Latest Generic Polls: Ras +12%R; WSJ 6%R; Gallup 15%R; CNN 10R; Fox13R; Bloom 3R

[Dan the Roman]

RCP has an article going over a bunch of polls, generic and race specific. The shocker was that the GOP challenger was ahead by 4-5 points in MI-9.  Michigan seems to be joining Ohio as a blowout state.

Peters barely won in a 2008 wave in which he underperformed Obama by about 7% against a very weak incumbent and was on everyone's endangered list from that moment onwards. Its an overwhelmingly Republican area on the local level, and in that respect looks a lot like PA-06 or PA-12 for the GOP, ie. fools gold because the PVI is highly misleading. It was quite obviously a top fifteen target along with MI-7 even in a neutral year, and it falling is like hearing that AZ-05 is. Bad news, but far less scary than the CA-20 poll, or the MA-10 primary numbers. Now those point more towards a 50+ seat loss.

[Dan the Roman]

I am going to be the odd one out here and predict based on the MA special election that turnout will be quite bit higher than 2006 and 2002 levels. Evidence from Ohio, Iowa, and Nevada has both Democrats and Republicans easily beating 2006 numbers. Quite frankly I suspect its mostly going to be independents and young voters who crater this year.

The thing is, most predictions of low turnout, other than in Virginia last year, failed to pan out. Both the MA special election and the Maine Gay Marriage vote turned in about normal midterm turnout, and with early voting there is no excuse for less.