Latest Generic Polls: Ras +12%R; WSJ 6%R; Gallup 15%R; CNN 10R; Fox13R; Bloom 3R

[J. J.]

Beware of any poll taken the week before Labor Day.  Many people are on vacation.

That said, I'm sure the Republicans have a solid lead in the generic poll - but probably not 12%.

Agreed.

Couldn't we do a generic Congressional poll thread?

[J. J.]

Thanks Obama, you jackass.  Im sure you will love having Republicans strap strings onto and move you around like a mariannette after this election.  Democrats should have tanked Obama when they had a chance in 2008. 

I was waiting for that one.

One of the reasons that McCain should have been elected is that he would have been a one term president.

A fresh Obama in 2012 could have taken the country in another direction; the direction has now been set and it away from Obama and everything he stands for.

[J. J.]

Gallup has it back to a 46-46 tie


http://www.gallup.com/poll/142892/Parties-Tied-Generic-Ballot.aspx

Not according to their site:  http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

[J. J.]

1.  Mr. Phipps, et al., for God's sake control yourselves.   Everybody sane expected a bad year, but the Democratic double decimation talk is a bit much, at least for now.  Okay, you can panic, but get in off the ledge.  Obama could survive in two years; it is still too early to tell.

I'll concede that the House is probably going Republican, but maybe not by much.  

2.  The 'bots have it it back up to twelve, but it is still early.

[J. J.]

I guess the latest Gallup isn't very interesting since it's a tie instead of R+10.

Registered voters, not likely voters.  The "enthusiasm poll" give is R +25.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/142892/Parties-Tied-Generic-Ballot.aspx

[J. J.]

I guess the latest Gallup isn't very interesting since it's a tie instead of R+10.

Registered voters, not likely voters.  The "enthusiasm poll" give is R +25.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/142892/Parties-Tied-Generic-Ballot.aspx

Well, it would obviously be pretty epic if only people who are currently "enthused" showed up to vote, but that's not going to happen.

It is probably a better indication of who will turn out.  That's why the RV number becomes less important each day.

[J. J.]

ag, doesn't inflation hit the middle class the hardest?

The poor aren't hit the hardest because they generally live paycheck to paycheck - they have little savings. And during inflation, wages usually rise just as fast as prices. So the net effect on the poor would be nil.

The wealthy, of course, have assets - homes, stocks, land - that all rise in value with inflation. That protects them.

The middle class though, have cash savings which can easily be wiped out by inflation if not invested. Isn't this what happened during hyperinflation in Germany (of course they're not the same thing, but still)?

Also,doesn't inflation hurt creditors at the expense of debtors? The reason being that debt is not indexed to inflation, so over time, it decreases the debt load, where deflation increases it. This is why poor farmers in the American midwest advocated inflationary (or at least anti-deflationary) policies in the late 19th century.

Hardly anybody has substantial cash lying around in the bank, and most people are a paycheck or two away from serious trouble. Short of the crazy, runaway inflation in unstable nations, the worst inflation does to most people is the "OMGZ, I remember when five cents was a lot of money" crap I hear from my dad. 

Memphis, who was president during our last inflationary period and what happened to him?

[J. J.]

Memphis, who was president during our last inflationary period and what happened to him?

yeah, inflation is like being in a meat grinder.  it makes almost everyone very angry and feel poorer.  I think Americans would explode is they had to endur a couple of years of 10% inflation.

Inflation is a meat grinder for large sums of money in the bank. Something most people don't have. There is a psychological OMGZ I remember when 5 cents was a a lot of money effect that annoys people (and perceptions are important) but it doesn't really make any practical difference.

Yes it does, if you are trying to save money or are on a fixed income.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen, +10 GOP 48/38.

[J. J.]

A CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll has the GOP up by 9% (53%-44%).

Generally an 8-12 point range across polls.

[J. J.]

New Ras generic poll: +6%R (46-40).

It might be an outlier.  That is highest D number since June 2009.  It was a 2 point increase as well.

[J. J.]

Vorlon, you are calling for a sixty seat Republican gain in the House?

[J. J.]

Vorlon, you are calling for a sixty seat Republican gain in the House?

"calling for" would imply advocacy for that outcome, and I don't actually trust the GOP enough to want them to have than many seats. 

There are about 35 Dem seats that are basically "gone", baring some major shift the race is over.  There are another 35 or so where it is very very close, more or less toss-ups  I expect the GOP to win about 3/4s of them or so.  The Dems will likely win back LA2, HI1, and Delaware AL, ~~maybe~~ Illinois 10, so yes 60 seats +/- is the middle of the range.

There are dozens of seats, mainly in the Midwest, that are all very close, so it's really hard to get an exact read right now.  A shift or even 2 or 3 points Nationally changes a couple dozen seats in the house.  It's actually quite exciting.  Depending on the turnout model, GOP gains could be anywhere from 28 to about 105 seats at the extreme ends of the spectrum.

Well, I agree with a 30-35 range of "gone" seats, but I'm a less certain about another 25-30 on top of that.  105 is possible if Obama nominates bin Laden for the Supreme Court.  That 60 seems excessive.

[J. J.]

I wouldn't say 35 seats are dead at this point. Maybe leaning towards the GOP, but the incumbents involved could certainly close the gap in some cases.

Give me a list of flipped seats in 2006 and 2008, and I'll show you 30-35 seats.

[J. J.]

Absolute tightening with Obama's approval numbers also improving.  Tight one this fall.

[J. J.]

That's one hell of a crazy Gallup poll.

Yep, and now you know why I don't particularly like Gallup.  Since 2008, they have been giving really strange numbers.

[J. J.]

Yep, and now you know why I don't particularly like Gallup.  Since 2008 2000, they have been giving really strange numbers.

Fixed.

Actually in 2000, they were within 1-2 points.

Latest ABC/Wash Post poll out today has the GOP +6, which is down from the previous survey.  But the sampling seems to be odd.  There was a 31/25/39 D/R/I split in September in the general sample and 31/26/37 among registered voters.  This October poll changed to 33/23/29 in the general sample and 34/25/37 among registered voters.  Does anyone really think the Dems will have a 9pt turnout advantage?

Well, this year you are correct.  PPP seems to have the most pro-Republican sample.

[J. J.]

I'd be opening the champagne, if I believed Gallup. 

It will be a dry weekend.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen out today showing the GOP +8 in the generic ballot (47-39), which is a 5 pt gain since last week.

Last weeks might have been an outlier.

I think it will be a health GOP year, but not the 70+ seats some are suggesting.

Democrats, just pull the blade away from your wrists.