US House Redistricting: Ohio

[TJ in Oregon]

Southeast:
6. Johnson- it’s a shame he lives so close to Youngstown. When I tried this, I gave him all the southeast instead of Stark County (with I gave to Gibbs) but whyat Torie drew is probably better because Johnson is harder to protect than Gibbs because Gibbs’s home is in the middle of some very, very Republican areas.

18. Gibbs- I originally gave him most of Renacci’s current district (including Stark County) but the interior Southeast will work as well. I gave Athens to Schmidt so giving it to Gibbs is a little different. Otherwise, all you can really do is try to make Gibbs and Johnson about equally safe and hope for the best.

[TJ in Oregon]

Toledo:
9. Kaptur- shave down Toledo as much as possible so she can take as much of Lorain/Elyria/Cleveland? as possible. I originally thought the Republicans would check the gerrymander at the Lorain/Cuyahoga County line but clearly going to Cleveland is a better plan.

5. Latta- this takes all the land leftover from everywhere else and should be fairly safe unless you do something crazy like give him inner-city Toledo or Lorain or Columbus.

[TJ in Oregon]

Columbus:
4. Jordan- run this one straight into Columbus to crack it. I had no precinct data, so I just guessed he would get 219,000 people who vote 66% Obama (I tried to give him more of the black areas since the rest of his district is safer). I also think (though I am not totally sure) that the southern part of Franklin County is more heavily Democratic than the northern part.

15. Stivers- I think he’ll end up with most of Delaware County because everything will have to expand to the northeast. Other than that I’m not really sure. I think I guessed his Franklin County share would be about 58% Obama.

7. Austria- give him a little more of Columbus otherwise the same same. I guessed his Franklin County part would be about 64% Obama.

12. Tiberi- he’ll have to gain some part of Knox, Morrow, Richland, and Ashland counties to make his seat safer.

I realize my Columbus thoughts are pretty much useless and must admit I know practically nothing about the geography of that city.

[Torie]

Jordon (OH-04) in my map just sucked up in a gratifyingly efficient manner (a nice little prong to the SE from his SE corner of his new CD), about 90,000 residents from Stivers' CD, few of which are in precincts that are  more than about 30% McCain, and most heavily black. We shall see if he can take the hit, but the balance of his CD basically hates Dems, so I suspect he can. It was an elongated sliver of course into Stivers' CD, leaving everything else in his old CD (what is left of it) in place. Now Stivers' CD will jut north like a knife to get the population he needs. Franklin has its precincts well organized in spreadsheet form, so I should be able to do all of this with some alacrity, without missing a precinct in the sense of putting it in the "wrong" CD, as I "see" what is "right" and "wrong."

[minionofmidas]

we have different philosophies I think. I don't care much who represents a +5% GOP CD. The Dem will either be house broken, and a moderate, or will be gone in short order. If that means means a few weak Pubbies go down the drain in the meantime, that is probably for the best. If Schmidt can't win a +9% GOP PVI CD, then good riddance to her!  

Spoken like a true RINO.
You see, this is exactly why it's dubious that Republican operatives would go with your maps - they don't agree with that premise. At all.

[minionofmidas]

I take that back. You're not a rhinoceros. You are a gorgeous octopus.
Doesn't change the rest of the statement, though.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Columbus:
4. Jordan- run this one straight into Columbus to crack it. I had no precinct data, so I just guessed he would get 219,000 people who vote 66% Obama (I tried to give him more of the black areas since the rest of his district is safer). I also think (though I am not totally sure) that the southern part of Franklin County is more heavily Democratic than the northern part.

15. Stivers- I think he’ll end up with most of Delaware County because everything will have to expand to the northeast. Other than that I’m not really sure. I think I guessed his Franklin County share would be about 58% Obama.

7. Austria- give him a little more of Columbus otherwise the same same. I guessed his Franklin County part would be about 64% Obama.

12. Tiberi- he’ll have to gain some part of Knox, Morrow, Richland, and Ashland counties to make his seat safer.

I realize my Columbus thoughts are pretty much useless and must admit I know practically nothing about the geography of that city.

Tiberi lives in Delaware County, so Stivers can't get that

[muon2]

Jordon (OH-04) in my map just sucked up in a gratifyingly efficient manner (a nice little prong to the SE from his SE corner of his new CD), about 90,000 residents from Stivers' CD, few of which are in precincts that are  more than about 30% McCain, and most heavily black. We shall see if he can take the hit, but the balance of his CD basically hates Dems, so I suspect he can. It was an elongated sliver of course into Stivers' CD, leaving everything else in his old CD (what is left of it) in place. Now Stivers' CD will jut north like a knife to get the population he needs. Franklin has its precincts well organized in spreadsheet form, so I should be able to do all of this with some alacrity, without missing a precinct in the sense of putting it in the "wrong" CD, as I "see" what is "right" and "wrong."

