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Author Topic: Trends of the States  (Read 5521 times)
Derek
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« Reply #25 on: June 23, 2010, 09:52:17 pm »

I suppose this would be my guess:


Trust me, Oklahoma is not in any way shape or form trending Democratic.  Hell, McCain had the best electoral performance (by numbers) since Reagan in this state despite it being an almost landslide election for Obama.
That, and this state is so socially conservative that only DINOs can get elected to office (and even then, like in Brad Carson's case, they still have a hell of a time trying to convince people that they aren't the same as those evil bleedingheart Democrats).

So you honestly see Oklahoma getting more Republican than it already is? Will it break 70% GOP in the next presidential election?

If things go really badly for Obama then yes I could easily see Oklahoma breaking 70%.  Hell, Oklahoma will probably trend even more Republican if Obama is somewhat successful (and if a conservative Republican is nominated).  However, if moderate heroes somehow take over the GOP, then yes Oklahoma could very easily say "screw you northeast establishment" and trend Democrat.

Also, many states in the so-called "Solid South" were the most solid during the early 1900's than they were the late 1800's.....................

Well Oklahoma wasn't even a state until the early 1900s. It was kind of a swing state except during the FDR-Truman era. Richard Nixon did break 70% there in 1972, and Ronald Reagan came close.

I'm saying that in current situation (where a tea party candidate, conservative, or libertarian candidate is likely to get the nod) it is likely that Oklahoma will stay pretty solid GOP.  I know Oklahoma wasn't a state until early 1900s smart guy, I was using example of states in the SOLID SOUTH (in other words examples of states that didn't include Oklahoma) to demonstrate that it is possible for states to be more solid than 70%.

But Texas and Kansas will trend Democratic?

I'm not very sure on Kansas, but Texas is real possibility considering the influx of hispanic immigration that traditionally favors Democrats.  Arizona depends on who will win out in the most recent immigration debate: those in support of stronger border enforcement of those who are against it.  I also see the rustbelt trending GOP due to decrease in population (especially in places like Minnesota and Michigan).

And PA, which is just super. Michigan will never be GOP because Detroit is full of blacks, who vote Dem despite nothing getting better.

Wow, what part of PA are you from anyhow? I'm in Pittsburgh.
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« Reply #26 on: June 23, 2010, 10:10:39 pm »

I suppose this would be my guess:


Trust me, Oklahoma is not in any way shape or form trending Democratic.  Hell, McCain had the best electoral performance (by numbers) since Reagan in this state despite it being an almost landslide election for Obama.
That, and this state is so socially conservative that only DINOs can get elected to office (and even then, like in Brad Carson's case, they still have a hell of a time trying to convince people that they aren't the same as those evil bleedingheart Democrats).

So you honestly see Oklahoma getting more Republican than it already is? Will it break 70% GOP in the next presidential election?

If things go really badly for Obama then yes I could easily see Oklahoma breaking 70%.  Hell, Oklahoma will probably trend even more Republican if Obama is somewhat successful (and if a conservative Republican is nominated).  However, if moderate heroes somehow take over the GOP, then yes Oklahoma could very easily say "screw you northeast establishment" and trend Democrat.

Also, many states in the so-called "Solid South" were the most solid during the early 1900's than they were the late 1800's.....................

Well Oklahoma wasn't even a state until the early 1900s. It was kind of a swing state except during the FDR-Truman era. Richard Nixon did break 70% there in 1972, and Ronald Reagan came close.

I'm saying that in current situation (where a tea party candidate, conservative, or libertarian candidate is likely to get the nod) it is likely that Oklahoma will stay pretty solid GOP.  I know Oklahoma wasn't a state until early 1900s smart guy, I was using example of states in the SOLID SOUTH (in other words examples of states that didn't include Oklahoma) to demonstrate that it is possible for states to be more solid than 70%.

But Texas and Kansas will trend Democratic?

I'm not very sure on Kansas, but Texas is real possibility considering the influx of hispanic immigration that traditionally favors Democrats.  Arizona depends on who will win out in the most recent immigration debate: those in support of stronger border enforcement of those who are against it.  I also see the rustbelt trending GOP due to decrease in population (especially in places like Minnesota and Michigan).

