US House Redistricting: Ohio

[Torie]

Oh, yes, OH-06 has heavily GOP suburban Canton, and somewhat less heavily GOP south suburban Akron, and that has been "traditionally Pubbie" since about 1856.

I don't understand, then. If it's so heavily Pubbie, why is it when combined with traditionally Democratic Appalachian areas that swung to McCain in '08, it's only at 51% McCain?

Because almost everything else in OH-06 is marginal in PVI terms (mostly the tonier suburban areas of Youngstown and Warren (well as tony as it gets for that metro zone, which ain't much), except for Columbia County, or leans Dem PVI, such as Jefferson and Monroe Counties, or is heavily Dem, to wit Belmont County.  

Ok, and if these areas swung Republican in 2008 in common with other Appalachian-steel areas, what are the implications for the viability of a 13-3 map based on this district's PVI being above your benchmark?

Well your premise is wrong. They did not swing "Republican in 2008."  Johnson is the next best thing to totally safe, and his home base is in suburban Youngstown, and now he does not have to drive so far to visit the perimeters of his CD. Mr. Johnson is going to be delirious with joy with his CD. I am sure he will add me to his Christmas card list.

[Brittain33]

Well your premise is wrong.

Well, then notify Dave Leip his atlas is wrong for showing the four counties from Columbiana south swinging blue from 2004 to 2008, and trending deep blue. That's my source. You must be misinterpreting "swinging" as "voting." The Indy suburbs swung heavily Democratic in 2008, but they didn't vote for Obama, and since you're assessing districts on winning percentage rather than a binary win/loss, the distinction matters.

[Torie]

Well your premise is wrong.

Well, then notify Dave Leip his atlas is wrong for showing the four counties from Columbiana south swinging blue from 2004 to 2008, and trending deep blue. That's my source.

Haha.  Yes I see that now. But you know what that is mostly? No, it isn't the tonier burbs of that rust belt dump trending GOP I bet. Rather, it is the rapid collapse of population in the low SES zones of that place (all in OH-13 of course) which is generating the trend. I just bet you.

[Brittain33]

Well your premise is wrong.

Well, then notify Dave Leip his atlas is wrong for showing the four counties from Columbiana south swinging blue from 2004 to 2008, and trending deep blue. That's my source.

Haha.  Yes I see that now. But you know what that is mostly? No, it isn't the tonier burbs of that rust belt dump trending GOP I bet.

I didn't think it was. It was working class white Democratic voters declining to support Obama for President. Whether this constitutes a Republican trend across the board that Pubbie congressmen can count on or a one-off blip that applies to races with an African-American (or otherwise "other") nominee, well, I'm not hiding my cards on how I feel.

[krazen1211]

You're right about Johnson getting areas around Canton, of course. Forgot to take that into account. (And for the last time: Betty Sutton takes the female third person personal pronoun. )
It does make me wonder, but this is really for after your map is finished: What's the safest map that R's can draw themselves, chopping Columbus but throwing one of their northern congresscritters under the bus and eliminating only one of Sutton and Kucinich (I presume that would end up drawing them into a single district together)? As I said, for afterwards. Please finish this. I ask mostly because it does seem quite possible that the three northern D's plan would be rejected as too dangerous, if this is the best you can do.
(The Columbus chop is a necessary condition to any 4 northern Ds map, obviously - the GOP is not going to voluntarily give up both abolished seats.)

Under any strong 4 district plan, the 4th district has to go in Columbus, which is both more Democratic and faster growing than any 4th district in the North would be.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Oh, yes, OH-06 has heavily GOP suburban Canton, and somewhat less heavily GOP south suburban Akron, and that has been "traditionally Pubbie" since about 1856.

I don't understand, then. If it's so heavily Pubbie, why is it when combined with traditionally Democratic Appalachian areas that swung to McCain in '08, it's only at 51% McCain?