Your OH-4 is a model for a mathematical redistricting paper I read recently. The statistical analysis concluded that it was best to pair extremes from both parties with a slight edge to the mapper's side to have the most effective gerrymander. Nominally that should be more successful than pairing and extreme R area with a moderate D area or vice versa.

[Torie]

Yes, after playing this game for awhile, typically you do have a sea of marginal territory, a Pubbie zone to push the PVI up to where you want it, and sometimes the Pubbie zone is strong enough to absorb some hostile Dem town or two. OH-04 as I am drawing it, is the exception to the rule. It has almost no marginal territory at all: outside its share of Franklin, Dems are hated, and inside its share of Franklin, Pubbies are hated. So after OH-04 has absorbed this so far in Franklin from OH-15: 18,230 McCain, 39,175 Obama, McCain percentage 31.76%, it still has a GOP PVI of 11%! Which means that since the four CD's in the chop collectively have a 5% GOP PVI,  OH-07 is going to able to do only about a quarter of the work of Dem neutralization.

The problem with this is that the Dem areas are all in the south, in both OH-15 and OH-12, and while OH-04 has about done just enough to get OH-15 over a 4% GOP PVI (most of the under 40% McCain precincts in OH-15 have now been absorbed), OH-12 just has oceans of heavily black precincts; in fact all the yellow that you see in the map below as far east as the NE corner of the brown jut on the map, that reflects what OH-07 is doing under the map drawn 10 years ago, is heavily black east of the blue band, and going north all the way to about the latitude that the northern edge that my blue zone currently has. Now I know why Columbus is so Dem. It's black! There is no way that OH-07 is going to be able to cope with it.

So, Stivers is going to have to have an almost entirely new CD, losing the southern end of his old CD south of whatever links OH-04 to the Dem zone,  plus Madison County, to OH-07.  All he will have is his home precinct, a band running to the north into a friendlier GOP zone, and then take in the NW corner of Franklin, the west end of Delaware, and then into my unassigned zone. There simply is no other way to do it. The Pubbies that are needed to offset Columbus are mostly to the north and northwest, not to the south and east.

In short, it's a nightmare. The CD with the Pubbies (oh-04) is to the NW, and the Dems to be absorbed are to the SE of the Columbus area. It just sucks!

[Torie]

Columbus:
4. Jordan- run this one straight into Columbus to crack it. I had no precinct data, so I just guessed he would get 219,000 people who vote 66% Obama (I tried to give him more of the black areas since the rest of his district is safer). I also think (though I am not totally sure) that the southern part of Franklin County is more heavily Democratic than the northern part.

15. Stivers- I think he’ll end up with most of Delaware County because everything will have to expand to the northeast. Other than that I’m not really sure. I think I guessed his Franklin County share would be about 58% Obama.

7. Austria- give him a little more of Columbus otherwise the same same. I guessed his Franklin County part would be about 64% Obama.

12. Tiberi- he’ll have to gain some part of Knox, Morrow, Richland, and Ashland counties to make his seat safer.

I realize my Columbus thoughts are pretty much useless and must admit I know practically nothing about the geography of that city.

Tiberi lives in Delaware County, so Stivers can't get that

No Tiberi lives in Columbus. I know his address from a title company, and his bio says he lives in Columbus to boot so the home he owns, is the one in which he resides for voting purposes.

[dpmapper]

Yes, after playing this game for awhile, typically you do have a sea of marginal territory, a Pubbie zone to push the PVI up to where you want it, and sometimes the Pubbie zone is strong enough to absorb some hostile Dem town or two. OH-04 as I am drawing it, is the exception to the rule. It has almost no marginal territory at all: outside its share of Franklin, Dems are hated, and inside its share of Franklin, Pubbies are hated. So after OH-04 has absorbed this so far in Franklin from OH-15: 18,230 McCain, 39,175 Obama, McCain percentage 31.76%, it still has a GOP PVI of 11%! Which means that since the four CD's in the chop collectively have a 5% GOP PVI,  OH-07 is going to able to do only about a quarter of the work of Dem neutralization.

The problem with this is that the Dem areas are all in the south, in both OH-15 and OH-12, and while OH-04 has about done just enough to get OH-15 over a 4% GOP PVI (most of the under 40% McCain precincts in OH-15 have now been absorbed), OH-12 just has oceans of heavily black precincts; in fact all the yellow that you see in the map below as far east as the NE corner of the brown jut on the map, that reflects what OH-07 is doing under the map drawn 10 years ago, is heavily black east of the blue band, and going north all the way to about the latitude that the northern edge that my blue zone currently has. Now I know why Columbus is so Dem. It's black! There is no way that OH-07 is going to be able to cope with it.

