Latest Generic Polls: Ras +12%R; WSJ 6%R; Gallup 15%R; CNN 10R; Fox13R; Bloom 3R

[Torie]

The poll is here, GOP 48%, Dems 36%.  This spread replicates one from 3 weeks ago by Ras, however.

It might be good to have one thread for all of these generic polls Sam. What do you think?

[Хahar 🤔]

We don't need a thread each time this happens.

[Sam Spade]

Just creating more work for the poor moderator...

[Torie]

Well, it is either that, or clutter on your little Board, or no more generic polls, I guess.

[Vepres]

You ever imagine what an elephant raping a donkey would look like? The elephant would probably crush the donkey under its weight, leaving only a mangled corpse and some guts on the elephants feet.

[Torie]

You ever imagine what an elephant raping a donkey would look like? The elephant would probably crush the donkey under its weight, leaving only a mangled corpse and some guts on the elephants feet.

Meeker must think that I have been a really bad influence on you. 

[cinyc]

Beware of any poll taken the week before Labor Day.  Many people are on vacation.

That said, I'm sure the Republicans have a solid lead in the generic poll - but probably not 12%.

[Torie]

Beware of any poll taken the week before Labor Day.  Many people are on vacation.

That said, I'm sure the Republicans have a solid lead in the generic poll - but probably not 12%.

Don't folks out of town on vacation tend to have a GOP bias, or has the correlation between partisan affiliation and wealth become so attenuated now, that any such bias is merely an historical artifact at this point?

[Vepres]

You ever imagine what an elephant raping a donkey would look like? The elephant would probably crush the donkey under its weight, leaving only a mangled corpse and some guts on the elephants feet.

Meeker must think that I have been a really bad influence on you. 

Great thinkers are never understood by their contemporaries

[Tender Branson]

CNN says GOP+7

GOP: 52%
DEM: 45%

That 7-point advantage is up from a 3-point margin last month.

Republicans also have a large and growing advantage among independents. 62 percent of independents questioned say they would vote for the generic Republican in their district, with three in 10 saying they'd cast a ballot for the generic Democrat. That 32-point margin for the Republicans among independents is up from an 8-point advantage last month.

What will the "Obama factor" be in November? The poll indicates that most say that their vote for Congress will not be intended as a message for the president.

24 percent say their vote will be in opposition to Obama; with one in five saying their vote will be a message of support for the president. In 2006, anti-Bush voters outnumbered pro-Bush voters by more than two-to-one.

http://edition.cnn.com/2010/POLITICS/09/06/midterm.poll

[Torie]

As a bonus, here is a Ras poll on partisan affiliation, that has the gap between the parties down to 1.2%, the lowest since back in 2004,  with likely voters even more GOP, pushing the gap down to something unspecified, or closed, or whatever.

And here is a squib that the lead in Illinois by the Dems in partisan affiliation has been cut from 20% to 10%.

cc: Sbane

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Generic ballot polls should go in the same thread (starting now would be fine, though) so that it's easier to track/clogging issues.

[Holmes]

Beware of any poll taken the week before Labor Day.  Many people are on vacation.

That said, I'm sure the Republicans have a solid lead in the generic poll - but probably not 12%.

Don't folks out of town on vacation tend to have a GOP bias, or has the correlation between partisan affiliation and wealth become so attenuated now, that any such bias is merely an historical artifact at this point?

Yeah, deciding to go on vacation is a partisan decision.

[J. J.]

Beware of any poll taken the week before Labor Day.  Many people are on vacation.

That said, I'm sure the Republicans have a solid lead in the generic poll - but probably not 12%.

Agreed.

Couldn't we do a generic Congressional poll thread?

[Torie]

Politico has a bunch of generic polls listed all showing the a GOP blowout. The headline of the article:  "New polls point to tsunami."  NBC/Wall St. Journal - GOP +9%; ABC/Washington Post GOP +13%.

And here is the reason:

"“Voters were also asked whether they think it is more important to have Democrats in charge of Congress to help support the president's policies or to have Republicans in control to serve as a check on Obama's agenda,” the Post’s Dan Balz and Jon Cohen write. “Here, 55 percent say they prefer Republicans, while 39 percent choose Democrats. The GOP's 16-point edge is double what it was in July.”

