swing states 2008?

[J-Mann]

Oh, come on. Clinton won Montana, and I think we all know how that happened.

HAHA!  Satan was cold that night, but Montana hasn't lapsed in judgement since.

Montana just elected a Democratic governor.

Satan sleeps no more in the nothing state.

Kansas has a Democratic governor, too.  That means very little - she's got to watch her views...not all Dems are of the same mould.

[angus]

what will be the swing states for 08?  i know it impossible to tell becayse we dont know who the candidates willbe, nor do we know the main issues in the campaign.

1.  pennsylvania. 
2.  florida
3.  wisconsin
4.  michigan (much more competitive than the dems would have liked)
5.  new jersey.  (yes, i think the republicans, if they play their cards right (always a big if), have a chance at making a run at nj again.)

the state of New York.

You heard it here first.  You heard it here correctly.

[angus]

Oh, come on. Clinton won Montana, and I think we all know how that happened.

HAHA!  Satan was cold that night, but Montana hasn't lapsed in judgement since.

Montana just elected a Democratic governor.

Satan sleeps no more in the nothing state.

Nice sig, man.  With just a little weed buzz, you can definitely see a Tyrannosaurus Rex there.  If you stare at the Cape too long, it begins to look like Albertosaurus though.   Whoa.

[angus]

wait, it's a ing Jackrabbit. 

Okay, yeah, a rabbit.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'm going to take things in a whole new direction.  I'm predicting some moderate changes in both parties in the next four years, and the departure of the most divisive President evar.  The 2008 Swing States:

2004/2008 Swing states:
Maine
New Hampshire
New Mexico
Oregon
Washington

the only ones I agree with there are NH and NM. Maine was targeted this year and Kerry still took it by 8 points. We saw how much traction the Republicans got in Washington and Oregon.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I have no clue what you're thinking here.

NJ depends on the nominee, but I'm very skeptical that the Republicans will nominate a candidate socially liberal enough to take it. Ditto for CT. TN is now gone for us unless we have a moderate southern candidate, Arkansas isn't exactly but it's getting there. Texas might be in play some day due to the increasing Hispanics, but 2008 is too soon. California and South Dakota: NO WAY

You must be logged in to read this quote.

much as I hate to say it, Minnesota will not turn solid Democrat. Definate lean to Dem hopefully though. Same with Wisconsin and Michigan. I don't see why Iowa'd turn solid Dem, it'd be a swing state yet again. And how are any of these less in play than Washington, Oregon and Maine?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Florida is still trending Dem, just more slowly. You might be right about Missouri. Colorado shifted TOWARD Kerry and is trending Dem. Nevada turned out to be basically a bellwether. I don't see how any of these would turn solid Republican.

[danwxman]

States trending Dem (not just based on the 2004 election, trends in general):

Nevada
New Mexico
Colorado
Arizona
North Carolina
Virginia
New Hampshire

States trending Republican:

Michigan
Iowa
Wisconsin
Florida

[zachman]

Just another trend to point out. Tuesday marked the first time since 1960 where NH voted for a different candidate than Nevada. In both cases Nevada voted for the winning candidate. It also happened in 1948 and Nevada got it right again.

[elcorazon]

I have NOT read the thread but these are my picks:

Pennsylvania
Ohio
Wisconsin
Iowa
Minnesota
Virginia
New Mexico
Florida
Colorado
Arizona
Nevada

possibilities:

North Carolina
Michigan
Hawaii
Delaware
New Hampshire
Oregon

obviously it really depends on the candidates, however.

[Shira]

what will be the swing states for 08?  i know it impossible to tell becayse we dont know who the candidates willbe, nor do we know the main issues in the campaign.

1.  pennsylvania. 
2.  florida
3.  wisconsin
4.  michigan (much more competitive than the dems would have liked)
5.  new jersey.  (yes, i think the republicans, if they play their cards right (always a big if), have a chance at making a run at nj again.)

1.   Pennsylvania. 
2.   Florida
3.   Wisconsin
4.   Michigan
5.   Ohio
6.   Minnesota
7.   Iowa
8.   Virginia
9.   New Mexico
10. Nevada

[Gabu]

Oh, come on. Clinton won Montana, and I think we all know how that happened.