Because almost everything else in OH-06 is marginal in PVI terms (mostly the tonier suburban areas of Youngstown and Warren (well as tony as it gets for that metro zone, which ain't much), except for Columbia County, or leans Dem PVI, such as Jefferson and Monroe Counties, or is heavily Dem, to wit Belmont County.  

Ok, and if these areas swung Republican in 2008 in common with other Appalachian-steel areas, what are the implications for the viability of a 13-3 map based on this district's PVI being above your benchmark?

I'm going to be direct, because I want to discuss it. I find what you're doing to be amazing as a thought experiment to pack Dems in the smallest number of districts and redistribute the remaining territory along a somewhat arbitrary line of "safety." I think the maps are beautiful illustrations of what can be done with data. But no real map is going to go to this extent, no matter how seriously people take Republican leadership, no matter how many arms Boehner twists.

It's not that I'm biased as a Dem or that I lack balls or whatever, or I fail to appreciate why this year is different and why Republicans simply must do it. This is just not the map that people draw. I don't see anything in Pennsylvania or even Maryland that looks as attenuated and erose as the lines here, doing multiple one-precinct isthmuses to link groups of white voters and splitting municipalities in many places. I also don't see Republican legislators giving up coherent blocks of geography to represent amorphous districts designed with PVI in mind first. I think too many legislators share the common revulsion with extreme gerrymandering that strikes on sight that most of us have outgrown. Most of all, I don't think Republicans are going to draw themselves districts that are as close to the margins as OH-10 and OH-6 in your map, no matter what argument you can present, because they don't want to be at risk in good years or in bad years, and a bad year would wipe out your Republican delegation like Hamlet's family in Act V.

I believe you are coming up with the solution that needs to be done to create a hypothetical "13-3" map. And that is why I believe there will be no 13-3 map in Ohio.

I agree completely with this part, and I'd like to hear Torie's response to this as it could easily be the death of this map were proposed, imo.

[Bacon King]

But no real map is going to go to this extent

GA map, pre-2006. Dems pulled a gerrymander just like Torie's suggesting for Ohio.

example, Democratic district:

[Torie]

Well your premise is wrong.

Well, then notify Dave Leip his atlas is wrong for showing the four counties from Columbiana south swinging blue from 2004 to 2008, and trending deep blue. That's my source.

Haha.  Yes I see that now. But you know what that is mostly? No, it isn't the tonier burbs of that rust belt dump trending GOP I bet.

I didn't think it was. It was working class white Democratic voters declining to support Obama for President. Whether this constitutes a Republican trend across the board that Pubbie congressmen can count on or a one-off blip that applies to races with an African-American (or otherwise "other") nominee, well, I'm not hiding my cards on how I feel.

There are not many white working class Dems in OH-06. It is a quite a white middle class district.

[Torie]

Well your premise is wrong.

Well, then notify Dave Leip his atlas is wrong for showing the four counties from Columbiana south swinging blue from 2004 to 2008, and trending deep blue. That's my source.

Haha.  Yes I see that now. But you know what that is mostly? No, it isn't the tonier burbs of that rust belt dump trending GOP I bet.

I didn't think it was. It was working class white Democratic voters declining to support Obama for President. Whether this constitutes a Republican trend across the board that Pubbie congressmen can count on or a one-off blip that applies to races with an African-American (or otherwise "other") nominee, well, I'm not hiding my cards on how I feel.

OH-06 cannot easily be made more Pubbie anyway (perhaps a half of point), so the issue is moot anyway.  In any event, the old Canton CD trended one point less Dem than the nation, and the Youngstown CD and the Ohio River CD trended 5 points less than the nation. It would be interesting to look at the numbers in Canfield, which is where the bourgeoisie lives in the Youngstown area. I suspect the GOP trend was far less there, and my new OH-06 is more like Canfield, and a lot less like the old OH-06 and OH-17, which trended 5 points to the GOP. In short, my new OH-06 has an entirely new and far more upscale demographic profile.  OH-18, now in general my OH-10, also trended but one point to the GOP, so I don't think that is in play much either vis a vis this issue.

