US House Redistricting: Ohio

[BigSkyBob]

http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2011/12/democrat-led_petition_drive_on.html

Redfern said Democrats have collected about 135,000 signatures right now in roughly five weeks of signature-gathering by 1,000 volunteers, but declined to handicap the chances that his volunteer army can harvest 231,150 valid signatures by a Christmas Day deadline. "You work real hard and you stand out in front of libraries, and you talk to people and you gather signatures," Redfern said. "This is an extraordinarily challenging effort, but one that needs to be taken on."


Generally, successful ballot drives need to gather at least 400,000 signatures to get enough valid signatures to qualify an issue for the ballot. That would put Democrats about one-third of the way to the number of signatures needed with less than three weeks left--although state elections law would allow them at least several weeks extra time if they can muster the minimum needed by the Christmas Day deadline.



Yeah, the map is a go.

First of all, the article is wrong. They have until Christmas to collect 231,150 signatures. They don't have to be valid, and they don't have to be real, and they don't have to have any correlation between any person living or dead. When those signatures are thrown out, and, who wouldn't challenge "Micheal E. Mouse," they will have a couple of more months to collect enough signatures from the registered living as a reward for gaming the system.

Second, the article is a giant fundraising appeal for the Democratic party of Ohio. I'm sure there are enough redistricting nerds in the Democratic party willing to pony up a few bucks that the professional signature gatherers will be out in force next week.

Third, if the referendum actually fails for lack of signatures, I would be embarrassed to be a member of the Democratic party.

[BigSkyBob]

As predicted:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/12/13/1044925/-OH-redistricting-fund-drive:-House-in-the-balance?via=sidebytagfeed

[TJ in Oregon]

Nah, the Democrats main problem here is that no one knows or cares what the map looks like. Other than being on the cover of the Plain Dealer for a whopping one day, it has had very little news exposure. Even some of the most informed Ohioans I know just haven't been paying attention. The blogosphere is not representative of real life. It's a political bubble with vastly different views. Most people just don't care what it looks like and won't bother to find out.

[BigSkyBob]

http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2011/12/14/dems-gop-decide-on-single-march-primary-in-2012.html

Deal cut for GOP map to be enforced for the next decade in exchange for small changes.

[minionofmidas]

Or at least, looking likely.

[muon2]

Or at least, looking likely.

Sources tell me it passed this evening.

[krazen1211]

Keary McCarthy, chief of staff for House Minority Leader Armond Budish, D-Beachwood, said the map is “virtually” the same one that Democrats refused to support in early November.

[jimrtex]

Keary McCarthy, chief of staff for House Minority Leader Armond Budish, D-Beachwood, said the map is “virtually” the same one that Democrats refused to support in early November.

HB 369

[TJ in Oregon]

Keary McCarthy, chief of staff for House Minority Leader Armond Budish, D-Beachwood, said the map is “virtually” the same one that Democrats refused to support in early November.

HB 369

It's a little less erose I guess. The Democrats must see the writing on the wall that they can't get enough signatures to agree to that.

[jimrtex]

Or at least, looking likely.

Sources tell me it passed this evening.

The senate has just taken up the bill.  27:6 on 2nd.  27:6 on 3rd.  29:4 to keep emergency clause.   A very bitter denunciation by Sen. Nina Turner (D-Cleveland)

[jimrtex]

Or at least, looking likely.

Sources tell me it passed this evening.

The senate has just taken up the bill.  27:6 on 2nd.  27:6 on 3rd.  29:4 to keep emergency clause.   A very bitter denunciation by Sen. Nina Turner (D-Cleveland)

And by Charleta Tavares (D-Columbus)

[JohnnyLongtorso]

So basically they just made OH-15 look less ludicrous and makes OH-10 (edit: the former OH-03) more compact and slightly better for the Dems (looks like it's pretty much 50/50 Obama-McCain).

[jimrtex]

Or at least, looking likely.

Sources tell me it passed this evening.

The senate has just taken up the bill.  27:6 on 2nd.  27:6 on 3rd.  29:4 to keep emergency clause.   A very bitter denunciation by Sen. Nina Turner (D-Cleveland)

And by Charleta Tavares (D-Columbus)

Passes as an emergency measure 27-6. 

Sets a filing deadline for congressional, presidential, and delegate candidates of December 30.  All other filing was over December 7.

[BigSkyBob]

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I don't think I have ever seen such political incompetence on the part of the Democrats. All they had to do is throw a monkey wrench into the process by spending a million to find partisan Democrats willing to sign a petition in the partisan interest of Democrats. They could have gained a seat, or two, for a decade. Instead, they'll blow the money on a district in Oregon they would have won anyway later in the decade in the worst case! Pathetic.

[BigSkyBob]

The new map:

[muon2]

Here's the interactive version.

Districts 1, 3, 9, and 10 had their BVAPs increased compared to the first map passed. OH-10 moves just barely to lean R from solid R. That makes 9 solid R, 3 lean R (6, 10, 14), and 4 solid D. County splits are reduced and OH-15 becomes a reasonable shape.

[Brittain33]

16 is solid R?

[muon2]

16 is solid R?

It's 56.6-43.4% on the 2008+2010 metric used in the competition.

However, I will note that my link above is to the Nov version of the plan. From the map BSB posted there appears to be only minimal changes. I'll put up a link to the passed version when it is available.

Edit: According to the Columbus Dispatch, the map at my link is identical to the passed version except for about 800 people shifted in Franklin county. The shift was to accommodate Ted Celeste and put his home in the new Dem OH-03.