Well, yeah, but it happened, and that was only 16 years ago, so we really have no idea what could be the case come 2008.

12 years ago, Gabu!  12!  You're making us all older than we really are!

Whateverrrrr.

[J. J.]

1.  MI
2.  WI
3.  MN
4.  IA
5.  PA
6.  NM
7.  NV
8.  CO
9.  WV
10. OH

[Alcon]

1.  MI
2.  WI
3.  MN
4.  IA
5.  PA
6.  NM
7.  NV
8.  CO
9.  WV
10. OH

You think WV is going to be more of a battleground than OH? Really? Why?

[Gabu]

1.  MI
2.  WI
3.  MN
4.  IA
5.  PA
6.  NM
7.  NV
8.  CO
9.  WV
10. OH

You think WV is going to be more of a battleground than OH? Really? Why?

Because the Democrats are going to learn from 2000 and 2004 and nominate an evangelical Christian, of course.

[Ben.]

Who are some social conservative Democrats? I don't know of any.

Gov.Mark Warner, Sn.Blanche Lincoln, Gov.Ed Rendell, Sn.Evan Bayh, Sn.Mary Landrieu, Sn.Bob Graham, Sn. Ernest "Fritz" Hollings, Sn.Robert C. Byrd,  Sn.John Breaux, Sn.Jo Lieberman, Gov.Phil Bredesen, Sn.Ben Nelson, Sn.Bill Nelson, Sn.Byron Dorgan, Sn.Kent Conrad, Sn.Mark Pryor, Rep. Joe Baca, Rep. Marion Berry, Sanford Bishop, Rep. Leonard Boswell, Rep. Allen Boyd Rep. Dennis Cardoza, Rep. Brad Carson (sadly missed), Rep. Ed Case, Rep. Bud Cramer, Rep. Lincoln Davis, Rep. Harold Ford, Jr, Rep. Jane Harman, Rep. Baron Hill, Rep. Tim Holden, Rep. Steve Israel, Rep. Chris John (sadly missed), Rep. William Lipinski, Rep. Ken Lucas, Rep. Jim Matheson, Rep. Mike McIntyre, Rep. Mike Michaud, Rep. Dennis Moore, Rep. Collin Peterson, Rep. Earl Pomeroy, Rep. Mike Ross, Rep. Loretta Sanchez, Rep. Max Sandlin, Rep. Adam Schiff, Rep. David Scott,  Rep. Charlie Stenholm, Rep. John Tanner,  Rep. Ellen Tauscher,
Rep. Gene Taylor, Rep. Mike Thompson, Rep. Jim Turner and Rep. Stephanie Herseth...       

[Filuwaúrdjan]

1.  MI
2.  WI
3.  MN
4.  IA
5.  PA
6.  NM
7.  NV
8.  CO
9.  WV
10. OH

You think WV is going to be more of a battleground than OH? Really? Why?

Because the DNC is going to be nice to the WV Dems for a change... (ah. My rant is starting all over again. Many apologies)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Most of you are making a VERY big mistake...

You're assuming that the 2004 results reflect the partisan breakdown of the U.S

They do not.

They reflect the geographical polarisation of the U.S towards George W Bush and nothing more.

Here's an example: Bush won 65% in Oklahoma, winning every single county (some were very close, but that's neither here nor there).
In the Senate race, the Republicans held the state but won 53%. The Democratic candidate won about 30 counties, including some that voted for Bush by a landslide.
And in the open OK-2 congressional district, the Democrats held it with 66%, winning every county in the district.

Here's another example: Kerry won 43% in WV, Manchin was elected Governer with 63% and (according to the exit polls) 50% of the people who voted in WV were Democrats.

Presidential Elections never, ever reflect the partisan breakdown of the U.S.
They are between two candidates from two parties with massive variations between different members.

I don't know which states will be the swing states in 2008... it's possible that some states will flip from voting solidly for Bush/Kerry to voting solidly for the GOP/Dem nominee without going through a swing phase.

Here's a question for you all:

If (bear with this) the Democrats nominated Gene Taylor, and the GOP nominated Bill Weld, what would a map look like?

[A18]

Who are some social conservative Democrats? I don't know of any.