[Brittain33]

There are not many white working class Dems in OH-06. It is a quite a white middle class district.

What do you make of the median household and family incomes in Columbiana, Jefferson, and Belmont County, home to 250,000 people in your OH-6 (not counting that last county on the end, which is a non-entity and has no people), compared to those of middle-class counties like Delaware and Geauga Counties?

It's low. Similar to that in counties to the southwest and west, far from Columbus. This is Appalachia. Very, very white, certainly. I had a friend from college who grew up in Columbiana County, it was a very difficult place to be if you were interested in books or anything resembling upward mobility. His father had worked in a steel mill, lost his job, and then went back to work in a different kind of steel mill making significantly less money.

I grant that you clearly know more about the other ~65% of the district than I do; perhaps the Youngstown and Canton suburbs are enough to make this a safe Republican district at 51% McCain. I think this gets into what one would consider safe here. I accept what you say about how it can't be made any safer, not with everything else that's being done--but this is why Ohio is unlikely to try to squeeze down to 3 Dem districts.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A safe seat is a seat that can be won comfortably in a bad year for the party in question; any other definition is stretching the language beyond meaningful use, I think.

[TJ in Oregon]

Betty Sutton lives in Copley Township on Royal Rock Road (in Copley Township Precint O on Dave's App), just west of Akron and just SE of where route 77 and route 21 meet. She is currently in the green district but moving her to the yellow one would only require moving a couple precincts. I'm not sure who would win a primary between her and Ryan now that the yellow district will be more an Akron/Canton district than a Youngstown one. I would doubt she'd like the green district very much because it has neither Akron nor Lorain in it but she could always move there if she thinks she can't beat Ryan in a primary. The Alliance/Canton arm of the yellow district would also have the added bonus of putting former Democratic Rep. John Boccieri in it as well. Kucinich would have the choose between the Toledo district and the green one, which means he's probably done either way since I highly doubt he'd beat Kaptur in a primary. Kucinich is the weakest incumbent Democrat in Ohio. He only got 53% of the vote in 2010 in his old district and I'd bet there are plenty of Cuyahoga County Democrats who'd rather have Kaptur.

[Torie]

First, welcome to the forum TJ, and thank you that one of your first posts is one that is so helpful to me! 

I found out that Sutton lived in Copley, but thanks for saving me the work of going through channels to get her address. Anyway, the deed is now done, and OH-16 shed two precincts in Copley, with a total McCain percentage of about 47%, and picked up two more 60% McCain precincts in Wayne, so that OH-16 got 4 basis points more McCain, up to 4.96% (and a tad more erose sadly; I hate when that happens). OH-06 picked up two 47% McCain precincts from OH-13 (tough to find, but for that area I have precinct data spreadsheets, with the McCain percentages in rank order, so that nothing is missed). The stats and map of the excising of Sutton from OH-16 are below.

One other comment about this stuff about shaving down the Dems to 3 CD's is so risky and all, mentioned by some. Yes, if trends go south for the GOP, and whatnot, it is possible that one of my 6% plus GOP PVI Columbus CD's might fall, but other than that, adding a 4th CD accomplishes nothing else really (to the extent it is even possible, which it isn't really (see below).  The balance of the CD's outside NE Ohio are safe anyway, and the modes of adjustment are narrow down there anyway, since Boehner lives in the far SE corner of his CD in Butler County, just across the Hamilton County line, and as for OH-06 and OH-16 they can't be made much more GOP anyway, even if you create another Dem CD in the NE.

That is because the Dem pack was/is so effective. Except for some critical link precincts, and a handful of say plus 2 to 5 PVI point Dem precincts at the edge of the Dem pack in a few places, what you have are oceans of marginal precincts and stuff along the lines of plus 3 to 6 GOP PVI precincts, with a few scattered more heavily GOP precincts, particularly around Canton, e.g., North Canton. Beyond the link precincts, and the trapped GOP zone in Lorain, the few odd 56% to 58% Obama precincts in Cuyahoga that are in OH-16 are largely "trapped" by solid GOP territory. OH-14 is trapped by the Dem pack CD's and that cannot change. So ceding some of that territory to a Dem is almost impossible, and at "best" you might create a somewhat marginal CD as against another CD that is maybe a 1.5 points higher for the GOP - max. Plus the map will get butt ugly. It just isn't happening - period.

