Latest Generic Polls: Ras +12%R; WSJ 6%R; Gallup 15%R; CNN 10R; Fox13R; Bloom 3R

[Dgov]

If you also take into account that Republicans almost always outperform the generic ballot...

How many points do you add to all of these ballot results to "adjust" for this phenomenon?

Why, 6 of course

[Dgov]

Not Technically a Generic Ballot, but the parties have similar favorable rankings among registered voters.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/143213/Republican-Democratic-Party-Favorability-Identical.aspx

Which is terrible for the Democrats, as their 53% disapproval rating is the highest it's ever been by 6-7 points, and for all their talk about the Tea party making the GOP unelectable, the party has gained about 10 approval points since they first emerged in early 2009.

[Dgov]

Gallup released it's Generic ballot data:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/143330/Midterms-Dems-Gain-Young-Voters-Slip-Hispanics.aspx#1

Basically, Democrats are ahead 19 points with the Youth vote, roughly even with middle-aged voters, and are 12 points behind with the elderly.  This represents roughly a 6-point swing from August in all groups but the elderly, and the highest margin millennials have given the Democrats since the HC bill passed.

Also, Democrats are ahead 81 points with the Black vote, 13 points with the Hispanic vote, and behind 14 points with the White vote.  Hispanics here have shown the biggest swing, with Democrats going from plus 32 in June and July to plus 13 now.  Throw in the turnout gap and you would probably see this number drop into the low single digits.  This represents the best GOP congressional showing with them, ever.

Finally, Democrats are ahead a whopping 18 points in the East, but lose the West, Midwest and South by 3,4, and 9 respectively.

This all correlates to a 46-46 even electorate with registered voters, and probably a 51-46 Popular vote if you factor in turnout.

[Dgov]

Republicans are now even on the Illinois Generic ballot, and are up 50-37 outside of Chicago according to PPP.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_IL_101.pdf

This actually says alot about Kirk, as he's actually 4 points below the statewide generic R level (which is terrible considering his opponent).  Also, since the not-Chicago IL congressional seats are relatively even in their CPVI, it's fair to say that the GOP is leading the generic ballot is almost every non-Cook county-based Congressional District (the 3rd and 9th are still safely Democratic).  That doesn't mean they'll win the 8th, 10th, 11th, 14th, and 17th necessarily, but it does not look good for the Democrats in the Midwest.

[Dgov]

A followup to the Gallup Generic Bombshell:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/143468/Likely-Voters-Demographically-Typical-Skew-Conservative.aspx

Basically, the Gallup "Low" turnout model has the 2010 Electorate at 54% Conservative, 27% Moderate, and 18% Liberal.  Also comes down to 39% Republican, 18% Lean Republican, 3% Pure Independent, 9% Lean Democrat, and 30% Democrat, for a total 57-39 spread (which fits their 56-38 Generic Ballot edge).

Needless to say, if these numbers are anything close to the actual electorate, Democrats are in for probably the worst drubbing since 1894.  For Comparison, the numbers in 1994 were 40% Conservative, 48% Moderate, 12% Liberal, along with 38% Republican, 11% Lean Republican, 7% Pure Independent, 11% Lean Democrat, and 33% Democrat, for a total 49-44 spread, which matched their generic ballot edge of 3 points.

So compared to 1994, Conservatives have gained 14 Points, Liberals have gained 6 points, and Moderates have lost 21 points.  Republicans/leaning Republicans have gained 8 points, Democrats/leaning Democrats have lost 5 points, and pure Independents have lost 3 points.

As for the other demographics, not much is changed from 2006.  Older voters make up 3 points more of the electorate, and 34-49 year-old voters make up 3 points less.  Of note is the fact that the electorate is actually 5 points less white (79% compared to 84%) than 2006, but this is not significantly different from 2008's 76% White electorate, though it does suggest most of the drop is from Black voters rather than Hispanics.

[Dgov]

As for Gallup, this number is horrific. The entire basis of the New Democratic party built up by Bill Clinton was moderates. That's now collapsed, with almost all the shift moving towards the conservative side. I don't think Obama can possibly recover from this. He's likely a one term President.

Remember, this is their low-turnout model.  I.e., this is as bad as it could possibly get (which isn't saying much though).  The US isn't actually 54% Conservative (though I'd like it to be), that's just the turnout model they're using.  The Republicans can still totally F this up (which they've shown themselves very capable of doing), but Obama is going to have to really work for his re-election.  If you notice on the Gallup page, between 1994 and 1998 the percentage of Conservatives grew from 40 to 46, yet the number of self-described Republicans actually fell from 49 to 45, as Clinton successfully courted the middle.

However, the Clinton "New Democrats" were basically snuffed out in 2008 when Liberals calculated that they didn't really need them anymore.  It's just a matter of getting them back.

[Dgov]

Actually, if you compare this Gallup poll with their earlier, registered-voter one, the GOP could be on parity with Hispanic voters.  They were down 13 points with registered Hispanics, and Gallup's low turnout model has the GOP 10 points above the registered voter levels.  Combine that with Liberal Hispanics being less likely than most to vote in the midterms, and you might see an even or better

This is all speculation of course.  I really wish Gallup would release their generic ballot crosstabs like they do for presidential approval ratings.

[Dgov]

Gallup is now out.  Very similar numbers to last week.  It is at political wire but I don't have the access for links yet.  High turnout is 53%-41% for Republicans while low turnout is 56% to 39% for Republicans.

Basically identical, Democrats are up a point in all categories, and Republicans are up a point in registered voters.

[Dgov]

According the RCP, the Democrats were starting to gain in the second half of September, however, it seems Republicans regained the momentum. RCP currently has it at R +6.8, practically tied for the highest Republican margin this cycle.

Well, the Gallup polls certainly helped that out a lot.

[Dgov]

Here is a chart of the gains RCP projects the GOP will make in the House. The trajectory is not pretty for the Dems.

Part of that is probably the overall switch to Likely Voter models, which probably pushed their average up considerably.

But still, the 2nd cardinal sin of politics is to believe that just because a trend exists, it will continue.  Just because the Republicans have made major gains in the last few weeks doesn't mean they'll make even more gains later on.