US House Redistricting: Ohio

[Torie]

And here are the stat and map adjustments if OH-12 is going to be an open seat.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Don't think it'll happen, but we shall see soon enough.

[Torie]

Don't think it'll happen, but we shall see soon enough.

You predict the GOP will toss a potential Pubbie CD in excess of a 5% GOP PVI into the trash can eh, along with a Pubbie incumbent if Tiberi does not retire, eh?  Yes, indeed, we shall see!


Moving right along, are you not in any event absolutely inspired that I made OH-12 into this absolutely handsome nearly square yellow box on the map?  I just love geometry - always have. I got the top grade in my high school geometry class. It came as naturally to me as toking really.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Don't think it'll happen, but we shall see soon enough.

You predict the GOP will toss a potential Pubbie CD in excess of a 5% GOP PVI into the trash can eh, along with a Pubbie incumbent if Tiberi does not retire, eh?  Yes, indeed, we shall see!


Moving right along, are you not in any event absolutely inspired that I made OH-12 into this absolutely handsome nearly square yellow box on the map?  I just love geometry - always have. I got the top grade in my high school geometry class. It came as naturally to me as toking really.

As I've said, the map is undeniably brilliant, a work of art even.  I just predict that Republicans will try to keep Austria, Tiberi, Jordan, and Stivers extremely happy (even at the expense of Johnson, Renacci, Schmidt, and to a lesser degree Gibbs).  This will, imo, lead them to produce a dummymander (especially with regard to the Franklin County tri-chop I'm expecting).  Lastly, yes, I guess I am simultaneously awe-inspired and horrified by your 12th (which under both this and the current map happens to be my native district)

[TJ in Oregon]

Ohio is finally finished. 

Hooray! This is amazing and exactly what I hope the Ohio Republicans do. Every incumbent Republican is safe.

My only concerns are that it might look too gerrymandered in the 9th district's snake into Cleveland and the Canton/Alliance leg of the Youngstown district. But since when has appearance really mattered? It's even pretty good from a communities of interest standpoint in case people care about that (at least in NE OH, Columbus not so much but it already is that way so it's nothing new).

But all in all, this is beautiful, absolutely beautiful!

[Torie]

Here is a more complete stat matrix chart, which includes comparisons with the prior CD's and the partisan trends. Obviously, the new CD's take in new territory, so the comparisons just give one a rough idea of who is doing what to whom, when. This particular Gerrymander moved a mere 35 points from the "wrong places" to the "right places."  Not bad!  

It is interesting that NW Ohio trended heavily to the Dems in 2008, which the rest of the state either trended to the GOP, or had no trend. Next door Indiana trended evenly more heavily to the Dems. It would be interesting to speculate why the partisan trend went one way on one side of the imaginary line taking in NW Ohio and Indiana, and parts of Illinois and so forth, and the other way on its other side.

[Sam Spade]

It is interesting that NW Ohio trended heavily to the Dems in 2008, which the rest of the state either trended to the GOP, or had no trend. Next door Indiana trended evenly more heavily to the Dems. It would be interesting to speculate why the partisan trend went one way on one side of the imaginary line taking in NW Ohio and Indiana, and parts of Illinois and so forth, and the other way on the other its other side.

I think there are a few Al posts on this subject, if not a few Sam Spade ones too.

[Torie]

It is interesting that NW Ohio trended heavily to the Dems in 2008, which the rest of the state either trended to the GOP, or had no trend. Next door Indiana trended evenly more heavily to the Dems. It would be interesting to speculate why the partisan trend went one way on one side of the imaginary line taking in NW Ohio and Indiana, and parts of Illinois and so forth, and the other way on the other its other side.

I think there are a few Al posts on this subject, if not a few Sam Spade ones too.

Splendid. What was Mr. Spade's opinion?  He's kind of an arrogant type, with an obscurantist streak, probably for tactical reasons, and thus no doubt well suited to be a lawyer, but sometimes his opinions amazing enough have some value. Yes, I know, Indiana is next door to Illinois' second most illustrious son in the view of some (I am not sure anyone puts Mr. Obama ahead of Lincoln yet, but give it time), but why would Obama love expand into NW Ohio, but nowhere else in Ohio (and outside Toledo in a zone that is heavily German to boot)?   I mean, it is not like it's in the same media market with any of the balance of the "love zone." In fact, Toledo, amazingly enough, has its own TV stations. Are those stations packed with talking heads who are at once Commies and persuasive or something? If so, I would like to meet this particular cohort of "reds!"  