What might happen, is that the Pubbies might leave a couple of points on the table, to make the Dem pack CD's look a tad less shall we say "aggressive." That is their choice if they wish - dumb, but I can't stop them. That is about the only thing in play. I say that because the Columbus chop is not in play either. That chop is going to happen. With 6 plus GOP chop CD's post absorbing their share of the Pubbie death zone,  the GOP just isn't going to send one of their team to the showers. The thought of that happening is almost ludicrous really.

You need to micro manage these maps, to really understand what you are doing. They are no shortcuts - there just aren't. Not in my experience.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

A safe seat is a seat that can be won comfortably in a bad year for the party in question; any other definition is stretching the language beyond meaningful use, I think.

That may be a bit of a strong requirement. Back in 2002, would there have been any reason to call ID-01 or even NY-29 anything but safe Republican? And yet they both went Democratic in 2008.

[Brittain33]

the GOP just isn't going to send one of their team to the showers. The thought of that happening is almost ludicrous really.

Ok. I hold my assumption that they're going to aim for dropping 1D, 1R, where the R won't be Stivers because they like him too much, and they try to minimize Dem chances in Columbus. Perhaps it's a ludicrous assumption on my part. We'll have to see if anything other than a 13-3 map is passed by the legislature.

[Torie]

the GOP just isn't going to send one of their team to the showers. The thought of that happening is almost ludicrous really.

Ok. I hold my assumption that they're going to aim for dropping 1D, 1R, where the R won't be Stivers because they like him too much, and they try to minimize Dem chances in Columbus. Perhaps it's a ludicrous assumption on my part. We'll have to see if anything other than a 13-3 map is passed by the legislature.

You are kind of a stubborn chap aren't you?   And I guess you don't believe Muon2's intelligence. In any event, I took your trend thing to heart a bit, and am excising from OH-06 Belmont and Monroe Counties, and am giving OH-06 a slug of Wayne County in return. OH-06 is also picking up the rest of marginal Carroll County, which is also being excised from OH-10. OH-10 is getting a slug of Wayne too, so Wayne becomes a tri-chop County, and it is dipping down again to pick up heavily GOP Gallia County.  OH-2 is going to be kicked out of Warren County, and OH-03 will take some more of it, and OH-01 will get a couple of towns in it, along with some GOP suburbs in west Hamilton County. OH-02 is going all the way to Lawrence County, and picking off some GOP but somewhat marginal territory south of Columbus.  Oh, and I have finished OH-05 which becomes a rather elongated adventure.

I hope to have a new map and stats up today with the changes, although OH-02 is not completed yet, and that will have to await another day. I have only done on a separate map a rough draft of the Cincinnati area. I think Boehner's contribution to the cause will be to pick up Clark County, and about 6 pretty heavily black precincts in Hamilton, right next to the town in which he resides in Butler, so he can revisit his rather impecunious youth, while staying in his CD as it were.  Uber GOP Mercer County and Van Wert counties are being saved for the quad-chop CD's along with uber GOP Ashland and less uber but still +12 GOP PVI Crawford, Knox and Wyandot Counties.  Isn't this fun?

[Brittain33]

You are kind of a stubborn chap aren't you?  

It seems like we both are.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I believe it, but I also don't think it means that they're going to draw a 13-3 map. He said, IIRC, that they are looking to draw a Toledo-Cleveland district. Stipulated. They may do so--or it may be one person's idea--or they think it's a good starting point, and they'll try it, and see what comes out. And who is "they"? Legislative leadership? If so, can we assume that they have total control over the map and do decide what comes out, and that other Republicans won't be able to exercise some say? I doubt that it's going to be handed down from on high, but I don't know, but Muon2 didn't say it would be handed down from his source to the legislature as a whole for a vote. I too easily see a scenario where they ask their aides and mapmakers to try to draw a map with a Toledo-Cleveland district and a putative 13-3, and reject the result.

