Latest Generic Polls: Ras +12%R; WSJ 6%R; Gallup 15%R; CNN 10R; Fox13R; Bloom 3R

[Torie]

The poll is here, GOP 48%, Dems 36%.  This spread replicates one from 3 weeks ago by Ras, however.

It might be good to have one thread for all of these generic polls Sam. What do you think?

[Torie]

Well, it is either that, or clutter on your little Board, or no more generic polls, I guess.

[Torie]

You ever imagine what an elephant raping a donkey would look like? The elephant would probably crush the donkey under its weight, leaving only a mangled corpse and some guts on the elephants feet.

Meeker must think that I have been a really bad influence on you. 

[Torie]

Beware of any poll taken the week before Labor Day.  Many people are on vacation.

That said, I'm sure the Republicans have a solid lead in the generic poll - but probably not 12%.

Don't folks out of town on vacation tend to have a GOP bias, or has the correlation between partisan affiliation and wealth become so attenuated now, that any such bias is merely an historical artifact at this point?

[Torie]

As a bonus, here is a Ras poll on partisan affiliation, that has the gap between the parties down to 1.2%, the lowest since back in 2004,  with likely voters even more GOP, pushing the gap down to something unspecified, or closed, or whatever.

And here is a squib that the lead in Illinois by the Dems in partisan affiliation has been cut from 20% to 10%.

cc: Sbane

[Torie]

Politico has a bunch of generic polls listed all showing the a GOP blowout. The headline of the article:  "New polls point to tsunami."  NBC/Wall St. Journal - GOP +9%; ABC/Washington Post GOP +13%.

And here is the reason:

"“Voters were also asked whether they think it is more important to have Democrats in charge of Congress to help support the president's policies or to have Republicans in control to serve as a check on Obama's agenda,” the Post’s Dan Balz and Jon Cohen write. “Here, 55 percent say they prefer Republicans, while 39 percent choose Democrats. The GOP's 16-point edge is double what it was in July.”

Charlie Cook meanwhile, just upped this morning his estimate from 35 seats to 40 seats of the  minimum projected GOP house seat gain.

[Torie]

Thanks for noticing the errata and noting the change in methodology. Are you sure that in the past both polls just used registered voters?

[Torie]

However, the ABC/Wapo poll showing the GOP ahead with LV's by 13%, only has the GOP ahead by 2% among RV's.

[Torie]

I hope it is real. I changed the headline to reflect Smash's input. I will do that from now on, when posters put stuff into this thread that makes the headline dated.

[Torie]

Obama's win in 2008 was the worst thing that ever happened to the Democrats.

BINGO.  And the only way to to give Democrats any chance of a comeback is to make sure he tanks in 2012.  

You two can have wail and gnash your teeth, I'm glad that Obama accomplished what he did with health care and financial regulation and don't give a damn if it means the country flips back for the short term. Republicans are going to get elected on a pure protest vote with almost no ideas other than extending the Bush tax cuts and making life tough for Obama. That's not a mandate for a bright future. This past term has been meaningful and done a lot of good for the country. If nothing else, it means future Democratic Congresses will never again have to tear themselves up over the idea of universal coverage. There will be a time in the future when I would be content for Democrats to merely govern, and not legislate, but that time wasn't 2008-2009 after 30 years of conservative government. A Republican victory in 2010 sets us up for a clash of ideas in 2012. Bring it on. Viva democracy.

Well said. That is the kind of attitude that I admire. In the end it is about policy; it is not a football game.

[Torie]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I wish it were so. That's a noble sentiment; it is only contradicted by all the evidence.

Yes, the sentiment is not widely shared; the point is to accomplish something worthy while in power (as you see it in your own best and honest judgment), not to become a careerist, and maximize one's tenure.

[Torie]

Folks, there is a time when you trust generic polls somewhat.  It's known as the week before the election.

Nevertheless, what I'm seeing right now suggests a 40-50 seat gain for the GOP right now, and the possible floor of 35-40 that Cook is talking about and 45 that Vorlon said earlier.  Need to adjust.

