1972: How would the map look if...

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

How would the map look for George McGovern in 1972, if he run a much better campaign, wasn't forced to dump Eagleton (scandal never happens) and without a whole "Amnesty, Abortion and Acid" thing? In other words, best McGovern scenario (I still think Nixon would win).

Maps?

[hcallega]

Well here's what it would look like if we gave a five-point swing to McGovern. That may be too much, but if he does everything perfectly while still holding to his values and Nixon still campaigning the way he did, then it's possible.

Nixon/Agnew (R) 55.67%, 492 EVs
McGovern/Eagleton (D) 42.57%, 46 EVs
Schmitz/Angerson (AI) 1.42%

Oregon is by far the closest state in this scenario, and just narrowly goes to Nixon. This really shows just how weak McGovern was. By comparison, here is Mondale vs. Reagan with a five point swing.

Reagan/Bush (R) 53.77% of the PV, 418 EVs
Mondale/Ferraro (D) 45.56% of the PV, 120 EVs

It's interesting to see that Mondale really did do well among blue-collar voters, just not well enough clearly.

[Thomas D]

Nixon 449-89

[Dancing with Myself]

Nixon wins 497 to 41

Washington barely goes to Nixon

[Bo]

Nixon wins 445-93. Maybe I was too generous giving NY to McGovern, but I think he might have barely been able to squeak through there if he ran a much better campaign.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

Possibly NY and IL as well.

[Dr. Cynic]

This is me being pretty generous to George. 1972 America just wasn't ready for McGovern. Humphrey and Muskie both either could've won or well outperform him had either been the nominee.