By the way, I wonder what Mr. Spade thinks of my Ohio mappie. I take a special pleasure in how I just ignored my host of critics and skeptics, and just did it!  And I am particularly proud of my nice little geometrical shapes and color scheme.  I wonder if Mr. Spade appreciates the symmetry of the color scheme, the balance, the clarity, and the harmony of it all.  If he doesn't, he's a Philistine.

[TJ in Oregon]

My guess as to why NW Ohio swung so heavily toward Obama is that I recall the unemployment rate increasing much, much more in that part of the state when the economy crashed in 2008. The NW corner of the state has a lot of industrial towns (think Elkhart, Indiana) and I remember the unemployment rate being over 15% in a lot of areas. While there are other areas of the state more impoverished, the NW was better to begin with and the economic decline was more noticeable.

Though I am a college student in Cleveland, I am orginally from NW Ohio (Erie County actually). I'd describe most of the people there as economically liberal and socially conservative. As long as things are going well, they will vote based on social issues but when hit in the pocketbook, especially when the Republicans were in charge, fiscal concerns take over and they vote for the Democrats. I think a lot of people were (and still are) struggling to make ends meet and when Obama promised change they wanted to give him a chance. Now the question is whether or not they will think he deserves a second chance.

[Torie]

My guess as to why NW Ohio swung so heavily toward Obama is that I recall the unemployment rate increasing much, much more in that part of the state when the economy crashed in 2008. The NW corner of the state has a lot of industrial towns (think Elkhart, Indiana) and I remember the unemployment rate being over 15% in a lot of areas. While there are other areas of the state more impoverished, the NW was better to begin with and the economic decline was more noticeable.

Though I am a college student in Cleveland, I am orginally from NW Ohio (Erie County actually). I'd describe most of the people there as economically liberal and socially conservative. As long as things are going well, they will vote based on social issues but when hit in the pocketbook, especially when the Republicans were in charge, fiscal concerns take over and they vote for the Democrats. I think a lot of people were (and still are) struggling to make ends meet and when Obama promised change they wanted to give him a chance. Now the question is whether or not they will think he deserves a second chance.

That sounds like a most excellent analysis to me. I guess the codicil is that they are also less racist in NW Ohio than in the butternut belt (and yes fossil fuel free) so are a bit more willing to vote their pocket book as they see it (I suspect many regret their votes now). And thanks for the words about my map. It demonstrates that we have at least two aesthetes on this forum, and it is great to not be so entirely alone in that department.

[MattTX]

Torie, why do you bother with land contiguity for the 9th District? Why not just use Lake Erie water contiguity to collect Toledo, Cleveland, and any precincts you want to pick up in between?

If you did that, the connection between the two parts of the 16th District would not look so bad. In addition, you probably could also add a few "pubbie points," as you so amusingly call them, by removing any less Democratic connecting precincts that you are currently including in the 9th along the shore of Lake Erie.

[Torie]

Torie, why do you bother with land contiguity for the 9th District? Why not just use Lake Erie water contiguity to collect Toledo, Cleveland, and any precincts you want to pick up in between?

If you did that, the connection between the two parts of the 16th District would not look so bad. In addition, you probably could also add a few "pubbie points," as you so amusingly call them, by removing any less Democratic connecting precincts that you are currently including in the 9th along the shore of Lake Erie.

Water counts the same as land eh? OH-09 would just be like a series of ports along the lake, sort of like Kalingrad is to Russia. Yes, that might add about 1 pubbie point. Not too much is lost hooking up OH-09 East to OH-09 West via terra firma.

[MattTX]

Exactly. Unless there is a state law provision against using water contiguity, you can use it (at least no court that I know of has said that you can't). People might complain about using water contiguity just for partisan gerrymandering, but it doesn't look any worse than the way you currently have the 16th District.

[muon2]

Exactly. Unless there is a state law provision against using water contiguity, you can use it (at least no court that I know of has said that you can't). People might complain about using water contiguity just for partisan gerrymandering, but it doesn't look any worse than the way you currently have the 16th District.