So I do believe he is telling us truthfully what he knows, but where you and I part ways is in the significance of his intelligence, and what's truly frustrating is that neither of us can assess right know who is right, me to be excessively skeptical, or you to see it is a sign of the outcome.

[Brittain33]

I am guessing you can do whatever you like with OH-2 and make it a Republican district anywhere in the state, that there will be no love lost for Jean Schmidt anywhere in the legislature.

[Torie]

Well to me this is a quite plausible map. As we both like to say - we shall see! Of course, I am going to push my little mappie.    Anyway, this is the next chapter of the work in progress. Yes, I know, Latta is a bit thin in OH-05, but I am impressed with his numbers when running, and unlike the Ohio River zone, this area trended Dem in 2008.

We are halfway done now: 8 CD's done, and 8 to go.





Oh, one kind of fun thing. As you know, I try to make the Pubbie CD's look as nice and pretty as possible, so thus you can see how I jiggled things to get to the right population for OH-05. The deus ex machina was picking up the last two precincts in Fostoria to put into OH-05, which happened to spill over from Seneca into Hancock County. It was just perfect! I had one little problem however. Hancock does not have precinct returns on the net. What to do? Well, what I did was pick up the phone and call the good folks at the Board of Elections in Hancock, and I asked a very nice lady if she would read me the Obama and McCain numbers for Fostoria North and Fostoria South, and she did, having however to go to the trouble of looking up the McCain numbers on one page, and the Obama numbers for the same precincts on another page. Several counties in Ohio organize their precinct data that way, and it is a pain in the butt. Yes, sad to say, Obama carried the two Forstoria precincts in Hancock by 57%.   One can't have everything, but for the cause of beautification, I just sic'ed Latta with the two precincts anyway. I am sure that he will understand.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Torie, why do you assume Boehner would want to represent Clark County?  My guess is he's perfectly happy with his current seat.  The Johnson and Renacci districts, and to a much lesser degree those drawn for Ryan and Gibbs, seem unlikely (lack of community of interest, too much precision required, etc).  Also, bare in mind when making this map that the Ohio Republican party is currently heading towards 2006/Bob Taft level unpopularity (not just anger at Kasich, but the whole state party).  Additionally, it's looking like a referendum on SB5 will probably be on the ballot in 2012.  Also, don't assume politicians will automatically put their personal interests ahead of their party's, it happens all the time (example: white Democrats not wanting a safe seat to go to an African-American in AR may well result in an awful dummymander, which seems to be fine by local Democrats).  I am skeptical that a quad-chop map of Franklin county would get enough Republican support to pass.  Plus the map is so easy to attack from a public relations stand-point, just look at the Northeast, it doesn't even pretend (the way Michigan's current map does) to be anything other than the most grotesque of gerrymanders (this is probably the least important concern).  Just some things to keep in mind.

[Torie]

If you are going to not have a Dem seat in Columbus, the over Pubbied CD's need to take a haircut, and Boehner's currently clocks in with a GOP PVI of about 15 - yes fifteen.  That will need to be cut in half. I will try to keep him at an 8, but no promises (I do promise him at least a 7). Boehner has a national perspective, and I am sure will be a team player on this.

Boehner's home by the way is in an inconvenient place - very inconvenient - and if he were not who he is, the odds are the legislature would tell him to move, because Chabot needs all of Butler. But alas, given the situation, Chabot cannot have any more of Butler, or anything north of it, so his CD is going to expand to the only place it can - to the northeast, taking in the northeast corner of Hamilton, and the SW corner of Warren. Moreover, Schmidt in any event under-performs for a Pubbie in her share of Hamilton (the highest SES zone in the Cincinnati meto area by far except for her 15 or so black precincts which she will be keeping, because Chabot gets no traction with his black precincts either - blacks just don't vote for Pubbies - who knew?). Chabot will do much better with these high SES white folks that he will be picking up. Schmidt however runs just fine with the less cosmopolitan folks living along the Ohio River to the east, and I intend to give her a lot more of such people.  

