VA-05: SurveyUSA: Putting the Hurt on Perriello

[Rowan]

In an election for US House of Representatives in Virginia's 5th Congressional District today, 09/02/10, Republican State Senator Robert Hurt defeats incumbent Democrat Tom Perriello 61% to 35%, according to this latest exclusive WDBJ-TV poll conducted by SurveyUSA.

Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released 6 weeks ago, little has changed; Hurt is up a nominal 3 points; Perriello is flat. Hurt has increased his lead among men, younger voters, independents, and lower-income voters, and now is at or above 62% among each of those groups.

Perriello, who defeated 6-term Republican Virgil Goode by 727 votes in 2008, today is above 50% only among blacks, Democrats, moderates, liberals, those with unfavorable opinions of the Tea Party movement, and pro-choice voters -- none of which are majority groups among likely voters in Virginia's 5th district.
 
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=c99d02f1-c85b-48f7-b4ea-b11209a4dc71

[Meeker]

Can't we trade a sh**tty Democrat like Lapinski or Harman for Perriello?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Yikes. Looks like Blanche Lincoln has some competition.

[East Coast Republican]

Can't we trade a sh**tty Democrat like Lapinski or Harman for Perriello?

No.  It's all over for the Democrats in this district.

All over.

[DrScholl]

This one is likely to flip, but not by this much. A Republican polls a few weeks ago showed a much closer race, so we'll see what happens.

[Dan the Roman]

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=1997ee6b-a22d-4cee-b505-c879d51f9bc4

This is a weird district to poll.

[Ronnie]

OUCH!

[Associate Justice PiT]

     Perriello boasts a majority not only among liberals, but also among moderates, & he is still losing by 26%? How did he win in the first place if this is such a phenomenally conservative district?

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

I think it will be closer than this. A republican internal showed Hurt leading by 6 a few weeks back. SUSA has been very bullish on the Republicans in the Virginia districts and many House races, which leads me to think they are expecting huge Republican/Conservative turnout along with very little moderate and Democratic turnout.

It's very possible that it might happen that way but it seems like SUSA is showing numbers in these house races that nobody else is showing.

By the way, I'm not saying the poll is wrong, I'm just saying either SUSA is right or the other pollsters are right as they are putting up very different numbers in quite a few races.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I find this very tough to believe.  If the poll is right, then the GOP candidate is running on par with Goode's numbers from his time as an incumbent, and I just don't see how that's possible.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

Also, in August 2008 SurveyUSA had Goode beating Perriello 64% to 30% in this district.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=1997ee6b-a22d-4cee-b505-c879d51f9bc4

I'm not saying that Perriello isn't losing, as he is one of the more vulnerable incumbents, but SUSA has had some strange polls in this district.

[Holmes]

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=2ae2514a-dc2d-485d-9c35-f21df4bcca1c

[East Coast Republican]

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=2ae2514a-dc2d-485d-9c35-f21df4bcca1c

That poll you cited above is within the +/- 4% margin of error.  The Obama Democratic turnout swamped Goode and accounted for his tiny tiny defeat.  If you want to use a margin of error poll as evidence that this poll is incorrect in pointing to a massive Perriello defeat, that is your call.

Let's say though, for entertainment purposes, that we use your method for predicting this race.  In this circumstance, Perriello still wins by more than 20%

[Sam Spade]

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=2ae2514a-dc2d-485d-9c35-f21df4bcca1c

Also, just FYI

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=c99d02f1-c85b-48f7-b4ea-b11209a4dc71

[Holmes]

Let's say though, for entertainment purposes, that we use your method for predicting this race.  In this circumstance, Perriello still wins by more than 20%

Are you talking to me? I just posted a poll showing last year's election close before election day after people were claiming SUSA doesn't poll the district well...

[Sam Spade]

Let's say though, for entertainment purposes, that we use your method for predicting this race.  In this circumstance, Perriello still wins by more than 20%

Are you talking to me? I just posted a poll showing last year's election close before election day after people were claiming SUSA doesn't poll the district well...

And I posted the poll from 2006 two days before election day.  Which poll looks more like this one, internally?

[Holmes]

Sam, the poll you posted is the same as the one in the first post, not the one from 2006.

[East Coast Republican]

Let's say though, for entertainment purposes, that we use your method for predicting this race.  In this circumstance, Perriello still wins by more than 20%

Are you talking to me? I just posted a poll showing last year's election close before election day after people were claiming SUSA doesn't poll the district well...

If that was your intent then you have my sincere apologies for misreading your post.  I also apologize if I came off as rude since that is soooooooo not my style.  Come on man you know that! 

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Perriello is most likely going to lose. However, he is probably not going to lose by a 26-point margin.

[Niemeyerite]

I prefer a GOP majority in the house WITH perriello than a DEM majority in the house WITHOUT perriello.

[Dgov]

What's interesting is that if you compare their last poll in 2008 to this one, Perriello has actually only lost a few points in the over 50 Demographic, but has been totally routed in the under-50 demographic.  Assuming that the 2008 poll was uniform 3 points shy of his actual totals, than he has gone from winning them by 10 points to losing them by 36 in just two years.

Also, it looks like Perriello is actually doing better among those who regularly attend church than those who don't, which is surprising but probably reflective of his heavy reliance on an African-American base.  He's also barely winning Pro-choice voters, 54-42.

[Sam Spade]

Sam, the poll you posted is the same as the one in the first post, not the one from 2006.

Sorry, I posted the wrong link. 

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=c09fc7bc-07a6-4211-a745-68d5e621fd19

[Dgov]

Sam, the poll you posted is the same as the one in the first post, not the one from 2006.

Sorry, I posted the wrong link. 

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=c09fc7bc-07a6-4211-a745-68d5e621fd19

Wow.  He was getting 70% of Generation Y?

[Torie]

This dude is on the wrong side of the Pelosi triage line.