Latest Generic Polls: Ras +12%R; WSJ 6%R; Gallup 15%R; CNN 10R; Fox13R; Bloom 3R
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  Latest Generic Polls: Ras +12%R; WSJ 6%R; Gallup 15%R; CNN 10R; Fox13R; Bloom 3R
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Author Topic: Latest Generic Polls: Ras +12%R; WSJ 6%R; Gallup 15%R; CNN 10R; Fox13R; Bloom 3R  (Read 25019 times)
Sbane
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« Reply #175 on: October 23, 2010, 05:48:52 AM »

Is it possible that the Republicans will do much better on the congressional 2 way vote total as opposed to for the Senate? I ask this because I don't see how Republicans are +10 and losing Washington, Connecticut, California and are close in Colorado, Kentucky or Pennsylvania.

Also I found an interesting nugget in the pew poll. 12% of Democrats (the fifth highest response) would be "okay" with a GOP takeover of the house and 5% would be satisfied.
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Torie
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« Reply #176 on: October 23, 2010, 10:09:10 AM »

Is it possible that the Republicans will do much better on the congressional 2 way vote total as opposed to for the Senate? I ask this because I don't see how Republicans are +10 and losing Washington, Connecticut, California and are close in Colorado, Kentucky or Pennsylvania.

Also I found an interesting nugget in the pew poll. 12% of Democrats (the fifth highest response) would be "okay" with a GOP takeover of the house and 5% would be satisfied.

Senate races are potentially more personality specific for obvious reasons, although that affect is obviously muted this time. You have a point that if the the Dem Senate candidates are winning big in NY, with no Texas race, and for Florida and NC, not that big a margin for the GOP, and California and Illinois a wash, it is hard to see how big GOP margins in small states generate an overall 10%. GOP lead. Ohio can't do it alone. Smiley
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #177 on: October 25, 2010, 12:58:54 PM »

Rasmussen will say 49-40 GOP
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #178 on: October 25, 2010, 01:44:43 PM »

Battleground/POLITICO says 48-42 GOP (the article says 47-42, but the guts say 48-42 - its your choose).

Among those "extremely likely" voters, GOP is ahead by 12 according to the article (can't find it in the guts.

http://www.politico.com/static/PPM170_101022_bg42questionnaire.html

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1010/44092.html
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Torie
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« Reply #179 on: October 25, 2010, 02:06:59 PM »

Battleground/POLITICO says 48-42 GOP (the article says 47-42, but the guts say 48-42 - its your choose).

Among those "extremely likely" voters, GOP is ahead by 12 according to the article (can't find it in the guts.

http://www.politico.com/static/PPM170_101022_bg42questionnaire.html

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1010/44092.html

It took a lot of work to deduce that 47-42 spread!  Smiley
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Oakvale
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« Reply #180 on: October 25, 2010, 02:36:31 PM »

The broad consensus seems to be a 5 or 6 point spread in favour of the GOP, from what I can see. That's discounting the more outlandish polling.
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Torie
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« Reply #181 on: October 25, 2010, 03:54:05 PM »

Here is a chart of the gains RCP projects the GOP will make in the House. The trajectory is not pretty for the Dems.



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Dgov
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« Reply #182 on: October 25, 2010, 04:03:30 PM »

Here is a chart of the gains RCP projects the GOP will make in the House. The trajectory is not pretty for the Dems.



Part of that is probably the overall switch to Likely Voter models, which probably pushed their average up considerably.

But still, the 2nd cardinal sin of politics is to believe that just because a trend exists, it will continue.  Just because the Republicans have made major gains in the last few weeks doesn't mean they'll make even more gains later on.
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Torie
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« Reply #183 on: October 25, 2010, 04:27:19 PM »

Yes, of course, there may be momentum, or maybe not. The line might have a memory, or be a random walk.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #184 on: October 25, 2010, 05:20:55 PM »

Gallup - 48/44
52/43
55/41

See their website
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Oakvale
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« Reply #185 on: October 25, 2010, 05:23:10 PM »

I see Gallup is looking a little less crazy.
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #186 on: October 25, 2010, 08:03:13 PM »
« Edited: October 25, 2010, 08:07:16 PM by The Vorlon »

The broad consensus seems to be a 5 or 6 point spread in favour of the GOP, from what I can see. That's discounting the more outlandish polling.

This is what is sitting in the current RCP average.

Rasmussen Reports: - Republicans +9
Gallup (LV Lower Turnout): - Republicans +14
Gallup (LV Higher Turnout)*: - Republicans +9

Newsweek   10/20 - 10/21   773 LV   45   48   Democrats +3
Politico/GWU/Battleground: - Republicans +5
Pew Research: - Republicans +10
Associated Press/GfK: - Republicans +7
FOX News: - Republicans +9


To quote that old Sesame Street song.. "One of these things, is not like the others...."

So let's just toss Mr. Newsweek into the bottom of the birdcage where it belongs....