So, Stivers is going to have to have an almost entirely new CD, losing the southern end of his old CD south of whatever links OH-04 to the Dem zone,  plus Madison County, to OH-07.  All he will have is his home precinct, a band running to the north into a friendlier GOP zone, and then take in the NW corner of Franklin, the west end of Delaware, and then into my unassigned zone. There simply is no other way to do it. The Pubbies that are needed to offset Columbus are mostly to the north and northwest, not to the south and east.

In short, it's a nightmare. The CD with the Pubbies (oh-04) is to the NW, and the Dems to be absorbed are to the SE of the Columbus area. It just sucks!

Why don't you run Jordan into Columbus via Madison Cty rather than Union? This gives Stivers more access to the counties to the north; he and Tiberi can take the current eastern parts of OH-04, and Jordan has easier access to the south side of Franklin Cty. 

[Torie]

Yes, it is either that, or having OH-07 take that territory to the south of the OH-04 thrust into Franklin. The latter makes for a prettier map, so it is the latter I shall do I think.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

God must stop being a Republican at the Columbus city limits.

[dpmapper]

No Tiberi lives in Columbus. I know his address from a title company, and his bio says he lives in Columbus to boot so the home he owns, is the one in which he resides for voting purposes.

http://tiberi.house.gov/Biography/ says that he lives in Genoa Township, which is in southern Delaware Cty.

[freepcrusher]

how come no one has commented on my maps on page 13? It seems like I'm on everyone's ignore list. My maps on page 13 are probably the most logical because they are the most similar to the current maps and both parties would probably like the map too.

[Brittain33]

It's nothing personal. Most maps get no comments at all, especially the ones that are inoffensive.

[Torie]

how come no one has commented on my maps on page 13? It seems like I'm on everyone's ignore list. My maps on page 13 are probably the most logical because they are the most similar to the current maps and both parties would probably like the map too.

Make them prettier, and I will look at them. The dull tones of the maps I see (other than mine
of course ), are too painful for my eyes. But I will take a look at your map. But I am an arrogant SOB, and will probably be critical. Do you really want that?  

[Brittain33]

Someone at SSP submitted this 12-4-hope-Stivers-still-overperforms map, it's what I expect to see.

[Torie]

Horrible - just horrible!  Do you think the Ohio Pubbies are that dumb, or into masochism, or what, Brittain33?

[Brittain33]

Horrible - just horrible!  Do you think the Ohio Pubbies are that dumb, or into masochism, or what, Brittain33?

I can't believe you're complaining about a very clean-looking 12-4 (notionally 11-5) map in a state with only a mild Republican bias.

[krazen1211]

Horrible - just horrible!  Do you think the Ohio Pubbies are that dumb, or into masochism, or what, Brittain33?

No, I think that's just silly thinking from silly leftists.

Why on earth would they unsplit Lucas county when its already split, and really needs to be split further given how many pubbies are there West of Toledo? Especially while putting Oberlin in a GOP district...

Masochism, though, is your 4 way split of Columbus, Torie.

[Brittain33]

Why on earth would they unsplit Lucas county when its already split, and really needs to be split further given how many pubbies are there West of Toledo?

Eh, I'm not so detail-focused on things like that. It's the rough shape of the districts that matters.

[krazen1211]

Why on earth would they unsplit Lucas county when its already split, and really needs to be split further given how many pubbies are there West of Toledo?

Eh, I'm not so detail-focused on things like that. It's the rough shape of the districts that matters.

Well, its those details that make him create what I believe we have easily proven to be a completely unnecessary 4th district in Northern Ohio. He's drowning hundreds of thousands of Republican leaning areas in the Democratic districts.

He's splitting other counties anyway, compared to what I did (Medina for instance).

[Brittain33]

what I believe we have easily proven to be a completely unnecessary 4th district in Northern Ohio.

Suffice to say, there is still plenty of disagreement on this board about whether Ohio will be taking the map-drawing to the extent Torie has to accomplish his goals, and we aren't going to bridge that gap until the maps come out. That 4th district is "necessary" if you think Republicans will balk at the effort necessary to pack Dems into 3 districts and the consequent erosity of the map. (But seriously, I don't know.) 

I see the following Dem districts:

Toledo-Lorain
Cuyahoga
Cuyahoga-Akron
Akron-Youngstown

and a Columbus split. The 6th district made somewhat safer.

How the map-drawers do this specifically, or what county ends up in which Republican backbencher's district, is not important to me.

[Brittain33]

I mean, I'm really not trying to bait Torie or rehash debates that have run their course, but I think we can discuss alternative maps.