I suspect there may be case law on that matter. The GOP had control in 2001 and didn't hop across Erie except to islands or over bridges.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

With partisan data, here's another stab at a 12-4 Republican map:



OH-01 (blue) - 51.3 Obama, 47.5 McCain. (Was 55-44 Obama)
OH-02 (green) - 56.7 McCain, 41.8 Obama. (Was 59-40 McCain)
OH-03 (purple) - 52.4 McCain, 46.2 Obama. (Was 51-47 McCain)
OH-04 (red) - 57.0 McCain, 41.0 Obama. (Was 60-38 McCain)
OH-05 (yellow) - 51.7 McCain, 46.6 Obama. (Was 53-45 McCain)
OH-06 (teal) - 51.1 McCain, 46.5 Obama. (OH-06 was 50-48 McCain, OH-18 was 52-46 McCain)
OH-07 (grey) - 49.4 Obama, 49.1 McCain. (Was 54-45 McCain)
OH-08 (light purple) - 61.6 McCain, 36.8 Obama. (Was 60-38 McCain)
OH-09 (sky blue) - 65.2 Obama, 33.1 McCain. (Was 62-36 Obama)
OH-10 (magenta) - 58.9 Obama, 39.6 McCain. (OH-10 was 59-39 Obama, OH-11 was 57-42 Obama)
OH-11 (light green Cleveland-Akron) - 83.2 Obama, 16.1 McCain, 51.4% black VAP. (Was 85-15 Obama)
OH-12 (light purple Columbus) - 50.5 Obama, 48.1 McCain. (Was 53-46 Obama)
OH-13 (pink) - 59.4 Obama, 38.4 McCain. (OH-17 was 62-36 Obama)
OH-14 (brown) - 49.2 Obama, 49.2 McCain (Obama by 16 votes!). (Was 49-49 McCain)
OH-15 (orange) - 50.7 Obama, 47.6 McCain. (Was 54-45 Obama)
OH-16 (light green) - 52.4 McCain, 45.9 Obama. (Was 50-48 McCain)

Sutton and Kucinich are drawn into the same district, as are Johnson and Ryan.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

For the heck of it, here's a Democratic gerrymander:



OH-01 (blue) - 59.2 Obama, 39.8 McCain (Was 55-44 Obama)
OH-02 (green) - 61.5 McCain, 36.7 Obama (Was 59-40 McCain)
OH-03 (purple) - 54.3 Obama, 44.1 McCain (Was 51-47 McCain)
OH-04 (red) - 63.0 McCain, 35.1 Obama (Was 60-38 McCain)
OH-05 (yellow) - 52.0 McCain, 46.2 Obama (Was 53-45 McCain)
OH-06 (teal) - 50.3 Obama, 47.4 McCain (Was 50-48 McCain)
OH-07 (grey) - 60.7 McCain, 37.3 Obama (Was 54-45 McCain)
OH-08 (light purple) - 67.1 McCain, 31.8 Obama (Was 60-38 McCain)
OH-09 (sky blue) - 59.8 Obama, 38.5 McCain (Was 62-36 Obama)
OH-10 (light green Cuyahoga/Lorain) - 57.6 Obama, 41.0 McCain (Was 59-39 Obama)
OH-11 (magenta) - 83.5 Obama, 15.7 McCain, 50.9% black VAP (Was 85-14 Obama)
OH-12 (light purple Columbus) - 52.5 Obama, 45.8 McCain (Was 53-46 Obama)
OH-13 (pink) - 57.7 Obama, 40.7 McCain (Was 57-42 Obama)
OH-14 (brown) - 58.5 Obama, 39.5 McCain (OH-14 was 49-49 McCain, OH-17 was 62-36 Obama)
OH-15 (orange) - 61.1 Obama, 37.5 McCain (Was 54-45 Obama)
OH-16 (light green) - 56.2 McCain, 41.7 Obama (Was 50-48 McCain)

I would expect OH-01, 09, 10, 11, 13, 14, and 15 to be safe Dem, OH-06 and 12 to be swing districts, and OH-02, 04, 05, 07, 08, and 16 to be safe Republican. So, 8-6-2. Maybe 8-5-3 if you think OH-05 would be a swing district.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

For the heck of it, here's a Democratic gerrymander:



