KY: Survey USA: Paul jumps to 15-point lead, Conway camp disputes poll

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Kentucky Senator by Survey USA on 2010-09-02

Summary: D: 40%, R: 55%, I: 0%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

The poll, conducted by Survey USA, also indicates that Kentucky voters are increasingly identifying themselves as Republican or Independent while identifying less with the Democratic Party.  The disproportionate representation compared to actual voter registration and previous voter turnout prompted the Conway campaign to dispute the poll.

 "The methodology of this poll is sort of out of line and we certainly question some of the ways that the poll was conducted," said Conway Press Secretary Allison Haley.

"I do think the momentum of the state is with us," said Paul, "What the exact number is.... we're happy to be 15 ahead.  That's for sure."

While neither Paul or his campaign staff expressed confidence in the poll's 15 point margin, the candidate welcomed the poll as a sign that his fiscal conservative, Tea Party message is resonating.

 "We're excited about it.  Everywhere I go across Kentucky we think people are concerned about the debt," Paul said, "They want somebody who will go up there and shake things up, somebody who will introduce a balanced budget amendment, somebody who's for term limits, somebody who understands that the system's broken.  We can't just keep on spending and borrowing, spending and borrowing."

Conversely, the Conway campaign says it believes that it's effort to inform voters of Paul's views on U.S. and local drug policy have narrowed the contest, rather than the widening Paul lead indicated in the poll.

"Recently, Rand Paul has made a lot of statements in opposition to combating drugs in our Kentucky communities," Haley said, "and that has not caused him to surge in the polls.  We feel like this is, the poll is just simply inaccurate."

http://www.whas11.com/community/blogs/political-blog/Paul-up-by-15-in-new-poll-that-Conway-campaign-disputes--102238199.html

[Tender Branson]

If KY votes this November like it normally does in Presidential elections, this poll isn't off by a lot.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

32% of Democrats supporting Paul? I know this is Kentucky but isn't that strange?

[tpfkaw]

Former yellow-dogs, probably.

[tpfkaw]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

We can rest assured that Paul is ahead.

[SPC]

In related news, Mohammed Saeed al-Sahaf has been hired as a representative for the Conway campaign.

[Eraserhead]

Almost impossible to see Paul winning by this kind of margin for fairly obvious reasons.

[redcommander]

Almost impossible to see Paul winning by this kind of margin for fairly obvious reasons.

I could see him win by over 10 if he keeps playing safe and not making any more gaffes till election day. You're right about 15 being a pretty big stretch though.

[#CriminalizeSobriety]

Might be part of an overall trend of Democrats slipping nationally. If Paul wins by this margin, I'll be pretty content, and a bit embarassed that I predicted him to win by a much smaller margin.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

Conversely, the Conway campaign says it believes that it's effort to inform voters of Paul's views on U.S. and local drug policy have narrowed the contest, rather than the widening Paul lead indicated in the poll.

Hmm, all those red avatars supporting Conway because they claim Paul is a regular authoritarian Republican, yet their boy's signature issue is apparently attacking Paul for not being enough of a fanatical drug warrior.

[Dgov]

Wow that is a huge gender gap.  Paul wins Men 65-31 but loses women 45-48.  37 points

Also, I'm hesitant to believe Paul is winning 37% of the Black vote.

Though they continue to Show Republicans creaming the Democrats in the youth vote in southern states, while having a more even election among the old.  Paul wins under 34-voters by 27 but loses over 65 voters by 3.  This has been a trend in almost all of their single-district polling.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I think we need a big flashing sign on the forum that says "DON'T PAY ATTENTION TO CROSSTABS!".

[Rowan]

I think we need a big flashing sign on the forum that says "DON'T PAY ATTENTION TO CROSSTABS!".

Bingo.

[Niemeyerite]

what has happened with surveyUSA?? I respect the fiirm, they are always accurate, but I think 2010 won't be their year... I think PP will have the gold medal on accuracy.

[Vepres]

what has happened with surveyUSA?? I respect the fiirm, they are always accurate, but I think 2010 won't be their year... I think PP will have the gold medal on accuracy.

Or we could be heading into a literally historic wave election, in which case SUSA is still doing pretty well.

[Oakvale]

I'm not someone who handwaves every poll they don't like, but does anyone, Vepres' masturbatory glee aside, think Paul is going to win by fifteen points?

Obviously, I don't deny he's leading, and may well win by a decent margin, but this is silly.

[Vepres]

I'm not someone who handwaves every poll they don't like, but does anyone, Vepres' masturbatory glee aside, think Paul is going to win by fifteen points?

Obviously, I don't deny he's leading, and may well win by a decent margin, but this is silly.

I wasn't saying he would, but this poll hand waving is becoming an epidemic and I do think you can't look at individual races in a normal context this year.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Conway coming out in support of the Bush tax cuts was a really brilliant move.

[Beet]

Well, a man who opposes the Civil Rights Act will win a state that went for Bill Clinton by 15 points. If Trey Grayson were the nominee, we would have had a sane Republican in this race. Now a window has been opened into old race wounds that we thought were healed. I would especially like to thanks Democrats who heaped scorn on Grayson for being a 'McConnell tool' (which Paul is showing himself to be, in addition to his extreme views) and for arguing that with Paul, Conway had a chance. Sorry, WRONG AGAIN. How many times do you have to be wrong before someone listens to me?

[DrScholl]

Paul is not the type of candidate to win by 15 points. He might win, but his negatives are enough to weigh down his percentage to single digits. The man doesn't think drugs are a problem in Eastern Kentucky, that alone is enough to cut into his numbers.

[Holmes]

I find it hard to believe that Paul is winning the middle aged Canadian Eskimo vote by 52%.

[Free Palestine]

Well, a man who opposes the Civil Rights Act will win a state that went for Bill Clinton by 15 points. If Trey Grayson were the nominee, we would have had a Republican I like better in this race. Now a window has been opened into old race wounds that we thought were healed. I would especially like to thanks Democrats who heaped scorn on Grayson for being a 'McConnell tool' (which Paul is showing himself to be, in addition to his extreme views) and for arguing that with Paul, Conway had a chance. Sorry, WRONG AGAIN. How many times do you have to be wrong before someone listens to me?

Fixed.  Rand Paul having "extreme" views does not make him insane.  It just miffs me when people think an individual is insane for not being within a certain ideological range.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

Conway coming out in support of the Bush tax cuts was a really brilliant move.

So Conway supported Bush's wars, supports escalating the war on drugs, and now supports the Bush tax cuts. Can someone explain to me why he is so beloved among red avatars on here?

Well, a man who opposes the Civil Rights Act will win a state that went for Bill Clinton by 15 points. If Trey Grayson were the nominee, we would have had a Republican I like better in this race. Now a window has been opened into old race wounds that we thought were healed. I would especially like to thanks Democrats who heaped scorn on Grayson for being a 'McConnell tool' (which Paul is showing himself to be, in addition to his extreme views) and for arguing that with Paul, Conway had a chance. Sorry, WRONG AGAIN. How many times do you have to be wrong before someone listens to me?

Fixed.  Rand Paul having "extreme" views does not make him insane.  It just miffs me when people think an individual is insane for not being within a certain ideological range.

I wish Rand had "extreme" views. In reality he's just a moderate Republican.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

I wish Rand had "extreme" views. In reality he's just a moderate Republican.

Strange definition of a "moderation".

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I dunno, I could see Paul winning by 15. The crazy faucets have been turned off long ago.