Gallup's much maligned "low turnout" model is probably the outside worst case for the Dems, basically assumes no re-energizing of the Dem bass, which seems unlikely, although I would point out Rassmussen finds an 18% GOP lead among those most closely following the election which "kinda" validates the Gallup number as a worst case scenario.

Rasmussen Reports: - Republicans +9
Gallup (LV Lower Turnout): - Republicans +14
Gallup (LV Higher Turnout)*: - Republicans +9
Politico/GWU/Battleground: - Republicans +5
Pew Research: - Republicans +10
Associated Press/GfK: - Republicans +7
FOX News: - Republicans +9


Using the time honored tradition of tossing out the high and the low, and averaging the rest, this leaves us with:

PEW => GOP +10
Rasmussen, Gallup, Fox at GOP +9
Associated Press at +7

So GOP up upper single digits seems about right, assuming no "structural" flaw in all this polling, like assuming an improbably large turnouts in certain demographics based upon 2008 voting patterns......

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Torie
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« Reply #187 on: October 25, 2010, 08:06:33 PM »

Gallup's low turnout model assumes a 43% turnout. So, that poll is either wrong because the turnout will be higher than 43%, or wrong even though the turnout assumption is correct, or it is right. Which is it, Vorlon?  I myself strongly doubt the turnout will be above 43%, and I suspect it will be lower.
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #188 on: October 25, 2010, 09:41:45 PM »

Gallup's low turnout model assumes a 43% turnout. So, that poll is either wrong because the turnout will be higher than 43%, or wrong even though the turnout assumption is correct, or it is right. Which is it, Vorlon?  I myself strongly doubt the turnout will be above 43%, and I suspect it will be lower.

I am on record as saying I think the GOP, broadly speaking, is being under polled by about 3% or so.

I's not so much the 43% or so I quibble with, it's the composition of that 43%.  Baking into the cake turnout demographics from 2008 seems incorrect to me in 2010.

I could be very wrong, we will know in 8 days. 

It will vary from race to race naturally, but I just don't think modeling in the 2008 turnout among young people, minorities, etc makes sense in any midterm, and certainly not 2010.
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Torie
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« Reply #189 on: October 25, 2010, 10:14:49 PM »

Gallup's low turnout model assumes a 43% turnout. So, that poll is either wrong because the turnout will be higher than 43%, or wrong even though the turnout assumption is correct, or it is right. Which is it, Vorlon?  I myself strongly doubt the turnout will be above 43%, and I suspect it will be lower.

I am on record as saying I think the GOP, broadly speaking, is being under polled by about 3% or so.

I's not so much the 43% or so I quibble with, it's the composition of that 43%.  Baking into the cake turnout demographics from 2008 seems incorrect to me in 2010.

I could be very wrong, we will know in 8 days.  

It will vary from race to race naturally, but I just don't think modeling in the 2008 turnout among young people, minorities, etc makes sense in any midterm, and certainly not 2010.

Clearly Gallup was not baking into the cake turnout composition models given a given turnout percentage from 2008! I suspect it is  more like 2004, even though that was a presidential year.

To be honest, I suspect if the election were held today, it would be a huge GOP blowout, with all of us shocked as Angle's margin, and Toomey's and Raese's, and the Connecticut race skin tight (the West coast does it differently). The issue is how many Dems drift home and get out to vote between now and election day. I suspect the Dems will make some progress. If they don't, Vepres has it right. Smiley
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #190 on: October 26, 2010, 07:10:04 PM »


Clearly Gallup was not baking into the cake turnout composition models given a given turnout percentage from 2008! I suspect it is  more like 2004, even though that was a presidential year.


let me rephrase, upon re-reading I don't think what I was trying to say got said correctly.

Most "likely" voter screens rely, at least in part, upon past voting behavior.

In 2008 Obama was able to bring substantial numbers of "occasional" voters to the polls, by contrast, many typically pretty reliable GOP voters stayed home.

The next effect of this is that I believe 2010 "likely" screens are being tainted by an unusual 2008.  The net effect is to bump some normally "likely" GOP voters out of the pool, and promote some atypical Dem voters into the pool.

For these reasons, I think a lot of "likely" screens are a tad off this year.
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Dan the Roman
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« Reply #191 on: October 26, 2010, 07:41:16 PM »

I am going to be the odd one out here and predict based on the MA special election that turnout will be quite bit higher than 2006 and 2002 levels. Evidence from Ohio, Iowa, and Nevada has both Democrats and Republicans easily beating 2006 numbers. Quite frankly I suspect its mostly going to be independents and young voters who crater this year.

The thing is, most predictions of low turnout, other than in Virginia last year, failed to pan out. Both the MA special election and the Maine Gay Marriage vote turned in about normal midterm turnout, and with early voting there is no excuse for less.
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Torie
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« Reply #192 on: October 29, 2010, 02:19:35 PM »

I added 3 new generic ballot polls in the heading which I picked up off the RCP website, from Bloomberg, McClatchy/Marist, and CBS New York Times.
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Sbane
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« Reply #193 on: October 29, 2010, 03:51:49 PM »

Gallup's low turnout model assumes a 43% turnout. So, that poll is either wrong because the turnout will be higher than 43%, or wrong even though the turnout assumption is correct, or it is right. Which is it, Vorlon?  I myself strongly doubt the turnout will be above 43%, and I suspect it will be lower.

