Democrats after 2010 census

[Alcon]

It's not one election. We're making gains in registration.

This is a state where both chambers of the state legislature are comfortably Republican, and where the GOP governor got elected with a double digit margin.

Governorships don't necessarily have anything to do with the state in question, nor legislature. I have not seen registration statistics updated for the latest election. That's the only thing I'd consider looking at.

In any case, I think much of it was Bush's hurricane help. I expect a minor Republican advantage.

[M]

Hurricane yes, and that Florida is a security state (because of proximity to Cuba and number of Israel voters). In the long run it is probably trending dem, but it's sort of a kooky state.

[Gustaf]

You're forgetting one thing. Castro will die soon and Cuba might cease to be an issue. If that happens, Florida will swing towards the Dems. I think that in 2008 the Upper Midwest, the Southwest and FLorida are the states that will be competitive. Ohio and Pennsylvania will be where they are today.

Florida is gonna be the key battleground next time. THe Dem candidate has to win it, it's the only way for a Democratic candidate to get 270 EVs.

[Gustaf]

Oh, btw, what's going on in the Midwest??

I have no idea about it right now...Minnesota, which everyone thought was trending GOP bucked that trend decisevely this year. Michigan was the reversed and WI and IA remained dead centre. What's going on??? Are these states going anywhere and if they are, where is that?

[Ben.]

Hey, how about this one.

Stop wondering about a population shift in 2010 and start thinking about putting up a good canidate in 2008.

We all know that Scary Kerry is not the answer.

Thanks for the insight.