Gov.Mark Warner, Sn.Blanche Lincoln, Gov.Ed Rendell, Sn.Evan Bayh, Sn.Mary Landrieu, Sn.Bob Graham, Sn. Ernest "Fritz" Hollings, Sn.Robert C. Byrd,  Sn.John Breaux, Sn.Jo Lieberman, Gov.Phil Bredesen, Sn.Ben Nelson, Sn.Bill Nelson, Sn.Byron Dorgan, Sn.Kent Conrad, Sn.Mark Pryor, Rep. Joe Baca, Rep. Marion Berry, Sanford Bishop, Rep. Leonard Boswell, Rep. Allen Boyd Rep. Dennis Cardoza, Rep. Brad Carson (sadly missed), Rep. Ed Case, Rep. Bud Cramer, Rep. Lincoln Davis, Rep. Harold Ford, Jr, Rep. Jane Harman, Rep. Baron Hill, Rep. Tim Holden, Rep. Steve Israel, Rep. Chris John (sadly missed), Rep. William Lipinski, Rep. Ken Lucas, Rep. Jim Matheson, Rep. Mike McIntyre, Rep. Mike Michaud, Rep. Dennis Moore, Rep. Collin Peterson, Rep. Earl Pomeroy, Rep. Mike Ross, Rep. Loretta Sanchez, Rep. Max Sandlin, Rep. Adam Schiff, Rep. David Scott,  Rep. Charlie Stenholm, Rep. John Tanner,  Rep. Ellen Tauscher,
Rep. Gene Taylor, Rep. Mike Thompson, Rep. Jim Turner and Rep. Stephanie Herseth...       

Which of these people are pro-life?

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Wow...South Dakota? What exactly is going to be happening here?

Populist Democrat.  The reincarnation of William Jennings Bryan.

[Josh/Devilman88]

This is what I think

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I'm going to take things in a whole new direction.  I'm predicting some moderate changes in both parties in the next four years, and the departure of the most divisive President evar.  The 2008 Swing States:

2004/2008 Swing states:
Maine
New Hampshire
New Mexico
Oregon
Washington

the only ones I agree with there are NH and NM. Maine was targeted this year and Kerry still took it by 8 points. We saw how much traction the Republicans got in Washington and Oregon.

The game I'm playing here is a Populist Democrat vs. a small government, big business Republican.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I have no clue what you're thinking here.

NJ + CT: The wealthy and business-friendly go for the GOP message of small government and low taxes for corporations.
CA: A return to Republican roots.
TN, AR, TX: Fight for the little guy and "true family values" strikes a chord.
SD: Remember this is essentially a more socially conservative Minnesota.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

much as I hate to say it, Minnesota will not turn solid Democrat. Definate lean to Dem hopefully though. Same with Wisconsin and Michigan. I don't see why Iowa'd turn solid Dem, it'd be a swing state yet again. And how are any of these less in play than Washington, Oregon and Maine?

The Democrat candidate's commitment to "strong moral values" plays well in the Midwest.  The Republican candidate's libertarian values play well in Washington, Oregon, and Maine.

To make the game even more interesting: The GOP nominates the first openly gay presidential candidate.  A Log Cabinite.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Florida is still trending Dem, just more slowly. You might be right about Missouri. Colorado shifted TOWARD Kerry and is trending Dem. Nevada turned out to be basically a bellwether. I don't see how any of these would turn solid Republican.

Florida: Republicans start taking a majority of the Latino vote, and Jewish voters flock to the Elephant.
Colorado + Nevada: It's all about getting government out of their lives.

[A18]

Virginia, New York, and Massachusetts

[George W. Bush]

Depends on candidates. Obviously barring "Voinovich for President" Ohio will be a swing state...

I want him to run so bad, He is my Favorite Senator.

[angus]

Most of you are making a VERY big mistake...

You're assuming that the 2004 results reflect the partisan breakdown of the U.S

They do not.

They reflect the geographical polarisation of the U.S towards George W Bush and nothing more.

Here's an example: Bush won 65% in Oklahoma, winning every single county (some were very close, but that's neither here nor there).
In the Senate race, the Republicans held the state but won 53%. The Democratic candidate won about 30 counties, including some that voted for Bush by a landslide.
And in the open OK-2 congressional district, the Democrats held it with 66%, winning every county in the district.

