Latest Generic Polls: Ras +12%R; WSJ 6%R; Gallup 15%R; CNN 10R; Fox13R; Bloom 3R

[CARLHAYDEN]

Politico has a bunch of generic polls listed all showing the a GOP blowout. The headline of the article:  "New polls point to tsunami."  NBC/Wall St. Journal - GOP +9%; CBS/Washington Post GOP +13%.

And here is the reason:

"“Voters were also asked whether they think it is more important to have Democrats in charge of Congress to help support the president's policies or to have Republicans in control to serve as a check on Obama's agenda,” the Post’s Dan Balz and Jon Cohen write. “Here, 55 percent say they prefer Republicans, while 39 percent choose Democrats. The GOP's 16-point edge is double what it was in July.”

Uh, Torie,

Its ABC/Washington Post, not CBS/Washington Post.

Also, note the changeover in methodology in polls from RV to LV.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Thanks for noticing the errata and noting the change in methodology. Are you sure that in the past both polls just used registered voters?

You're welcome

ABC/Post   7/7-11/10     1151   RV    47    46    -    7 -        +1R
ABC/Post   6/3-6/10          ?       RV   44    47    2    6    1    +3D
ABC/Post   4/22-25/10    870    RV    43    48    1    8    1    +5D

[CARLHAYDEN]

I guess the latest Gallup isn't very interesting since it's a tie instead of R+10.

Jfern,

When The Vorlon posted the thread about Gallup showing a 10 point Republican lead, I concurred with him that the next poll would likely be far more favorable to Democrats, and that due to its methodology, Gallup is over short terms, far more erratic than many other survey research firms.

That being said, there are a couple of other reasons for discounting the Gallup poll you cite.

First, it is a Registered Voter poll in a mid-term election.  Since turnout is far lower in such elections, Registered Voter polls are even more unreliable  than in Presidential elections.

Second, if you read the entire Gallup release, you will note that they concede that intensity favors Republicans in their own poll.  That's a fance way of saying that if it were a Likely Voter poll, it would have given the Republicans an edge.

Third, there is some validity to the methodology (as well as problems) used by RealClearPolitics (and others) in blending several polls.  After all, there is a generally accepted statistical likelihood that one out of twenty polls will have a Margain of error greater than the one which the size of the sample would create.

So, in conclusion, lets see what the polls show, both from Gallup and other sources, for the next few days, before jumping to conclusions based on one poll.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Gallup had some really strong swings in the previous few weeks.

Republicans up 10 points, then tied!?!

Their current 5 point lead for Republicans seems a little more reasonable.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Gallup had some really strong swings in the previous few weeks.

Republicans up 10 points, then tied!?!

Their current 5 point lead for Republicans seems a little more reasonable.

Gallup is a mess... the worst pollster. On this forum, the word gallup should be forbidden.

I must disagree.

Polimetrix is probably THE most inaccurate, closely followed by Washington Post (they usually combine with ABC) and PSRA.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Warning!

There is a new Roper poll coming out which (based on initial limited data) appears to be wildly off!

So, when it appears, please be skeptical.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Gallup
9/13-19/10; 2,925 registered voters, 2% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews

2010 Congress: Generic Ballot
46% Democrat, 45% Republican


Rasmussen
9/13-19/10; 3,500 likely voters, 2% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone

2010 Congress: Generic Ballot
48% Republican, 38% Democrat

Hmm, interesting contrast we have here.  Surprised to see the Dems leading on the Gallup ballot though.

Gallup has had some really weird swings in its surveys the past few weeks.

Expect the next Gallup poll to show the Republicans up several points, given the pendulum trend of Gallup.

[CARLHAYDEN]

PSRA ‘jumps the shark’

In a recent poll for Newsweek, Princeton Survey Research Associates really outdoes itself.

Long know as one of the most left-leaning pollsters, in its 10/1/10 release, PSRA would have us believe that 96% of Democrat Registered Voters indicate that they are supporting or leaning to supporting the Democrat candidate for Congress, with only 2% supporting or leaning to support the Republican candidate!

In 2008 (according to Edison exit polls), 92% of Democrat voters supported the Democrat and 7% the Republican candidate.  That’s pretty much the same as 2006, when 93% supported the Democrat candidate (again, according to Edison).  In 2004, it was 90%.

Both for adults and registered voters, PSRA gives the Democrats an eight point lead, whereas Pollster’s aggregation of polls gives then a five point lead among adults, and a one point lead among ‘registered and likely voters.’

These ‘quirks’ in PSRA’s methodology probably explain, (at least in part) why it gives a generic Democrat advantage of 5 points while Opinion Dynamics and Rasmussen indicate a 6 point Republican advantage.

When checking RealClearPolitics generic ballot page, the last time any of the polls they use came up with a Democrat advantage of more than 2 points, was back in July!

[CARLHAYDEN]

Latest ABC/Wash Post poll out today has the GOP +6, which is down from the previous survey.  But the sampling seems to be odd.  There was a 31/25/39 D/R/I split in September in the general sample and 31/26/37 among registered voters.  This October poll changed to 33/23/29 in the general sample and 34/25/37 among registered voters.  Does anyone really think the Dems will have a 9pt turnout advantage?

Usually, when WaPo is involved, either by itself or in association with ABC, they numbers list heavily to the Democrats.

[CARLHAYDEN]

PSRA ‘jumps the shark’

In a recent poll for Newsweek, Princeton Survey Research Associates really outdoes itself.

Long know as one of the most left-leaning pollsters, in its 10/1/10 release, PSRA would have us believe that 96% of Democrat Registered Voters indicate that they are supporting or leaning to supporting the Democrat candidate for Congress, with only 2% supporting or leaning to support the Republican candidate!

In 2008 (according to Edison exit polls), 92% of Democrat voters supported the Democrat and 7% the Republican candidate.  That’s pretty much the same as 2006, when 93% supported the Democrat candidate (again, according to Edison).  In 2004, it was 90%.

Both for adults and registered voters, PSRA gives the Democrats an eight point lead, whereas Pollster’s aggregation of polls gives then a five point lead among adults, and a one point lead among ‘registered and likely voters.’

These ‘quirks’ in PSRA’s methodology probably explain, (at least in part) why it gives a generic Democrat advantage of 5 points while Opinion Dynamics and Rasmussen indicate a 6 point Republican advantage.

When checking RealClearPolitics generic ballot page, the last time any of the polls they use came up with a Democrat advantage of more than 2 points, was back in July!

PSRA....  almost as amusing as Zogby... not quite, but they are trying hard.

I got your email, I have made afew inquiries

Thanks.

I really find PSRA to be one of the most unreliable polling organizations.

If you check their numbers against others, they pretty consistently lean pretty heavily to the Democrats for years.

Interestingly enough, a couple of Democrat pollsters (Greenberg and PPP) seem pretty good, and even CBS is better than PSRA.