Internal Show Dems in Trouble in IL-2

[Dgov]

I'm very hesitant to believe this poll myself, as the chances of an upset here are minuscule at best, but according to a telephone poll, Jesse Jackson Jr. is in trouble for his re-election.

http://www.isaac4honesty.com/news.asp?artid=94

http://www.flickr.com/photos/isaachayesdotcom/4920662950/sizes/l/in/photostream/

Apparently 53% say they would vote for Issac Hayes over Jesse Jackson, although it is after mentioning Jackson's possible role in the Blago scandals, and probably under polls Jackson's strength with the Urban poor of Chicago' South side.  But if this number is anywhere close to accurate, the Democrats are in trouble.  Obama won this district in 2008 with 90% of the vote.

[Sam Spade]

lofl

[Lunar]

Petition for a joke poll thread on the House board.

[DrScholl]

A Republican winning a D+36 district? That wouldn't even happen in a tsunami. And it is worth mentioning that this candidate does share a name with a very popular, now deceased singer, maybe he only polled music who are way out of the loop.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

[Lief 🗽]

Isn't Isaac Hayes dead?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Who's the black Republican candidate that's a sex machine to all the chicks?

[Brittain33]

LOL at the Democrats spinning this poll. Face the music, libs!

[Hash]

ROFL

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Not that I'm saying I believe this poll, but what was the PVI of the old Rostenkowski district when he lost it?

[cinyc]

Not that I'm saying I believe this poll, but what was the PVI of the old Rostenkowski district when he lost it?

I think the only way an entrenched incumbent loses a PVI > 20 seat is if he or she is caught up in a huge scandal in an off-year or off-time election, depressing turnout from their own party.  Jesse Jackson Junior isn't there - yet.

[tmthforu94]

It would be nice to see an Isaac in Congress, but highly unlikely this will be the guy.

[Brittain33]

Not that I'm saying I believe this poll, but what was the PVI of the old Rostenkowski district when he lost it?

Is this the thread you had in mind when you cautioned people not to say "This Democrat will win, his district is too safe..." the other day?

[Brittain33]

I think the only way an entrenched incumbent loses a PVI > 20 seat is if he or she is caught up in a huge scandal in an off-year or off-time election, depressing turnout from their own party.  Jesse Jackson Junior isn't there - yet.

You'd have to find cash in his freezer. Seriously. This district is not going to flip to Republicans because "we're not thrilled with the economy." We can see massive shifts in safe districts in unusual elections, sure, but I wouldn't bet money on a big swing in a predominantly African-American district to the Republicans for the first time in modern times being one of them. But maybe I'm just lying to myself and refusing to face reality, and African-Americans are going to vote heavily Republican in an Obama mid-term election.

[muon2]

I think the only way an entrenched incumbent loses a PVI > 20 seat is if he or she is caught up in a huge scandal in an off-year or off-time election, depressing turnout from their own party.  Jesse Jackson Junior isn't there - yet.

You'd have to find cash in his freezer. Seriously. This district is not going to flip to Republicans because "we're not thrilled with the economy." We can see massive shifts in safe districts in unusual elections, sure, but I wouldn't bet money on a big swing in a predominantly African-American district to the Republicans for the first time in modern times being one of them. But maybe I'm just lying to myself and refusing to face reality, and African-Americans are going to vote heavily Republican in an Obama mid-term election.

If the poll is measuring anything, it's not unlike he cash in the freezer. My guess is this represents some fallout from the Blago trial. JJJ was identified at a meeting with Rod, and brother Robert wanted JJJ called as a witness to exonerate himself. Robert's off the hook now, so JJJ may never hit the stand.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Not that I'm saying I believe this poll, but what was the PVI of the old Rostenkowski district when he lost it?

About D+14 or so. In other words basically the inverse of MS-01 or UT-02. Quite different from D+36.

There are actually only 7 more seats more Democratic than this in the country, one of which doesn't elect a voting representative (DC).

[JoeyJoeJoe]

Not that I'm saying I believe this poll, but what was the PVI of the old Rostenkowski district when he lost it?