And PA, which is just super. Michigan will never be GOP because Detroit is full of blacks, who vote Dem despite nothing getting better.

Wow, what part of PA are you from anyhow? I'm in Pittsburgh.

Allentown. Pittsburgh is quite nice.
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« Reply #27 on: June 26, 2010, 01:01:13 pm »

Here's my guess (for years around 2015-2020) :

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« Reply #28 on: June 26, 2010, 02:19:13 pm »

Here's my guess (for years around 2015-2020) :



I don't think so.
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« Reply #29 on: June 26, 2010, 02:36:23 pm »



My Prediction:  Essentially, Democratic leaning areas will be trending more Republican and Republican leaning areas will be treanding Democratic.  I expect that in 20-40 years, the South, New England, and West Coast will be among the most competitive areas in the nations.  Maybe with California or New York becoming the "ultimate" swing state.  I think that after this tea-party nonsense dies down the moderate wing of the Republican party will start to rise and begin to attract upper-middle class voters who are traditionally economically moderate and socially liberal.
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« Reply #30 on: June 26, 2010, 02:48:42 pm »



My Prediction:  Essentially, Democratic leaning areas will be trending more Republican and Republican leaning areas will be treanding Democratic.  I expect that in 20-40 years, the South, New England, and West Coast will be among the most competitive areas in the nations.  Maybe with California or New York becoming the "ultimate" swing state.  I think that after this tea-party nonsense dies down the moderate wing of the Republican party will start to rise and begin to attract upper-middle class voters who are traditionally economically moderate and socially liberal.

Hmm, you don't like the tea party?
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« Reply #31 on: June 26, 2010, 04:13:25 pm »



My Prediction:  Essentially, Democratic leaning areas will be trending more Republican and Republican leaning areas will be treanding Democratic.  I expect that in 20-40 years, the South, New England, and West Coast will be among the most competitive areas in the nations.  Maybe with California or New York becoming the "ultimate" swing state.  I think that after this tea-party nonsense dies down the moderate wing of the Republican party will start to rise and begin to attract upper-middle class voters who are traditionally economically moderate and socially liberal.

Hmm, you don't like the tea party?

No I don't.  I believe that balanced budgets are a great thing to have, but not at the expense of the welfare of the poor and the elderly.  A civil society is more important than a balanced budget.  I think that the Tea Party is eerily reminiscent of the Know Nothing Party of the 1850's and if the Republican Party doesn't reign them end then the GOP will begin to lose respect from anybody with even half a mind.  The GOP needs to make it clear that they are not the "Tea Party" Party and instead move to take more moderate positions on economic issues and liberal positions on social issues.   But this question is unrelated to how the states are trending so it should be discussed no further. 
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TN - Randy Boyd (R)

VA - Ed Gillespie (R)
Derek
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« Reply #32 on: June 26, 2010, 04:28:37 pm »



My Prediction:  Essentially, Democratic leaning areas will be trending more Republican and Republican leaning areas will be treanding Democratic.  I expect that in 20-40 years, the South, New England, and West Coast will be among the most competitive areas in the nations.  Maybe with California or New York becoming the "ultimate" swing state.  I think that after this tea-party nonsense dies down the moderate wing of the Republican party will start to rise and begin to attract upper-middle class voters who are traditionally economically moderate and socially liberal.

Hmm, you don't like the tea party?

No I don't.  I believe that balanced budgets are a great thing to have, but not at the expense of the welfare of the poor and the elderly.  A civil society is more important than a balanced budget.  I think that the Tea Party is eerily reminiscent of the Know Nothing Party of the 1850's and if the Republican Party doesn't reign them end then the GOP will begin to lose respect from anybody with even half a mind.  The GOP needs to make it clear that they are not the "Tea Party" Party and instead move to take more moderate positions on economic issues and liberal positions on social issues.   But this question is unrelated to how the states are trending so it should be discussed no further. 

