INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)

[minionofmidas]

A swing district full of suburban partisans, to boot.

Which means that my prediction is that he'll do right about as well as he would have if he were a blue dog type (ie, lose, if the wave happens on the magnitude we're expecting, and unless his opponent is total trash.)

[minionofmidas]

He's the Democratic Bachmann, obviously.

Bachmann's seat is also polarized, and not supermajority Republican - but it's still a solid majority. It's not a genuine swing district.

[minionofmidas]

The simple answer that you are avoiding is that it's a Democratic internal.

Well yeah, but it's better than we'd been expecting even for internals.

The answer is that Harris is borderline unelectable, but not flat out so. He'll need a genuine massive wave for his persona to not matter. (In which case he'd win this district by a healthy margin.)

[minionofmidas]

Something's wrong there. Probably misleadingly worded on purpose. Perhaps they mean those who say they'll "most likely" (ie probably) vote - as opposed to either the actual likely voters? I dunno.

[minionofmidas]

Is there any polling on Childers?

[minionofmidas]

Why even release an internal like that? I mean, that's basically called "conceding".

[minionofmidas]

SEIU/VoteVets for PA-08:

Patrick Murphy (D) - 49
Michael Fitzpatrick (R) - 46

D internal, I presume?

[minionofmidas]

41%-20% in late September? Really?

They probably told people some kind of scare story about Democrats immediately before they asked. And then, this is a fairly rural district that votes mostly on person rather than party.

I'm worried & a little surprised about WI-7. This oughtn't to be leaning R, like, ever. Get close at times, yes. Goes with the generally abysmal D figures in that state right now, I suppose.

[minionofmidas]

VA-11 -  Keith Fimian (R) 42.2,  Fimian (D) 36.7, 21.1  undecided.

Connolly (D).

And yeah, the source and headline would indicate you put this in the right place.

[minionofmidas]

I understand that Mass. R's are more motivated than they've been for 15 years, which a) isn't hard b) ought to make a difference to victory margins all over; but I don't see anything implying that any seat beyond the tenth might conceivably be termed genuinely competitive.
So why not give us some decent polls out of the tenth instead of all that trash?

[minionofmidas]

AZ-7:

Grijalva 42%
McClung 35%

http://azstarnet.com/news/blogs/pueblo-politics/article_38fd61a4-cc1b-11df-ab09-001cc4c002e0.html

You scared me for a second before I realized that this internal poll was released by McClung.

Doesn't seem too far out from what I would expect actually.  The district is not very Democratic.

It has the potential to be a Fool's Gold type of district... if Republicans hadn't been too intelligent to target it at all before.

[minionofmidas]

You need to add Tucson Liberals.

[minionofmidas]

I don't know if this is technically an internal, but if sure feels like one:

http://www.freep.com/article/20101008/NEWS15/10080315/1318/Poll-In-House-race-Rob-Steele-leads-John-Dingell-by-4-points#ixzz11lRK7KCa

Steele is up on Dingell 44-40

MOE: 5.6%

'parently not. Joke pollster though.

[minionofmidas]

McLaughlin & Associates/NY-4 (for Becker (R)):

McCarthy (D)(i) - 46%
Becker (R)         - 45%
Undecided         - 9%

October 6; 300 LV; MOE +/- 5.6%
------

This race has been on nobody's radar - though I said a month or so ago that people should watch it - and was ridiculed for it.  I still say this is a race to watch.

Usually when someone releases an internal showing they are behind, it's not a good sign. But even if this is a win for the Democrats, it does show that it's a decently close race which makes me wonder what's going on in more Republican districts like the 1st or the 19th.

Hall's very much the underdog in the nineteenth, though he probably won't lose badly. There was talk of a serious R challenge in the 1st earlier in the cycle but it seems to have died away.

[minionofmidas]

Some of those look quite believable... and others don't.

[minionofmidas]

John Boehner (R) - 30.4
Justin Coussoule (D) - 19.6

Lol, is that of all persons polled or what?

[minionofmidas]

I'm assuming this is an internal:
Dennis Menaced? Is Kucinich in trouble?

Kucinich is only up by 4 in a poll with an MoE of +/-5.6.  Actual percentages weren't mentioned. (OH-10)

Have you read the article? It's actually a phoned-in scare ad.

[minionofmidas]

Okay, so it's a kooky extremist messaging poll.

I was really just reacting to the hedging "I'm assuming..." thing. But maybe that was ironic. Hard to tell sometimes.

[minionofmidas]

the Republican talking head was talking about Perry in terms of his negative impact on Romney's presidential campaign.

lol talkingheads

But yeah, that does sound like this race is so over.

[minionofmidas]

NRCC for MA-10 finds Jeff Perry (R) up 44-42 over Bill Keating (D), though it's two weeks old.

DCCC for NC-11 finds Heath Shuler (D) up 54-39 over Jeff Miller (R).

Is there anymore polling going on in NC-11, or is the DCCC it? I'd love to see a more credible survey on this race. This district is historically Republican, and was in Republican hands for at least 20 years before Shuler won it in 06.

When one candidate releases internals showing himself well up, and the other candidate doesn't release any internals at all, it *tends to* mean their own internals agree with the other side's assessment.
Meanwhile, when one side releases internals showing themselves tied or worse but at least a lot better than the last few cycles, and the other side doesn't release anything, it *tends to* mean they have reason not to consider the opponent worthy of attention.

[minionofmidas]

Whenever citing PVI while talking about House races, please remember that Democrats tend to underpoll (or Republicans tend to overpoll, use whichever you like) in presidential races in poor and/or nonmetropolitan areas compared to their actual strength there, which is more evident in House races.
Thank you.

[minionofmidas]

Ah yes, the Native American's Jesse Helms.