TX-23: Republican internal poll shows Republican leading (surprising, I know)

[JohnnyLongtorso]

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/eyeon2010/2010/08/texas-canseco-rodriguez-poll.html

Quico Canseco (R) - 43
Ciro Rodriguez (D) - 37

[ajc0918]

I hope Canseco wins, I can't stand Ciro.

[Sam Spade]

This CD is too hyper-partisan for either the R or D to get much below 45%.

That being said, if Rasmussen is right and Obama's approval in Texas is 34%, it would suggest that the border regions in this CD do not approve of Obama.  If that translates into non-votes for Ciro, he will be in big trouble.

[Dgov]

This CD is too hyper-partisan for either the R or D to get much below 45%.

That being said, if Rasmussen is right and Obama's approval in Texas is 34%, it would suggest that the border regions in this CD do not approve of Obama.  If that translates into non-votes for Ciro, he will be in big trouble.

Obama won this district narrowly in 2008 (50-49 i believe), so for Ciro to hold on he basically has to attract some McCain voters.  He only won 56% in 2008, which suggests that Canseco leading is not unlikely, given that a 5-6 point shift from 2008, especially in a 60-ish Percent Hispanic district, is to be expected.

[Brittain33]

Canseco has a big problem with past unpaid taxes, which keeps him from being Generic R.

http://www.mysanantonio.com/news/politics/candidatehas_faced715000in_liens_97997849.html

[Torie]

The district is semi marginal, so if Ciro has problems with his personal ethics, it is not that much of a surprise, particularly in this election cycle.

Addendum: Oh, it is the the GOP guy with problems. Well, that suggests that the Dems this year look to do as well with Hispanics in Texas, as it appears they will do in California. No wonder Obama is flogging the immigration issue. It makes sense, in that sense.

[Sam Spade]

Canseco has a big problem with past unpaid taxes, which keeps him from being Generic R.

http://www.mysanantonio.com/news/politics/candidatehas_faced715000in_liens_97997849.html

That's probably balanced out by his name in this area of Texas. 

Anyway, the available swing portion of this CD is probably not greater than 10% for any candidate.  Turnout may be more important than swinging voters, actually, now that I think about it.

[Torie]

Canseco has a big problem with past unpaid taxes, which keeps him from being Generic R.

http://www.mysanantonio.com/news/politics/candidatehas_faced715000in_liens_97997849.html

That's probably balanced out by his name in this area of Texas. 

Anyway, the available swing portion of this CD is probably not greater than 10% for any candidate.  Turnout may be more important than swinging voters, actually, now that I think about it.

Yes, the Dems will be hurt more by low Hispanic turnout than by vote switching, but there will be some vote switching.

[Sam Spade]

Canseco has a big problem with past unpaid taxes, which keeps him from being Generic R.

http://www.mysanantonio.com/news/politics/candidatehas_faced715000in_liens_97997849.html

That's probably balanced out by his name in this area of Texas. 

Anyway, the available swing portion of this CD is probably not greater than 10% for any candidate.  Turnout may be more important than swinging voters, actually, now that I think about it.

Yes, the Dems will be hurt more by low Hispanic turnout than by vote switching, but there will be some vote switching.

Be forewarned though - Ciro is always very good at turning out his voters in the San Antonio barrios even if the numbers and his lack of money indicate otherwise.  This does not mean, of course, spectacular turnout, but it means the Hispanic turnout will likely be slightly higher than statewide average, specifically in the Bexar County part of this CD only.

[Torie]

Canseco has a big problem with past unpaid taxes, which keeps him from being Generic R.

http://www.mysanantonio.com/news/politics/candidatehas_faced715000in_liens_97997849.html

That's probably balanced out by his name in this area of Texas.  

Anyway, the available swing portion of this CD is probably not greater than 10% for any candidate.  Turnout may be more important than swinging voters, actually, now that I think about it.

Yes, the Dems will be hurt more by low Hispanic turnout than by vote switching, but there will be some vote switching.

Be forewarned though - Ciro is always very good at turning out his voters in the San Antonio barrios even if the numbers and his lack of money indicate otherwise.  This does not mean, of course, spectacular turnout, but it means the Hispanic turnout will likely be slightly higher than statewide average, specifically in the Bexar County part of this CD only.

Yes, I agree. That precise area may be the [most] politicized (and organized) Hispanic area in the US come to think of it (outside of course of the Cuban community). What do you think?

[The Mikado]

As Sam's stated, this is a district with a very...unique political culture and national trends aren't what I'd base my bets on here.  That said, Ciro is likely in pretty serious trouble, especially since he's not that impressive a politician to begin with.  He's hardly sunk, though.