[Torie]

Here's the interactive version.

Districts 1, 3, 9, and 10 had their BVAPs increased compared to the first map passed. OH-10 moves just barely to lean R from solid R. That makes 9 solid R, 3 lean R (6, 10, 14), and 4 solid D. County splits are reduced and OH-15 becomes a reasonable shape.

The numbers for OH-10 moved from what to what?  

Well, one advantage of getting rid of those obnoxious county splits is that the maps are a lot easier to draw!  PA-10 has a 3.6% GOP PVI (that was easy to calculate too when the Obama-McCain numbers are almost even (you just add 3.7% to 0, and subtract the Obama 10 basis point lead)). So strong lean GOP (a "yellow" CD within kissing distance of going "orange" (weak safe). Not bad at all. Turner will have no problems there at all. Heck, Meehan in PA-07 would kill for that kind of a PVI.

[muon2]

16 is solid R?

It's 56.6-43.4% on the 2008+2010 metric used in the competition.

However, I will note that my link above is to the Nov version of the plan. From the map BSB posted there appears to be only minimal changes. I'll put up a link to the passed version when it is available.

Edit: According to the Columbus Dispatch, the map at my link is identical to the passed version except for about 800 people shifted in Franklin county. The shift was to accommodate Ted Celeste and put his home in the new Dem OH-03.

Here's the interactive version as passed. If you click on "SET MAP LAYERS" and then choose "HB 369 as introduced 11-3-11" from the "choose a legislative district ..." button (it's near the end of the list) you can see the changes for Celeste.

[Padfoot]

Well I suppose this map is marginally better than the original but it's still pretty bad.  Hopefully the task force to study redistricting reform that got created along with the map does something positive but I'm not hopeful.

Also I'm mad because I got moved from OH-3 to OH-15.  I think the thing that makes me maddest about it is that I'd rather not be lumped in with the hicks-who-hate-school-levies in southwest Franklin County.  Those idiots have really screwed up the school district down there.

It will be interesting to see where the Democratic candidates in this district hail from; Athens vs. Columbus being the obvious factions.

[minionofmidas]

Neither 10 nor 14 is remotely competitive as long as the current incumbent is scandalfree and not going anywhere.

[muon2]

Neither 10 nor 14 is remotely competitive as long as the current incumbent is scandalfree and not going anywhere.

That's why they were drawn that way. The Dems wanted more competitive districts, but the GOP wasn't going to budge on that. They would agree to changes that made blacks more competitive in the primaries, but even then they wouldn't go so far as to reduce the GOP numbers very much.

[Torie]

Neither 10 nor 14 is remotely competitive as long as the current incumbent is scandalfree and not going anywhere.

That's why they were drawn that way. The Dems wanted more competitive districts, but the GOP wasn't going to budge on that. They would agree to changes that made blacks more competitive in the primaries, but even then they wouldn't go so far as to reduce the GOP numbers very much.

It appears that the map was extremely skillfully drawn, for a host or reasons, including having Stivers (OH-15) take Athens, since he presumably runs reasonably well among the academic community.  However, the Columbus CD (OH-03) is short 6,000 folks, and this time, the CD's surrounding it, have spot on numbers, so this is going to be a really puzzler. Mapping Columbus is a real horror show of course, given how screwed up the precincts are.  It is kind of interesting that OH-04's primary task was taking out heavily Dem Elyria and Oberlin. Who would have thunk it?  Kaptur only has 45% of the population of her old CD, with 55% mostly Kucinich country (I think, I haven't drawn the Cleveland area yet), also clever. That Dem primary should be a barn burner. I suspect the Pubs enjoy keep Kuch around.

The one possible real trouble spot is that Gibbs in OH-07 (who hangs out in a rural portion of hyper GOP Holmes County), which takes both Canton and Massilon. I suspect he won't run well there relatively speaking, and a Canton based Dem who is reasonably moderate might give him trouble. The Pubs should have a Canton based candidate themselves really. Such is life.

I assume OH-16 is reasonably safe, but I have not drawn it yet.

[muon2]

Neither 10 nor 14 is remotely competitive as long as the current incumbent is scandalfree and not going anywhere.

That's why they were drawn that way. The Dems wanted more competitive districts, but the GOP wasn't going to budge on that. They would agree to changes that made blacks more competitive in the primaries, but even then they wouldn't go so far as to reduce the GOP numbers very much.

It appears that the map was extremely skillfully drawn, for a host or reasons, including having Stivers (OH-15) take Athens, since he presumably runs reasonably well among the academic community.  However, the Columbus CD (OH-03) is short 6,000 folks, and this time, the CD's surrounding it, have spot on numbers, so this is going to be a really puzzler. Mapping Columbus is a real horror show of course, given how screwed up the precincts are.  It is kind of interesting that OH-04's primary task was taking out heavily Dem Elyria and Oberlin. Who would have thunk it?  Kaptur only has 45% of the population of her old CD, with 55% mostly Kucinich country (I think, I haven't drawn the Cleveland area yet), also clever. That Dem primary should be a barn burner. I suspect the Pubs enjoy keep Kuch around.

The one possible real trouble spot is that Gibbs in OH-07 (who hangs out in a rural portion of hyper GOP Holmes County), which takes both Canton and Massilon. I suspect he won't run well there relatively speaking, and a Canton based Dem who is reasonably moderate might give him trouble. The Pubs should have a Canton based candidate themselves really. Such is life.

I assume OH-16 is reasonably safe, but I have not drawn it yet.

Did you check out the link I posted? It has the correct map and both demographic and political numbers for each district.