my own seat by seat counts.

Two seats are officially in doubt. http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-15508-156.htm and http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-15508-207.htm

There are two other seats, both leaning Labor, both in NSW, that could still flip.

http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-15508-128.htm

http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-15508-122.htm

There is a final seat, http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-15508-149.htm where the primary count is where things could be different. The smaller parties are more to the left, and, if they preference the Greens higher than the Liberals, the Greens could overtake the Liberals and make it to the TCP. If this were to happen, they may overtake Labor.

Lastly, in O’Connor, the elected member is a WA National. The problem? WA Nationals do not support the coalition that their other National brothers across the country do. There is no guarantee the elected member will sit with the coalition. He is, effectively, an independent until he says otherwise.

This puts Labor at 68 decided seats.

The Coalition at 71.

Others at 6.

And 3 in doubt, all of which, are leaning Labor.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

No idea who this Abbott fella was but first impressions are not positive. Rather like some idiot missing its village. Reminds me of that splendid chap from Crawford, Texas

While I disagree with him on a lot of things (OK, most things), Abbott is an incredibly cunning and highly-intelligent person (Rhodes Scholar).

As I've said, my first impressions are not positive. Makes no difference whether he is a Rhodes Scholar or not

^this.

He may be a nutjob and a scumbag, but he most certainly isn't an idiot.

Almost makes me feel like we are talking about Stephen Harper!

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

It'll be Labor, of that I'm nearly 100% certain.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

So you FINALLY picked a winner, eh?