I can see it dividing the GOP but also see alot of independents joining it and even conservative democrats. The GOP balanced the budget in the 90's and still managed to include social security and unemployment benefits.
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« Reply #33 on: June 26, 2010, 04:32:58 pm »



My Prediction:  Essentially, Democratic leaning areas will be trending more Republican and Republican leaning areas will be treanding Democratic.  I expect that in 20-40 years, the South, New England, and West Coast will be among the most competitive areas in the nations.  Maybe with California or New York becoming the "ultimate" swing state.  I think that after this tea-party nonsense dies down the moderate wing of the Republican party will start to rise and begin to attract upper-middle class voters who are traditionally economically moderate and socially liberal.

Hmm, you don't like the tea party?

No I don't.  I believe that balanced budgets are a great thing to have, but not at the expense of the welfare of the poor and the elderly.  A civil society is more important than a balanced budget.  I think that the Tea Party is eerily reminiscent of the Know Nothing Party of the 1850's and if the Republican Party doesn't reign them end then the GOP will begin to lose respect from anybody with even half a mind.  The GOP needs to make it clear that they are not the "Tea Party" Party and instead move to take more moderate positions on economic issues and liberal positions on social issues.   But this question is unrelated to how the states are trending so it should be discussed no further. 

I can see it dividing the GOP but also see alot of independents joining it and even conservative democrats. The GOP balanced the budget in the 90's and still managed to include social security and unemployment benefits.

But the Tea Party only appeals to working class, Conservative Christian, white voters a demographic that is shrinking rapidly and being replaced with moderate suburban, upper middle class Whites.
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CA - Gavin Newsom (D)
FL - Adam Putnam (R)
GA - Brian Kemp (R)
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MI - Bill Schutte (R)
TN - Randy Boyd (R)

VA - Ed Gillespie (R)
Derek
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« Reply #34 on: June 26, 2010, 10:13:10 pm »



My Prediction:  Essentially, Democratic leaning areas will be trending more Republican and Republican leaning areas will be treanding Democratic.  I expect that in 20-40 years, the South, New England, and West Coast will be among the most competitive areas in the nations.  Maybe with California or New York becoming the "ultimate" swing state.  I think that after this tea-party nonsense dies down the moderate wing of the Republican party will start to rise and begin to attract upper-middle class voters who are traditionally economically moderate and socially liberal.

Hmm, you don't like the tea party?

No I don't.  I believe that balanced budgets are a great thing to have, but not at the expense of the welfare of the poor and the elderly.  A civil society is more important than a balanced budget.  I think that the Tea Party is eerily reminiscent of the Know Nothing Party of the 1850's and if the Republican Party doesn't reign them end then the GOP will begin to lose respect from anybody with even half a mind.  The GOP needs to make it clear that they are not the "Tea Party" Party and instead move to take more moderate positions on economic issues and liberal positions on social issues.   But this question is unrelated to how the states are trending so it should be discussed no further. 

I can see it dividing the GOP but also see alot of independents joining it and even conservative democrats. The GOP balanced the budget in the 90's and still managed to include social security and unemployment benefits.

But the Tea Party only appeals to working class, Conservative Christian, white voters a demographic that is shrinking rapidly and being replaced with moderate suburban, upper middle class Whites.

That's because everyone else has a locked mindset. I consider what you're saying a good thing.
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« Reply #35 on: June 27, 2010, 04:01:08 am »

Here's my guess (for years around 2015-2020) :



I don't think so.

Could you develop, please ?
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Derek
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« Reply #36 on: June 27, 2010, 12:59:56 pm »

Here's my guess (for years around 2015-2020) :



I don't think so.

Could you develop, please ?

Arizona's enforcement of immigration, Texas' new school books, I lived in FL and it's about the most socially conservative place in the country. Those colors are all false.
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Antonio V
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« Reply #37 on: June 27, 2010, 01:10:02 pm »

Here's my guess (for years around 2015-2020) :



I don't think so.

Could you develop, please ?

Arizona's enforcement of immigration, Texas' new school books, I lived in FL and it's about the most socially conservative place in the country. Those colors are all false.

