Latest Generic Polls: Ras +12%R; WSJ 6%R; Gallup 15%R; CNN 10R; Fox13R; Bloom 3R

[Sam Spade]

Just creating more work for the poor moderator...

[Sam Spade]

Folks, there is a time when you trust generic polls somewhat.  It's known as the week before the election.

Nevertheless, what I'm seeing right now suggests a 40-50 seat gain for the GOP right now, and the possible floor of 35-40 that Cook is talking about and 45 that Vorlon said earlier.  Need to adjust.

[Sam Spade]

Ok, so which 35 seats to you are "gone" for the Dems?

[Sam Spade]

As I said, 105 is a really "extreme" scenario - maximum GOP turnout, very depressed Dem turnout, a "big" event worth a couple extra points, so "shock and awe" event.

In terms of counting 35 or so...

these I am pretty sure of, and then there are another 40 or so that are very much in play... in a wave year the wave party will get most of the marginals...

I am sure there are a bunch in the mid-west nobody is watching that will go GOP as well.

Agree with last sentence (well, I'm watching them and DCCC is advertising, but that's not "watching") - unsure of other sentence.

As to your list...

1 - TN6 Yes.
2 - LA3 Yes, though Louisiana is strange.
3 - AR2 Yes.
4 - NY29 Yes.
5 - MD1 Not 100%, but in seats that are Republican (as opposed to voting Republican), the undecideds tend to move to the Republican side during good years at the end.
6 - OH15 Yes.  Dems haven't even tried to advertise here.
7 - NM2 Not 100%, and less so than MD1.  This area is strange.
8 - OH1 Close to Yes.  Black turnout is what did Chabot in anyway - and Ohio looks bad to me for Dems.
9 - KS3 Dems have thrown money here, but I think it's a waste of time.  So yes.
10 - IN8 Probably - given what else we've seen in the Midwest.
11 - CO4 Yes.
12 - NH1 Shea-Porter is stronger than we give her credit for and Guinta is weak.  Definitely can't agree here.
13 - NH2 I think so.  Not 100%, but close.
14 - ND99 You mean ND-AL.  Probably, but less so than NH-2.
15 - TN8 Yes because Fincher is the correct candidate for the CD. Watch.
16 - FL24 Yes.
17 - MS1 Not 100%, but close.  Childers will have to run strongly with McCain-voting rural whites in MS - possible, but not likely.
18 - NV3 I don't think this one's over at all.
19 - VA5 Yes.
20 - VA2
21 - FL8 I personally think Grayson's killing himself, but I've been wrong before.  So probably yes.
22 - MI1 Yes - even though there's the weird third-party guy and Dems are throwing some money here.  MI7 is where Dems think they have the better shot.
23 - NY24 No - not dead at all.
24 - PA11 Yes.
25 - WV1 I don't know - West Virginia is weird.  This is a CD I have trouble with.
26 - MI7 I'd put this seat in the same league as MD1 actually.
27 - WA3 Yes.
28 - PA7 Yes.
29 - IL14 I think IL11 is gone.  This one isn't.
30 - TX17 Yes.
31 - AR1 No, though Dems are not favored - not gone.
32 - AL2 Demographics say yes here, but who knows.  Much like Childers, he has to get great numbers from McCain-voting whites in black areas, but his opponent is much weaker.  So not gone.
33 - IN9 Haven't gotten anything from here for a while.  In theory, it should be gone though.
34 - ID1 Dems are favored here unless we get the not unlikely late collapse.  Get the memo.
35 - SC5 Probably yes.
36 - PA3 I had a feeling English was dead here in 2008 and I have the same sense about dahlkemper now.

So what does that come to?

[Sam Spade]

The ones on your list I disagree are dead:

5 - MD1
7 - NM2
12 - NH1
14 - ND-AL
17 - MS1
18 - NV3
23 - NY24
25 - WV1
29 - IL14
30 - TX17
31 - AR1
32 - AL2
33 - IN9
34 - ID1

Thoe only one of these that I agree is "gone" is TX-17.   The only consolation is that Edwards would almost certainly be eliminated in redistricting in 2012. 

When your opponent releases an internal saying you're down 19, and your best comment is, our polls say otherwise, you're down double digits, at least...

[Sam Spade]

An internal reading of these types of polls has suggested for a while that in the final instance, the generic ballot should be about +5-8% GOP, unless there are great turnout discrepancies (which is what, in part, is driving my House predictions for a while)

[Sam Spade]

Rasmussen out today showing the GOP +8 in the generic ballot (47-39), which is a 5 pt gain since last week.

Today's will say... 48-39.

[Sam Spade]

New Gallup:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/143777/GOP-Holds-Solid-Leads-Voter-Preferences-Week.aspx

RV
GOP 48-43 (was GOP 47-44)

LV (1)
GOP 53-42 (was GOP 53-41)

LV (2)
GOP 56-39 (was GOP 56-39)

[Sam Spade]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303550904575562493014465942.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_LEADNewsCollection

[Sam Spade]

Pew says GOP +10 (+4 in RV, but that's becoming less relevant by the day)

http://people-press.org/report/666/

[Sam Spade]

Pew says GOP +10 (+4 in RV, but that's becoming less relevant by the day)

http://people-press.org/report/666/

It seems rather difficult for me to see how the GOP could beat the Dems by 10%, but not win at least 60 seats. And that is the thing. Nobody knows what the real turnout model should be in all of these polls, particularly for the House.

I have enough trouble with turnout models for the Senate, much less the House.