40-50 is your number if the election were held tomorrow?  I'm at 65 myself.

Yes, I suspect that the odds are that it will regress some. The Dems will not just sit around and die, and folks may decide that too much of a "good thing" is a bad thing.

[Torie]

For those interested, there is a long interview with Ras here. I found it reasonably interesting, but alas he was not asked why he does not poll right before primaries.

[Torie]

RCP has an article going over a bunch of polls, generic and race specific. The shocker was that the GOP challenger was ahead by 4-5 points in MI-9.  Michigan seems to be joining Ohio as a blowout state.

[Torie]

A CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll has the GOP up by 9% (53%-44%).

[Torie]

New Ras generic poll: +6%R (46-40).

[Torie]

I assume Vorlon's use of the word "gone" means "behind."  Is that a correct assumption? I agree with him that a massive number of seats seem to be in play. This is a national issues oriented election, and so the individual personalities, and prior electoral track records mean a lot less, than in most elections. And nobody is interested in what goodies you can bring to the district, because voters sense the the "goodies era" is just so over.

There will be a lot of quite tight elections to track in House seats come this November if the current client still obtains then.

And we are flying somewhat blind with all these poll snippets, some used for disinformation purposes. So we rely on Charlie Cook and the like who have more access to quality internal polls. So we play the inference game, with money watches, and so forth. The one who calls the number of seats won by the GOP in this game will have won the guess game primarily due to one factor it seems - luck.

[Torie]

Do the moderators update the title of the thread, or is it up to the original poster? We have three Ras numbers in there and I think Gallup has changed...

I update it, adding the new poll on the left side of the headline, and dropping the oldest poll the farthest to the left when I run into space limitations. I will add the Gallup poll now.

[Torie]

Ras has the GOP up by 9%.

[Torie]

Here is an interesting discussion of the gap between Gallup, and in particular its low turnout model, and the average of the pack. Could it be that most polls are overestimating turnout, and thus underestimating the percentage of the voters who will be Pubbies?

[Torie]

Gallup can hardly be correct as shown in my thread there:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=125997.msg2685829#msg2685829

If the Republicans sweep the Senate elections with ridiculously huge margins (see second chart), then it is GOP+12, but I don´t see GOP+17 ...

Based on current polls it`s about R+6 ...

You are just reverse engineering the poll numbers, which will not assist you in dealing with the matter of whether there will be disproportionate partisan turnout models, which get more disproportionate as the turnout declines. Using a 76% figure, translates into a 43.2% turnout (.76*.568.  Per my link, most polls seem to be assuming a higher turnout than that; well at least Gallup's low turnout number is 40%, and high turnout number is 55%, and 43% is a lot closer to 40%.  What turnout level other polls are assuming, I don't know. 

[Torie]

It should come out the same, if the turnout percentage numbers on my link are accurate, whether you use percentages of absolute numbers that are in the form of two numbers, one in the numerator, and one in the denominator, which fraction converts to a percentage. The percentages are derived from absolute numbers.

In any event, based on any paradigm of the past, the high turnout percentage of Gallup of 55% is well - just ludicrous. It probably will be below 45% - maybe well below, unless Obama succeeds in his mission to get his hardcore base out to vote, rather than remain too depressed to bestir themselves.

[Torie]

Well I agree that this election is all about Obama, his policies, and more importantly, particularly in zip codes like mine, confidence or lack thereof in his judgment. In the end, in this complex world, with relatively few real options as to which ideology has much relevance, it all comes down to judgment.

[Torie]

WSJ/NBC poll, GOP +7% (50-43).

[Torie]

Pew says GOP +10 (+4 in RV, but that's becoming less relevant by the day)

http://people-press.org/report/666/

It seems rather difficult for me to see how the GOP could beat the Dems by 10%, but not win at least 60 seats. And that is the thing. Nobody knows what the real turnout model should be in all of these polls, particularly for the House.