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

If you are going to not have a Dem seat in Columbus, the over Pubbied CD's need to take a haircut, and Boehner's currently clocks in with a GOP PVI of about 15 - yes fifteen.  That will need to be cut in half. I will try to keep him at an 8, but no promises (I do promise him at least a 7). Boehner has a national perspective, and I am sure will be a team player on this. His home is in an inconvenient place - very inconvenient - and if he were not who he is, the odds are the legislature would tell him to move, because Chabot needs all of Butler. But alas, given the situation, Chabot cannot have any more of Butler, or anything north of it, so his CD is going to expand to the only place it can - to the northeast, taking in the northeast corner of Hamilton, and the SW corner of Warren. Moreover, Schmidt in any event under-performs for a Pubbie in her share of Hamilton (the highest SES zone in Hamilton by far except for her 10 black precincts which she will be keeping, because Chabot gets no traction with his black precincts either - blacks just don't vote for Pubbies - who knew?). Chabot will do much better with these high SES white folks that he will be picking up. Schmidt however runs just fine with the less cosmopolitan folks living along the Ohio River to the east, and I intend to give her a lot more of such people.  

That's not completely true.  While Schmidt does better against generic Democrats in the rural areas, the right kind of Democrat (pre-implosion Paul Hackett, for example) could certainly beat her in an Ohio river district (and keep the seat for the foreseeable future).  And since it looks like you're planning to draw Strickland's home into her district...

With regard to Boehner, I think that once Congressman get to a certain level of power, the instinct is often to oppose anything less than a hyper-safe district (as in their party PVI higher than 10).  I don't think Boehner will be as much of a team player as you do on this, b/c it doesn't currently seem like the Democrats would take back the house even with a fair map, let alone a Republican hyper-gerrymander.  So I suspect he'll want his district's GOP PVI to be more or less the same.  Basically, I agree with Britain33 (though I think the Republicans will screw up Franklin County no matter what they do).  I could see a less grotesque and much less effective/safe -2 Democratic seats map passing, however.    

Btw, Torie, as a fairly liberal Democrat I shudder at your maps, yet I can't help but have a huge admiration for the time, effort, thought, and attention to detail that you clearly put into them.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Also there are several Republicans I could see getting screwed (and Stivers is NOT one of them, state party really, really likes him, they see him as a rising star).  Bill Johnson doesn't really have any connections in the state party, he's new, he's not a strong Congressman anyway, and probably wouldn't be missed.  Bob Gibbs is probably somewhat better connected, but he's still a new back-bencher who will probably never be anything more than a back-bencher.  Renacci's new and has a reputation for being a pretty weak Congressman.  The Republicans in the legislature hate Schmidt almost as much as the Democrats do (she was sort of like our version of pre-Congress Bill Sali for a while). 

With regard to Clark County, while this wouldn't ALWAYS be a safe Republican district, if you connected Clark and Montgomery counties, it would be a safe (even against a strong candidate in an anti-GOP wave year) for as long Mike Turner stayed in Congress.  He's pretty popular in Dayton, always has been.  He's the type of GOP Congressman who is strong enough to take in swing/Democratic territory.  Also, I still have doubts that a quad-chop map of Franklin county could get passed (not that I don't see way you want that).  That way you free up a bunch of wasted Republican suburban votes (Turner never really needed the help, the suburbs were added more to convince him to run than anything else).

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Also, I think they'll focus on making Boehner, Stivers, Tiberi, Jordan, Chabot, and Austria happy first and foremost, even at the expense of Schmidt, Gibbs, Johnson, and Renacci.

[Brittain33]

Btw, Torie, as a fairly liberal Democrat I shudder at your maps, yet I can't help but have a huge admiration for the time, effort, thought, and attention to detail that you clearly put into them.

Ditto.