NV: Ipsos: 3rd state poll out today: Tie

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Nevada Senator by Ipsos on 2010-09-14

Summary: D: 46%, R: 44%, I: 3%, U: 8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Eraserhead]

Exactly the same as Mason-Dixon. It's pretty clear where this race stands.

[tpfkaw]

So Reid barely leads - within the margin of error.  The election would depend on turnout if it were held today.

[Tender Branson]

Interesting side fact:

Even though the Ipsos and Mason-Dixon leads are the same (Reid+2), the turnout model of these likely voters is completely different.

Ipsos: 50% R, 40% D, 8% I (or 38% R, 29% D, 31% I without leaners)

Mason-Dixon: 43% D, 41% R, 16% I

[tpfkaw]

Which means that one of them got a bad sample.