In the case you didn't notice, this thread is about things could evolve in the future, not about what they are as of now.
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« Reply #38 on: June 27, 2010, 02:08:05 pm »

Here's what I think it will be ten years from now (2020):



Mainly, I think the GOP will become more socially moderate and appeal more to professionals, additionally I think they'll moderate rhetorically and make gains with minorities. On the other hand, Democrats will gain in rural farming areas and the working-class south. Furthermore, as the rust belt working-class areas lose factory and union workers, Republicans will naturally make gains.
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« Reply #39 on: June 27, 2010, 02:18:02 pm »

Regression to the mean.

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Derek
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« Reply #40 on: June 27, 2010, 02:50:54 pm »

Here's my guess (for years around 2015-2020) :



I don't think so.

Could you develop, please ?

Arizona's enforcement of immigration, Texas' new school books, I lived in FL and it's about the most socially conservative place in the country. Those colors are all false.

In the case you didn't notice, this thread is about things could evolve in the future, not about what they are as of now.

I started this thread. As of now which way do you think the states are going. Not in the future. Cute though.
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« Reply #41 on: June 27, 2010, 02:52:01 pm »

Here's what I think it will be ten years from now (2020):



Mainly, I think the GOP will become more socially moderate and appeal more to professionals, additionally I think they'll moderate rhetorically and make gains with minorities. On the other hand, Democrats will gain in rural farming areas and the working-class south. Furthermore, as the rust belt working-class areas lose factory and union workers, Republicans will naturally make gains.

I agree with the latest part there, but this is more for which way you see the states trending as we speak. People are looking too far ahead.
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« Reply #42 on: June 28, 2010, 02:26:31 pm »

Here's my guess (for years around 2015-2020) :



I don't think so.

Could you develop, please ?

Arizona's enforcement of immigration, Texas' new school books, I lived in FL and it's about the most socially conservative place in the country. Those colors are all false.

In the case you didn't notice, this thread is about things could evolve in the future, not about what they are as of now.

I started this thread. As of now which way do you think the states are going. Not in the future. Cute though.

Well, that's stupid. Trying to make guesses about how things are now makes no sense : there are election data for that.
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« Reply #43 on: June 28, 2010, 04:37:24 pm »



My Prediction:  Essentially, Democratic leaning areas will be trending more Republican and Republican leaning areas will be treanding Democratic.  I expect that in 20-40 years, the South, New England, and West Coast will be among the most competitive areas in the nations.  Maybe with California or New York becoming the "ultimate" swing state.  I think that after this tea-party nonsense dies down the moderate wing of the Republican party will start to rise and begin to attract upper-middle class voters who are traditionally economically moderate and socially liberal.

Hmm, you don't like the tea party?

No I don't.  I believe that balanced budgets are a great thing to have, but not at the expense of the welfare of the poor and the elderly.  A civil society is more important than a balanced budget.  I think that the Tea Party is eerily reminiscent of the Know Nothing Party of the 1850's and if the Republican Party doesn't reign them end then the GOP will begin to lose respect from anybody with even half a mind.  The GOP needs to make it clear that they are not the "Tea Party" Party and instead move to take more moderate positions on economic issues and liberal positions on social issues.   But this question is unrelated to how the states are trending so it should be discussed no further. 

I can see it dividing the GOP but also see alot of independents joining it and even conservative democrats. The GOP balanced the budget in the 90's and still managed to include social security and unemployment benefits.

But the Tea Party only appeals to working class, Conservative Christian, white voters a demographic that is shrinking rapidly and being replaced with moderate suburban, upper middle class Whites.

When the tea party dies, will be when the economy is stronger and the budgets in the better condition. Then we will return to, 2007. Sad Not exactly a good scenario for moderates. Abortion, gays, guns, school prayer, and creationism will rise back up in importance. Trust me this situation, this current environment is an improvement for moderates. I agree the Tea Party is a threat but its also an opportunity if taken advantage of properly. I think after it is over, it will be the deluge for all social moderates and social liberals.
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« Reply #44 on: June 28, 2010, 05:14:43 pm »

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« Reply #45 on: June 28, 2010, 08:47:24 pm »



You still see the Dakotas moving to the right? Why Kansas? Other than that I pretty much agree.
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« Reply #46 on: June 28, 2010, 09:43:11 pm »



Utah and Idaho moving to the left?
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