Here's another example: Kerry won 43% in WV, Manchin was elected Governer with 63% and (according to the exit polls) 50% of the people who voted in WV were Democrats.

Presidential Elections never, ever reflect the partisan breakdown of the U.S.
They are between two candidates from two parties with massive variations between different members.

I don't know which states will be the swing states in 2008... it's possible that some states will flip from voting solidly for Bush/Kerry to voting solidly for the GOP/Dem nominee without going through a swing phase.

Here's a question for you all:

If (bear with this) the Democrats nominated Gene Taylor, and the GOP nominated Bill Weld, what would a map look like?

that was exactly my point last night.  sure, it was hard to make through the fog of smoke and stench of the Maker's Mark Kentucky Bourbon, but in the light of day, and the pounding of my head, I repeat:  these predictions are based on faulty assumptions.

Mine was more along the lines of a Giuliani vs Edwards vein, but the general impression remains valid.  Any state, except maybe DC, ID, UT, and WY, can be a swing state.

[Ben.]

Who are some social conservative Democrats? I don't know of any.

Gov.Mark Warner, Sn.Blanche Lincoln, Gov.Ed Rendell, Sn.Evan Bayh, Sn.Mary Landrieu, Sn.Bob Graham, Sn. Ernest "Fritz" Hollings, Sn.Robert C. Byrd,  Sn.John Breaux, Sn.Jo Lieberman, Gov.Phil Bredesen, Sn.Ben Nelson, Sn.Bill Nelson, Sn.Byron Dorgan, Sn.Kent Conrad, Sn.Mark Pryor, Rep. Joe Baca, Rep. Marion Berry, Sanford Bishop, Rep. Leonard Boswell, Rep. Allen Boyd Rep. Dennis Cardoza, Rep. Brad Carson (sadly missed), Rep. Ed Case, Rep. Bud Cramer, Rep. Lincoln Davis, Rep. Harold Ford, Jr, Rep. Jane Harman, Rep. Baron Hill, Rep. Tim Holden, Rep. Steve Israel, Rep. Chris John (sadly missed), Rep. William Lipinski, Rep. Ken Lucas, Rep. Jim Matheson, Rep. Mike McIntyre, Rep. Mike Michaud, Rep. Dennis Moore, Rep. Collin Peterson, Rep. Earl Pomeroy, Rep. Mike Ross, Rep. Loretta Sanchez, Rep. Max Sandlin, Rep. Adam Schiff, Rep. David Scott,  Rep. Charlie Stenholm, Rep. John Tanner,  Rep. Ellen Tauscher,
Rep. Gene Taylor, Rep. Mike Thompson, Rep. Jim Turner and Rep. Stephanie Herseth...       

Which of these people are pro-life?

Depends what you class as pro-life? If you mean a total complete ban no matter what the circumstances then even President Bush and about 2/3rds of the GOP aren’t pro-life. So assuming that pro-life includes those who are in favour of restrictions on abortion but upholding Roe vs Wade in a limited form then all of them… if however your talking about people who are more definite in their opposition, I can’t be sure about most of the Reps but these are the ones I’m sure of…

Gov.Mark Warner, Sn.Blanche Lincoln, Sn.Evan Bayh, Sn.Mary Landrieu, Sn.Bob Graham, Sn. Ernest "Fritz" Hollings, Sn.Robert C. Byrd,  Sn.John Breaux, Gov.Phil Bredesen, Sn.Ben Nelson, Sn.Bill Nelson, Sn.Byron Dorgan, Sn.Kent Conrad, Sn.Mark Pryor, Rep. Brad Carson, Rep. Harold Ford, Jr, Rep. Rep. Tim Holden, Chris John…

these are the ones I’m certain of, there are many more but I’m not going to name one unless I’m pretty sure about it.  

[wow]

If the GOP choose Guiliani (and he's in the lead according to a recent poll), then a few Northeast states could open up here.  Definitely NY--  I heard about a poll from a few months ago pitting Guiliani against Hillary in NY; Guiliani won by 7 pts.  Connecticut and New Jersey, I believe, would be in play as well.