10.9

The IL-2 has a PVI of about 33.1, though it's probably higher after the 2008 election.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Ah thanks.

I also recall reading that it voted around 45% for George HW Bush in 1988. It wasn't as Democratic as a district as everyone speaks of it back then. I mean Democratic enough to vote for any Democrat who wasn't a blatant criminal maybe, but that wasn't the case. Cao actually won a far bigger upset. That was more like if Tom DeLay stayed in the race in 2006 but was still defeated by Lampson.

[Dgov]

Ah thanks.

I also recall reading that it voted around 45% for George HW Bush in 1988. It wasn't as Democratic as a district as everyone speaks of it back then. I mean Democratic enough to vote for any Democrat who wasn't a blatant criminal maybe, but that wasn't the case. Cao actually won a far bigger upset. That was more like if Tom DeLay stayed in the race in 2006 but was still defeated by Lampson.

Back in 1988 it contained Southern Cook County IIRC, and was far more suburban and therefore competitive than it is now.  Back then the 1st and 7th Districts covered most of the South side, and the former was over 80% black.

[muon2]

Ah thanks.

I also recall reading that it voted around 45% for George HW Bush in 1988. It wasn't as Democratic as a district as everyone speaks of it back then. I mean Democratic enough to vote for any Democrat who wasn't a blatant criminal maybe, but that wasn't the case. Cao actually won a far bigger upset. That was more like if Tom DeLay stayed in the race in 2006 but was still defeated by Lampson.

Back in 1988 it contained Southern Cook County IIRC, and was far more suburban and therefore competitive than it is now.  Back then the 1st and 7th Districts covered most of the South side, and the former was over 80% black.

The 7th has been a black west side district and was in the 1980s. You are correct that the 1st and 2nd CDs in the 1980s were oriented so that CD 1 was primarily in the city on the south side and CD 2 spanned the city and the south Cook suburbs.

[minionofmidas]

I think the only way an entrenched incumbent loses a PVI > 20 seat is if he or she is caught up in a huge scandal in an off-year or off-time election, depressing turnout from their own party.  Jesse Jackson Junior isn't there - yet.

You'd have to find cash in his freezer.

Try human meat. Cash in the freezer would make him lose a primary.

[Niemeyerite]

Well, if it ends being a jacksonslide, it will be a surprise (or an unpset), won't it?? hahaha

[ill ind]

  You Know, I almost feel sorry for the people in Il-2.

  First they had Gus Savage, who got in trouble for sexual harrassment, and played the race card whenever someone confronted him.  "It's the Jews fault" basically.

  Then they had Mel Reynolds, a promissing Oxford graduate, who wound up in club fed for having sex with an underage campaign worker.

  Now they have Jesse Jackson Jr, who was in my opinion fairly decent until he sold his soul to Rod Blagojevich in an attempt to land a higher office.

  Quite frankly Bozo the Clown would do a better job representing that district than the last 3 reps they have had in there.  It also shows the big downfall when one party controls politics in an area for an extended period of time.  The representative may be a total screw up, but come hell or high water people are still going to vote for that screw-up as long as he is the candidate of their party.

Ill_Ind

[minionofmidas]

Illinois' ridiculous primary date doesn't help either. That's quite incumbent-friendly.

[JoeyJoeJoe]

  You Know, I almost feel sorry for the people in Il-2.

  First they had Gus Savage, who got in trouble for sexual harrassment, and played the race card whenever someone confronted him.  "It's the Jews fault" basically.

  Then they had Mel Reynolds, a promissing Oxford graduate, who wound up in club fed for having sex with an underage campaign worker.

  Now they have Jesse Jackson Jr, who was in my opinion fairly decent until he sold his soul to Rod Blagojevich in an attempt to land a higher office.

  Quite frankly Bozo the Clown would do a better job representing that district than the last 3 reps they have had in there.  It also shows the big downfall when one party controls politics in an area for an extended period of time.  The representative may be a total screw up, but come hell or high water people are still going to vote for that screw-up as long as he is the candidate of their party.

Ill_Ind

DId actual clown Ray Wardingly run here, or in the 1st?