OH-01 (blue) - 59.2 Obama, 39.8 McCain (Was 55-44 Obama)
OH-02 (green) - 61.5 McCain, 36.7 Obama (Was 59-40 McCain)
OH-03 (purple) - 54.3 Obama, 44.1 McCain (Was 51-47 McCain)
OH-04 (red) - 63.0 McCain, 35.1 Obama (Was 60-38 McCain)
OH-05 (yellow) - 52.0 McCain, 46.2 Obama (Was 53-45 McCain)
OH-06 (teal) - 50.3 Obama, 47.4 McCain (Was 50-48 McCain)
OH-07 (grey) - 60.7 McCain, 37.3 Obama (Was 54-45 McCain)
OH-08 (light purple) - 67.1 McCain, 31.8 Obama (Was 60-38 McCain)
OH-09 (sky blue) - 59.8 Obama, 38.5 McCain (Was 62-36 Obama)
OH-10 (light green Cuyahoga/Lorain) - 57.6 Obama, 41.0 McCain (Was 59-39 Obama)
OH-11 (magenta) - 83.5 Obama, 15.7 McCain, 50.9% black VAP (Was 85-14 Obama)
OH-12 (light purple Columbus) - 52.5 Obama, 45.8 McCain (Was 53-46 Obama)
OH-13 (pink) - 57.7 Obama, 40.7 McCain (Was 57-42 Obama)
OH-14 (brown) - 58.5 Obama, 39.5 McCain (OH-14 was 49-49 McCain, OH-17 was 62-36 Obama)
OH-15 (orange) - 61.1 Obama, 37.5 McCain (Was 54-45 Obama)
OH-16 (light green) - 56.2 McCain, 41.7 Obama (Was 50-48 McCain)

I would expect OH-01, 09, 10, 11, 13, 14, and 15 to be safe Dem, OH-06 and 12 to be swing districts, and OH-02, 04, 05, 07, 08, and 16 to be safe Republican. So, 8-6-2. Maybe 8-5-3 if you think OH-05 would be a swing district.

Surely OH-09 can be unpacked a bit to improve Democratic chances in OH-05.



OH-05: 49.6% Obama, 48.7% McCain
OH-09: 55.4% Obama, 42.9% McCain

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I don't think it would be worth making OH-09 vulnerable in exchange for maybe winning OH-05.

[Brittain33]

OH-5 is one of those places where Obama overperformed and a generic Democrat would do worse. The opposite of OH-6, in fact.

[Torie]

OH-5 is one of those places where Obama overperformed and a generic Democrat would do worse. The opposite of OH-6, in fact.

We worked this little issue to death didn't we, my friend? LOL. Pity I have not had time to push my little mappie. I have been absorbed with agriculture of late - very absorbed. And I have learned so much!  And therein lies a tale.

[freepcrusher]

don't waste your time trying to pick up the 5th district. Its been held by a republican since the end of the great depression. Instead, why not try making it even more republican. My proposed 5th district is a 58.8% McCain district.

[TJ in Oregon]

I decided to draw my own 13-3 map of Ohio. I kept Kaptur out of Cuyahoga County because drawing her in might be too much. Renacci’s district can probably be cleaned up a little more on its western side without changing much. The eastern edge is a battle between going off of presidential results and going off of what would hurt Kucinich more because that area on the far west edge of Cleveland has about 8 or 9 precincts under 60% Obama but is also the neighborhood Kucinich grew up in. Lakewood is a wealthier Democratic area that supported Obama with closer to 70% but Kucinich did very poor.

The Ohio Republicans really need a solid candidate from SE Ohio because one of the main questions when drawing this is what to do with that part of the state so you don’t have any Dayton-to-Youngstown (or similar) messes. I thought the best thing to do was to give as much of that territory as possible to Jean Schmidt and completely take her out of Hamilton County. As a result, Boehner comes in for a share of the Cincy crack and he’s only at R+10. I hope that’s safe enough because doing this cleans up a lot of other stuff.