[Sam Spade]

Rasmussen will say 49-40 GOP

[Sam Spade]

Battleground/POLITICO says 48-42 GOP (the article says 47-42, but the guts say 48-42 - its your choose).

Among those "extremely likely" voters, GOP is ahead by 12 according to the article (can't find it in the guts.

http://www.politico.com/static/PPM170_101022_bg42questionnaire.html

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1010/44092.html

[Sam Spade]

Gallup - 48/44
52/43
55/41

See their website

[Sam Spade]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/144125/Republicans-Appear-Poised-Win-Big-Tuesday.aspx

Based on 45% adult turnout.  

Higher turnout LV poll is GOP 52-DEM 42
RV poll is GOP 48-DEM 44

[Sam Spade]

Wow, just wow.  I had about GOP 10-12% in the back of my mind, when I did my projections, trying to fit local poll stuff within it, and if it did not, ask why, not the 15% spread that Gallup now uses, having made up its mind about the turnout (and 45% is still amazingly high), rather than bifurcate, and leave it at that. If the 15% margin really happens, GOP +60 seats is a floor. The math otherwise just doesn't work, particularly if minority turnout is down in some places.

In 1994, the GOP won with a 7% margin. In 2008, the Dems won by a 10.5%, so if the Dems now lose by 15%, that is a 24.5% swing, sinking all those Dems who won last time by less than 63% or so in 2008, as a starting point. Obviously that won't happen, but it is not as if in safe GOP seats, the GOP will run up massive margins of wasted votes. If that were the case, state races would be in the bag which are not.

It's a 25.5% swing and your observation makes more sense than you think it does.

Anyway, Gallup has been wrong in the past, so we'll see.  However, I may really give the 70-seat prediction a call now, if anything b/c it might be the most likely answer.

[Sam Spade]

WSJ says GOP 49, DEM 43

Among "high-interest voters", it's GOP 53, DEM 41.

Among RV it's GOP 46, DEM 44.

Full text of poll can be found after the link.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/39940472/ns/politics-decision_08/

[Sam Spade]

Rather large gap from Gallup, from WSJ (which can hardly be considered a Dem dysinformation basement operation ). Somebody is going to have some explaining to do.

Not so much among the "high interest" numbers, fwiw, which makes sense.

Btw, someone should be noting that, no matter what LV formula being used, Dems can't seem to break 43% or so (yes I know there are 44/45 on a couple of them, but remember to toss) on any of these generic ballot polls.  That may be more important than the margin on these polls.  We shall see.

[Sam Spade]

Gallup - GOP + 15
Fox - GOP + 13
Rasmussen - GOP + 12
CNN - GOP +10
PEW - GOP + 6
CBS NY Times - GOP + 6
McClatchy/Marist - GOP + 6
ABC - GOP + 4
Bloomburg - GOP + 3

The "Good Citizen" vote is breaking heavy to the GOP (except on the left Coast, looks like Murray "barely" survives)

In reference, Rasmussen's last poll has GOP51, DEM 39.

[Sam Spade]

Based on my House numbers, the final House popular vote will be somewhere around 52-45-3 GOP

[Sam Spade]

Mine is right now 52.1 to 44.7, but I've been updating the later vote returns more quickly.

As for the Senate, that would make sense.  Cycle III is the cycle that is most even between the parties based on present voting patterns (Cycle I leans Dem and Cycle II leans GOP)

[Sam Spade]

Mine is right now 52.1 to 44.7, but I've been updating the later vote returns more quickly.

As for the Senate, that would make sense.  Cycle III is the cycle that is most even between the parties based on present voting patterns (Cycle I leans Dem and Cycle II leans GOP)

Therefore the Generic Congressional Ballot (Average of Senate and House Ballot) was GOP+6

The best Generic Ballot pollsters were Reuters/Ipsos (R+6), Pew Research (R+6), CBS News/NY Times (R+6) and McClatchy/Marist (R+6).

The worst were Gallup (R+15), FOX News (R+13), Rasmussen (R+12) and Newsweek (D+3).

Just fyi, but Generic ballot polls mean only the generic House ballot for rather obvious reasons.

[Sam Spade]

Mine is right now 52.1 to 44.7, but I've been updating the later vote returns more quickly.

As for the Senate, that would make sense.  Cycle III is the cycle that is most even between the parties based on present voting patterns (Cycle I leans Dem and Cycle II leans GOP)

Therefore the Generic Congressional Ballot (Average of Senate and House Ballot) was GOP+6

The best Generic Ballot pollsters were Reuters/Ipsos (R+6), Pew Research (R+6), CBS News/NY Times (R+6) and McClatchy/Marist (R+6).

The worst were Gallup (R+15), FOX News (R+13), Rasmussen (R+12) and Newsweek (D+3).

Just fyi, but Generic ballot polls mean only the generic House ballot for rather obvious reasons.

Technically yes, but some pollsters doesn't seem to get it - like Rasmussen.

They ask: "Are you going to vote for the DEM or GOP candidate in this years congressional elections ?" instead of "In your district, are you going to vote for the DEM or GOP candidate in this years congressional elections ?"

Regardless of the way the question is asked, it has to be that way b/c with the Senate, not all states are up this year (I believe it was 35 of 50 this year) and one state was up twice (NY).  Skews the numbers too much.

I believe in the House this year, 24 GOP CDs were not contested by Dems and 5 Dem CDs were not contested by GOPers (exclusing all third parties, of course).  This does skew the numbers, but nowhere near as much as with the Senate (we're probably talking about tenths of percentage points, considering the safeness of most of these seats, maybe not even).