I am on record as saying I think the GOP, broadly speaking, is being under polled by about 3% or so.

So do you think we are likely to see the Republicans win the house with a 12 point margin? Then we would likely see the Republicans gain close to 70 seats and your prediction would be way off. Smiley
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mypalfish
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« Reply #194 on: October 29, 2010, 07:49:15 PM »

Fox News released their last generic ballot result...

Republican 50%
Democrat 37%
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #195 on: October 29, 2010, 11:02:43 PM »
« Edited: October 30, 2010, 11:17:04 AM by The Vorlon »

Gallup's low turnout model assumes a 43% turnout. So, that poll is either wrong because the turnout will be higher than 43%, or wrong even though the turnout assumption is correct, or it is right. Which is it, Vorlon?  I myself strongly doubt the turnout will be above 43%, and I suspect it will be lower.

I am on record as saying I think the GOP, broadly speaking, is being under polled by about 3% or so.

So do you think we are likely to see the Republicans win the house with a 12 point margin? Then we would likely see the Republicans gain close to 70 seats and your prediction would be way off. Smiley

I haven't updated my numbers for quite a while. -

Things are very fluid  in the House, so I will post something late Monday as a "final" prediction. -

I am thinking 52ish in the house right now, There are about 20 races I want to have an actual look at before I come to a final number.

As I posted maybe 2 or 3 months ago "the House is gone" so I really have not been following things on a race by race level in the House.

I am also taking a very careful and hard look at the Washington State Senate race, it's very close, and I am going over the polls to try and figure out which way that one will go. - I am probably at 50+2/48 in the senate, but I want to double check Illinois, Colorado, and Washington - also, I hope we get a few more senate polls over the weekend.

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Sbane
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« Reply #196 on: October 29, 2010, 11:25:48 PM »

Washington is certainly a tough one to call. I have a feeling that will be going down to the wire. Colorado could be interesting as well, and that came out of nowhere.
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #197 on: October 30, 2010, 11:42:08 PM »
« Edited: October 31, 2010, 07:20:18 AM by The Vorlon »

Gallup's low turnout model assumes a 43% turnout. So, that poll is either wrong because the turnout will be higher than 43%, or wrong even though the turnout assumption is correct, or it is right. Which is it, Vorlon?  I myself strongly doubt the turnout will be above 43%, and I suspect it will be lower.

I am on record as saying I think the GOP, broadly speaking, is being under polled by about 3% or so.

So do you think we are likely to see the Republicans win the house with a 12 point margin? Then we would likely see the Republicans gain close to 70 seats and your prediction would be way off. Smiley

I went through the House seat by seat, and I get to GOP +69 in the House actually, not sure I really believe it, I will look again after all the weakend polls drop.

The Senate is pretty stable, the House is collapsing for the Dems.

Fox is showing GOP +13 on the Generic now.
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Torie
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« Reply #198 on: October 31, 2010, 12:26:38 AM »

I am going to put this post I put up elsewhere here as well:

I am putting up the chart below to confuse everyone. Suffice it to say, if the GOP wins the House by 15% (57.5-42.5), which is reflected by the blue line, and every CD held by a Dem swings in a uniform manner from its PVI baseline (bearing in mind that a CD needs a PVI to GOP +2.5 to break even  (Bush +2.5%, Obama -7.5%, sum the two, and divide by two, for the PVI break even point), then the GOP wins 114 Dem seats (the red line). In other words, per this metric, if the Dems lose every seat they hold with a Dem PVI of +5 or less, they lose 114 seats. If the GOP just breaks even in the generic vote, the Dems lose about 50 seats if the Dem can't beat the the PVI baseline for the CD after deducting 2.5%, to get the CD down to even. So based on the PVI thing, as adjusted, if the GOP margin goes from -5% to 0%, and all CD's follow the PVI model, the GOP gets 50 seats. If there is no swing at all from the PVI, and the GOP loses the Generic vote by 5%, it still picks up about 42 Dem seats.

So, as a very crude cut, the Dems are holding a lot of seats they should not be holding based on 2004 and 2008 POTUS results, and thus a nationalized election, with the GOP in the lead, where incumbency is of marginal value, is one reason for the impending blowout. And sure some Dems will survive the PVI game, vis a vis the generic ballot swing, a substantial number of them. How many?  A lot fewer than we thought a month ago.

And yes, between 50 and 70 Dem seats, a lot are in play as compared to the PVI differential (i.e, the red line gets relatively steep between 50 and 70, and particularly 50 and 60), so as the GOP moves into positive territory, it hits a lot of Dem seats, against which the Dems have to play their incumbency card, etc.

And oh yes, you subtract GOP losses, be it 2 or 5 or whatever, from these totals.

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mypalfish
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« Reply #199 on: October 31, 2010, 08:32:40 AM »

New CNN/Opinion Research generic ballot...

Republican 52%
Democrat 42%
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