RISK Domination VII: Finished!!

[Bacon King]

Sorry, I've been really sick through most of the past week and haven't really been on the forum at all.

[Bacon King]

Sorry, I've been really sick through most of the past week and haven't really been on the forum at all.

Sorry to hear that, I hope you're feeling better now. 

I've still got a bit of a cough, but it's mostly over with I was afraid I had gotten mono, as a couple of friends have gotten it recently, but thankfully it seems like all I had was a bad cold.

[Bacon King]

Two in MI, one in OH.

Attack OH -> PA with both available armies, stop if they lose the first time.

Attack MI -> IN -> KY, do or die.

Attack WV -> VA until I win or am down to three armies in WV.

[Bacon King]

Free move from Pennsylvania to West Virginia and end turn.

[Bacon King]

First off, allow me to state my intentions to my esteemed neighbor to the South regarding our mutual border: my soldiers will not violate the 36°30'N parallel if you respect the peace as well. Consider it our own Missouri Compromise.

I'll place all three reinforcements in West Virginia.

Attack KY-IL-MN do or die, leaving two soldiers instead of one behind in both KY and IL.

Attack WV-VA-MD, do or die.

Assuming neither of my attacks have gone horribly wrong, free move everyone from MD to PA.

[Bacon King]

"herp derp". I meant WI not MN!

[Bacon King]

Just a note here, Blue, to make sure you don't actually take over PA, if you knock me down to two armies you'd have to be attacking me with one one army. That'd be a disadvantage for you. But if you don't do this and accidentally take PA you'd be forced to have your soldiers in PA or free move em back to New York so your plan here (which I'm fairly certain I understand, though I dunno if this is your own initiative or active cohesion ).

But still, you might want to clarify to Joe what you'd want to do in that situation.


or you could just not attack, y'know    

[Bacon King]

onoz

[Bacon King]

Ahhh....

One in OH. Three in IL. IL-MO-IA do or die but stop if I'm down to only rolling one attack die. Free move so that my forces are equal between MO and IA with the extra if it's an odd number going in MO. If the attack into IA stops free move that guy back to IL. That's all.

[Bacon King]

No offense? Someone should put Maro out of his misery next turn.

Aye. If Jas can't finish him off then his cards are basically fezzy's only chance for a comeback.

[Bacon King]

Okay, third round. If I haven't forgotten statistics, and assuming there's two wild cards like in normal risk, and also assuming everyone got a card every turn, then there's about a 37.2% chance of any given player having a set of cards to turn in right now. Of course whoever has a set of cards could just hold onto them, but still.

[Bacon King]

Tradin' in some cards!



So there's the two bonus that go into Indiana since I control it, yes?

Besides that, I will spend my 14 reinforcements like so:

5 in MO
3 in WI
2 in OH
2 in KY
2 in IA

Attack WI-MN, free move IN-KY, and end turn.

[Bacon King]

New round, new card maths.

I have one card, everyone else has four.

With there being 14 of each card type not turned in as well as the presumably two wild cards, and assuming every player that had a 10 army set (with a chance to turn it in!) turned cards in last turn-

Jas has a 70.1% chance of having a set to turn in.
(52.8% chance for a 10 army set, 5.7% chance for each of 8, 6, 4 army sets)
Mikado, Fezzy, and Gustaf each have an 80.5% chance of having a set to turn in.
(28% for a 10 army set, 17.5% for each of 8, 6, 4 army sets)


Basically Jas has a potentially huge advantage here if he got lucky with the cards he picked up from MB. And I feel suddenly I am in a very precarious position from all sides


In addition, just for fun, here are the odds that each card a given player has is currently a state controlled by that player:

Mikado: 14%
Jas: 16%
Fezzy: 14%
Gustaf: 20%
Bacon King: 20%

[Bacon King]

Basically Jas has a potentially huge advantage here if he got lucky with the cards he picked up from MB. And I feel suddenly I am in a very precarious position from all sides

I don't think I've got much by way of advantage at all - I'm the only player without a region
and have fewer troops than anyone other than fezzy.

I'd happily swap positions with yourself, Mikado or Gustaf.

Eh, I have a pretty bad suspicion that I'm going to be the next one to go. Being stuck right in the middle of everything is not a good place to be.

[Bacon King]

5 in OH, 2 in KY, 2 in MN, 2 in IA, 1 in MO

MO-KS do or die, free move all KS-MO and end turn.

[Bacon King]

WOW. Now that is luck.

[Bacon King]

Where fezzy be? Still in shock from that victory?

[Bacon King]

All in OH. OH-WV (stop this attack if I get down to ten dudes or less in OH, and wait for further orders), then WV-MD-DE-NJ-PA do or die. Free move everyone PA-OH and end turn.

[Bacon King]

Ah, continue the attack, stop again if I lose another three.

[Bacon King]

Sigh. Here it goes again.

OH-PA-NJ-DE-MD do or die. (If this doesn't make it all the way, stop and wait for more orders).
KY-WV do or die, stop if I lose more than four. Place only three in WV. (Again, if this doesn't work, stop and wait for more orders).

Assuming that all goes well, then standby for my free move.

[Bacon King]

Sigh. Free move MD to PA and end turn.

[Bacon King]

Still deciding on what exactly to do. This is a very important turn, of course. Mikado's right in that while I probably can't win this, I'm basically picking who does win this. I probably won't send in my moves until after class tomorrow. Definitely gotta think about this.


Speaking of cards, though, let me go ahead and turn some in:

[Bacon King]

So, by my count I have 32 reinforcements plus a bonus 2 in PA.

Please distribute the 32 units as follows:

23 in PA
3 in KY
3 in WV
3 in MO

Attack MO-AR, place only 3 in AR.
Attack PA-NJ-NY-CT-RI-MA do or die and wait for further orders.

[Bacon King]

BOO

Sorry fezzy

BUT ITS MOD GAEM NOW!

[Bacon King]

MA-VT-NH-ME do or die