Charlie Cook meanwhile, just upped this morning his estimate from 35 seats to 40 seats of the  minimum projected GOP house seat gain.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Politico has a bunch of generic polls listed all showing the a GOP blowout. The headline of the article:  "New polls point to tsunami."  NBC/Wall St. Journal - GOP +9%; CBS/Washington Post GOP +13%.

And here is the reason:

"“Voters were also asked whether they think it is more important to have Democrats in charge of Congress to help support the president's policies or to have Republicans in control to serve as a check on Obama's agenda,” the Post’s Dan Balz and Jon Cohen write. “Here, 55 percent say they prefer Republicans, while 39 percent choose Democrats. The GOP's 16-point edge is double what it was in July.”

Uh, Torie,

Its ABC/Washington Post, not CBS/Washington Post.

Also, note the changeover in methodology in polls from RV to LV.

[Torie]

Thanks for noticing the errata and noting the change in methodology. Are you sure that in the past both polls just used registered voters?

[The Vorlon]

Labour day is sort of the "tweener" time between when it is best to use RV or LV polls.

2 months is a long time and it's still a bit early to be using LV polls, on the other hand, the die is more or less cast for November, and the relative energies of the two parties will not change all that much.... so simple RV polls don't work perfectly either.

Come October, LV polls will clearly be the way to go so we just put up with things for a month where we are in the "tweener" time.

Looking at the last few polls when you group by methodology, polls within each group agree pretty darn closely actually...

LV Polls:

Rasmussen Reports   (LV)   Republicans +12
ABC News/Wash Post (LV)   Republicans +13
WSJ-NBC - (LV) - Republicans +9

RV polls that don't push the leaners too hard

Gallup   8/23 - 8/29   1540 RV   51   41   Republicans +10
FOX News   9/1 - 9/2   900 RV   46   37   Republicans +9

RV Polls

CNN/Opinion Research   9/1 - 9/2   936 RV   52   45   Republicans +7
USA Today/Gallup   8/27 - 8/30   928 RV   49   43   Republicans +6

The WSJ Poll just released, as always, is an excellent poll worth a read...

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/LateAugustWSJNBCpoll.pdf

[Torie]

However, the ABC/Wapo poll showing the GOP ahead with LV's by 13%, only has the GOP ahead by 2% among RV's.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Thanks for noticing the errata and noting the change in methodology. Are you sure that in the past both polls just used registered voters?

You're welcome

ABC/Post   7/7-11/10     1151   RV    47    46    -    7 -        +1R
ABC/Post   6/3-6/10          ?       RV   44    47    2    6    1    +3D
ABC/Post   4/22-25/10    870    RV    43    48    1    8    1    +5D

[Mr.Phips]

Thanks Obama, you jackass.  Im sure you will love having Republicans strap strings onto and move you around like a mariannette after this election.  Democrats should have tanked Obama when they had a chance in 2008. 

[Brittain33]

Thanks Obama, you jackass.  Im sure you will love having Republicans strap strings onto and move you around like a mariannette after this election.  Democrats should have tanked Obama when they had a chance in 2008. 

President Clinton wouldn't be doing any better, not unless she had the magical cure for avoiding a massive deleveraging that Obama doesn't.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Thanks Obama, you jackass.  Im sure you will love having Republicans strap strings onto and move you around like a mariannette after this election.  Democrats should have tanked Obama when they had a chance in 2008. 

President Clinton wouldn't be doing any better, not unless she had the magical cure for avoiding a massive deleveraging that Obama doesn't.

Unlike with Beet, this isn't about Clinton; the poster just developed this very pessimistic theory about having a Democrat in the White House after the economy crashed.

If Democrats don't nominate Obama, they need to have their heads examined. 

If Obama is the nominee, I will vote Democratic. 
If Hillary is the nominee, I will vote Republican.

In my House race, I will be supporting my Democratic Rep. 

[J. J.]

Thanks Obama, you jackass.  Im sure you will love having Republicans strap strings onto and move you around like a mariannette after this election.  Democrats should have tanked Obama when they had a chance in 2008. 

I was waiting for that one.

One of the reasons that McCain should have been elected is that he would have been a one term president.

A fresh Obama in 2012 could have taken the country in another direction; the direction has now been set and it away from Obama and everything he stands for.

[Beet]

Obama's win in 2008 was the worst thing that ever happened to the Democrats.