the black vote in 2030
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  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: 15 Down, 35 To Go)
  the black vote in 2030
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Poll
Question: what will it be like?
#1
pre-New Deal (solidly Republican)
 
#2
50s/60s (split 50/50)
 
#3
late 60s/70s/early 80s (70/30 Dem)
 
#4
mid-late 80s/early 90s (80/20 Dem)
 
#5
mid-late 90s/today (you know)
 
#6
leaning Republican, but not solidly
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 73

Author Topic: the black vote in 2030  (Read 7929 times)
they don't love you like i love you
BRTD
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« on: November 05, 2004, 11:41:27 PM »

I'm going to have to say option 3 due to the black community upward class mobility. But we'll make up for it.
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danwxman
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« Reply #1 on: November 05, 2004, 11:46:39 PM »

85% Democrat
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Horus
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« Reply #2 on: November 06, 2004, 12:07:18 AM »

83% Dem
10% GOP
7% Some black special interest party that might develop in some places
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J. J.
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« Reply #3 on: November 06, 2004, 12:21:11 AM »

My guess is that the emerging Black middle class will trend GOP.  There is a growing cultural gap, and I get a large number of "You live where," comments from Black suburbanites.

"Urban" may mean, "relating to the city" in 25 years.
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Alcon
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« Reply #4 on: November 06, 2004, 12:28:44 AM »

75% Democrat
20% Republican
5% Other

100% me having no way of knowing this.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #5 on: November 06, 2004, 12:40:04 AM »

The Republicans can't do anything that would gain them the Black vote, but the Democrats could lose it.  The situation is analagous to the solid Democratic South of the first half of the 20th Century.
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dazzleman
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« Reply #6 on: November 06, 2004, 07:16:07 AM »

I think that eventually, the black vote will become more competitive as new generations come and upward mobility continues.

For older black voters who lived through the 1960s, their attachment to the Democratic Party is highly emotional, and not subject to change.  But succeeding generations will lose that connection, particularly those who are upwardly mobile economically.

I don't think that any demographic group can be considered assimilated and politically mature when they're voting monolithically for one party.  This type of voting is a sign of alienation from the mainstream.  Other demographic groups eventually outgrow this type of voting, and I hope that blacks will eventually also.

One major positive sign that I saw this year, which was largely unnoticed, was the poor showing Al Sharpton had among black voters.  In 1988, Jesse Jackson performed very well among black voters, and there was a danger (for the Democrats) that he would capture enough delegates to get the nomination (which would have led to a 50-state defeat for the Democrats).  That year, it seemed black voters voted for Jackson simply because he was black.  The fact that Sharpton didn't enjoy similar undeserved support is a positive sign of political maturation.
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DaleC76
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« Reply #7 on: November 06, 2004, 12:24:26 PM »

If Republicans can ever capture the Black religious vote, then the numbers may change.  There's really no way of knowing or predicting, but something tells me they won't vote as much as a block in the future.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #8 on: November 06, 2004, 02:24:02 PM »

Well, as the current 9-1 split is hard to top, it's more likely than not that Republicans will slowly start getting a hadnful more Black votes...maybe move it back to 6-1 or 4-1...then again, it doesn't have to be. It's not unimaginable at all (though unlikely) that Reps would lose even those 10% of the Black vote they now have.
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Sulfur
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« Reply #9 on: November 06, 2004, 02:39:19 PM »

By 2030, I think the black vote will be pretty evenly divided.
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DanielX
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« Reply #10 on: November 06, 2004, 05:55:35 PM »

70/30 seems reasonable.
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Christopher
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« Reply #11 on: November 07, 2004, 01:08:56 AM »

It is difficult to say judging from what leadership and policy changes America will forsee in the next 25 years...however I would say that 70/30 for the Dems would be verly likely due to the religous (and culture as a whole) factors and the class factors as mentioned by some earlier
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© tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #12 on: November 07, 2004, 08:28:25 AM »

80/20.
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Biden his time
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« Reply #13 on: May 21, 2021, 03:34:02 PM »

85/15 seems reasonable, now that we have some 17 years more worth of data.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #14 on: May 21, 2021, 04:05:29 PM »

interesting to see what people thought on this topic 15 years ago.
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EastwoodS
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« Reply #15 on: May 21, 2021, 04:16:33 PM »

85/15 seems reasonable, now that we have some 17 years more worth of data.
Younger black voters were voting more Republican than their elders according to 2020 exit polls. 70/30 doesn’t even seem unreasonable.
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Tartarus Sauce
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« Reply #16 on: May 21, 2021, 05:32:12 PM »

85/15 seems reasonable, now that we have some 17 years more worth of data.
Younger black voters were voting more Republican than their elders according to 2020 exit polls. 70/30 doesn’t even seem unreasonable.

It seems very unreasonable, actually. 85/15 seems more reasonable a guess.
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EastwoodS
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« Reply #17 on: May 21, 2021, 05:33:29 PM »

85/15 seems reasonable, now that we have some 17 years more worth of data.
Younger black voters were voting more Republican than their elders according to 2020 exit polls. 70/30 doesn’t even seem unreasonable.

It seems very unreasonable, actually. 85/15 seems more reasonable a guess.
eh, 80/20
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David Hume
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« Reply #18 on: May 22, 2021, 08:28:14 PM »

#2 is not accurate. From new deal to before 1960s, black voted much more dem than rep, at least 60 v 40.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #19 on: May 22, 2021, 10:54:30 PM »

#2 is not accurate. From new deal to before 1960s, black voted much more dem than rep, at least 60 v 40.
The Republican who most recently won the black vote in a presidential election was probably Hoover in 1932.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #20 on: May 23, 2021, 11:10:55 PM »

2030 is not as far away as you guys think, that's only 9 year away.

It'll look largely similar to numbers we see today.
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Xing
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« Reply #21 on: May 24, 2021, 09:49:07 PM »

I could see something like 80/20, but we’ll have to see if there are any platform changes between now and then.
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Non Swing Voter
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« Reply #22 on: May 24, 2021, 11:14:37 PM »

The GOP is tripling down on blatant racism.  Why would they improve with the black vote any time soon?  people don't have that short a memory.
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Chips
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« Reply #23 on: May 24, 2021, 11:20:48 PM »

87-13 in 2028. 84-16 in 2032 both on two-party vote.
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ملكة كرينجيتوك
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« Reply #24 on: May 24, 2021, 11:29:00 PM »

The GOP is tripling down on blatant racism.  Why would they improve with the black vote any time soon?  people don't have that short a memory.

1) Not all black voters are ADOS, and non-ADOS black folks were never as Titanium D as ADOS folks even though they're still very D. (This is partly why I'm skeptical of reagente's 2020 estimates for black voters).

2) The GOP's racism isn't solely directed at black people.


My guess is anywhere from 88-12 to 80-20. Depends on how much ADOS voters trend R by, and whether the increasing immigrant Black population changes things.
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