1.   Dark Green (Chabot R-Cincinnati): McCain 51.7- Obama 47.2 R+6
2.   Gold (Schmidt R-Loveland): McCain 53.8- Obama 44.0 R+9
3.   Slate Green (Turner R-Dayton): McCain 50.1- Obama 48.4 R+4
4.   Purple (Jordan R-Urbana): McCain 53.1-Obama 45.1 R+8
5.   Red (Latta R-Bowling Green): McCain 52.1-Obama 45.9 R+7
6.   Dark Teal (Johnson R-Poland, also Sutton D-Copley): McCain 50.6-Obama 47.6 R+5
7.   Gray (Austria R-Beavercreek): McCain 51.4-Obama 47.1 R+6
8.   Cornflower Blue (Boehner R-West Chester): McCain 55.8-Obama 43.0 R+10
9.   Cyan (Kaptur D-Toledo): Obama 64.5-McCain 33.9 D+12 
10.   Lime Green (Renacci R-Wadsworth, also Kucinich D-Cleveland): Obama 50.1-McCain 48.6 R+3
11.   Yellow (Fudge D-Warrensville Heights): Obama 85.1-McCain 14.1 D+32
12.   Brown (Tiberi R-Galena): McCain 50.0-Obama 48.5 R+4
13.   Black (Gibbs R-Lakeland): McCain 52.6-Obama 45.0 R+7
14.   Tan (LaTourette R-Bainbridge Township): Obama 49.5-McCain 49.0 R+3
15.   Orange (Stivers R-Columbus): McCain 51.3-Obama 47.1 R+6
16.   Navy Blue (Ryan D-Niles): Obama 65.4-McCain 32.4 D+13

I am also considering trying to draw one that packs Columbus and cracks Toledo.

[Sbane]

I am also considering trying to draw one that packs Columbus and cracks Toledo.

Hmm...that might actually make more sense than cracking Columbus if you look at the trends. I just don't know whether there is enough population there. You would probably need to crack a bunch of democratic cities along the lake as well as parts of Cuyahoga I am guessing. But since the district needs to last ten years, it might be the safer option.

[TJ in Oregon]

Here’s my Toledo crack. It came out pretty nice with the exception of Steve Austria’s district which looks awful. It’s hard to cover the NW with a district less considering you need at least two of the four-way Columbus split and none are really near Toledo. By packing Columbus, Tiberi can now crack Canton and make Johnson safer. I am a little concerned about Gibbs too since I had to use him for the cracking of Lorain County. I decided to take the liberty of connecting the Columbus pack to Springfield, Yellow Springs, and Urbana even though Austria should be safe without it. I have to give him something for dealing with this mess.

1.   Dark Green (Chabot R-Cincinnati): McCain 51.7- Obama 47.2 R+6
2.   Gold (Schmidt R-Loveland): McCain 53.7- Obama 44.1 R+8
3.   Slate Green (Turner R-Dayton): McCain 50.1- Obama 48.4 R+4
4.   Purple (Jordan R-Urbana, also Kaptur D-Toledo (maybe in District 5)): McCain 52.7-Obama 45.5 R+7
5.   Red (Latta R-Bowling Green): McCain 50.2-Obama 48.0  R+5
6.   Dark Teal (Johnson R-Poland): McCain 51.1-Obama 46.9  R+6
7.   Gray (Austria R-Beavercreek): McCain 55.4-Obama 42.8 R+10
8.   Cornflower Blue (Boehner R-West Chester): McCain 55.8-Obama 43.0 R+10
9.   Cyan (Open D): Obama 71.1-McCain 27.3 D+18 
10.   Lime Green (Renacci R-Wadsworth, also Kucinich D-Cleveland): Obama 50.1-McCain 48.6 R+3
11.   Yellow (Fudge D-Warrensville Heights): Obama 85.1-McCain 14.1 D+32
12.   Brown (Tiberi R-Galena): McCain 51.6-Obama 46.4  R+6
13.   Black (Gibbs R-Lakeland): McCain 49.6-Obama 48.4  R+4
14.   Tan (LaTourette R-Bainbridge Township): Obama 49.5-McCain 49.0 R+3
15.   Orange (Stivers R-Columbus): McCain 55.0-Obama 45.0 R+9
16.   Navy Blue (Ryan D-Niles, also Sutton D-Copley): Obama 63.9-McCain 34.2 D+11

[Padfoot]

Given the maps I've seen so far I think the Republicans would be foolish to try a 13-3 map.  Its too risky IMO.  I think they could be fairly safe with a 12-4 map that eliminates Kucinich and I think they could build 11 completely safe seats if they did a Columbus Dem pack.