PPP: Democrats lead in Maine-01 and Maine-02

[Tender Branson]

Maine-01:

47% - Chellie Pingree (D)
38% - Dean Scontras (R)

Maine-02:

45% - Mike Michaud (D)
38% - Jason Levesque (R)

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_ME_909.pdf

[Meeker]

Good numbers.

[Torie]

I don't know how great these numbers are for the Dems. ME2 is PVI Dem+3%, and ME1 is PVI Dem+6%. So a margin of 7% by the Dem would erode to about an even for a PVI even district (235th most GOP district), and the 9% lead would erode down to a PVI Dem +1.5% district (253rd most GOP district). So that translates in both instances to a GOP takeover of the House (with a big margin in the case of ME-1) based on districts were 1) the Dems are well entrenched, and at least in the case of ME-2, presumably well liked, and 2) the GOP opponents while having raised and spent some money, it has in both instances been under 100K spent, and a fraction of what the Dem incumbents have spent.

[Iosif]

I don't know how great these numbers are for the Dems. ME2 is PVI Dem+3%, and ME1 is PVI Dem+6%. So a margin of 7% by the Dem would erode to about an even for a PVI even district (235th most GOP district), and the 9% lead would erode down to a PVI Dem +1.5% district (253rd most GOP district). So that translates in both instances to a GOP takeover of the House (with a big margin in the case of ME-1) based on districts were 1) the Dems are well entrenched, and at least in the case of ME-2, presumably well liked, and 2) the GOP opponents while having raised and spent some money, it has in both instances been under 100K spent, and a fraction of what the Dem incumbents have spent.

Flawless reason.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I've been saying for a while, Democrats should be glad for any poll that shows a Democrat winning. They're not going to get much more than that this year.

[Beet]

I've been saying for a while, Democrats should be glad for any poll that shows a Democrat winning. They're not going to get much more than that this year.

I agree esp. Pingree since she only got 55% last time. Michaud has been there longer so I'd worry more that he's not doing better. But any poll that shows a Dem winning is good for Dems, esp. when the districts are overwhelmingly white.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     I'm rather surprised that the Democrats are not winning by bigger margins up in Maine. Combined with the recent poll of the Gubernatorial race, Maine seems like it has been softening up more than any other base state of theirs outside of the West Coast.

[Beet]

    I'm rather surprised that the Democrats are not winning by bigger margins up in Maine. Combined with the recent poll of the Gubernatorial race, Maine seems like it has been softening up more than any other base state of theirs outside of the West Coast.

Yes, and outside of Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Massachusetts and (possibly) New Jersey.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Michaud has only been in Congress for eight years. He won 52% in 2002 and 58% in 2004. It's not really that surprising that he's returning to that level of support after two extremely good cycles for Democrats.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     I'm rather surprised that the Democrats are not winning by bigger margins up in Maine. Combined with the recent poll of the Gubernatorial race, Maine seems like it has been softening up more than any other base state of theirs outside of the West Coast.

Yes, and outside of Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Massachusetts and (possibly) New Jersey.

     I don't think of Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, or New Jersey as being Democratic base states. For obvious reasons, a state can't really be considered part of one's base if it would be fairly close in a 50/50 Presidential election.

[Meeker]

I've been saying for a while, Democrats should be glad for any poll that shows a Democrat winning. They're not going to get much more than that this year.

^^^

If the wave was Bad as opposed to bad I would think these districts would be vulnerable. The fact that we're ahead, given the current circumstances, is pretty positive.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Michaud has never faced a tough election year since he won ME-2 when it was open. It's not surprising that he would only be up by 7 against a weak opponent.

[SamInTheSouth]

Good numbers.

Is that a joke?  Maine is a reliably Democratic state and you have two Democratic incumbents polling under 50% with their challengers not far behind.  The Democratic base is not motivated and the Republican base is.  Conventional wisdom says undecideds typically break for the challenger.  You do the math.

[DrScholl]

Maine has two Republican senators who have been re-elected in good Democratic years, it's not as if Republicans don't have an opening here, so I would expect some tightening here. That said, it's good to see the Democrats in the lead and closer to 50% than their opponents.

[Meeker]

Good numbers.

Is that a joke?  Maine is a reliably Democratic state and you have two Democratic incumbents polling under 50% with their challengers not far behind.  The Democratic base is not motivated and the Republican base is.  Conventional wisdom says undecideds typically break for the challenger.  You do the math.

Nope, not a joke. If the GOP wave was going to be really big they'd be winning one or both of these districts. To be in the lead is good news right now.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Yet again, Michaud has never faced a wave and Pingree is a weak candidate in general. It was in the realm of possibility for this PPP poll to show them in lots of trouble.

[minionofmidas]

     I'm rather surprised that the Democrats are not winning by bigger margins up in Maine. Combined with the recent poll of the Gubernatorial race, Maine seems like it has been softening up more than any other base state of theirs outside of the West Coast.

Yes, and outside of Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Massachusetts and (possibly) New Jersey.

     I don't think of Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, or New Jersey as being Democratic base states. For obvious reasons, a state can't really be considered part of one's base if it would be fairly close in a 50/50 Presidential election.

Right. Which rules out Maine.

[ajc0918]

Could LePage coattails help win one of these?
or are gubernatorial coattails not felt in congressional races?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Could LePage coattails help win one of these?
or are gubernatorial coattails not felt in congressional races?

Considering LePage is likely to win with less than 50% of the vote, I don't see how he can have "coattails".

[Dan the Roman]

Could LePage coattails help win one of these?
or are gubernatorial coattails not felt in congressional races?

They probably explain the closeness of ME-2. Waterville, LePage's hometown, along with Lewiston/Auburn, which is the heart of the Franco-American American population, are both in the second district. Add two socially liberal opponents with bases in the South and on the Seacoast respectively and you are looking at a polarized race.

It should be noted that political identity in Maine is far more mutable than elseware, and based on geography. In the 2002 race pitting a Portland Businessman against a Democratic Congressman from Northern Maine, the Republican actually won the first district while losing statewide 47-42. This time there should be a minimum ten point split between the districts if not a lot more.

So LePage is probably hurting Michaud a lot, and being neutral or slightly helpful to Pingree.