US House Redistricting: Ohio

[Guderian]

This is a very smart map. Preserves the 2010 gains and it will spare the world of Dennis Kucinich.

[TJ in Oregon]

This is a very smart map. Preserves the 2010 gains and it will spare the world of Dennis Kucinich.

But the thing is it looks like they are trying to keep Kucinich. He has more current territory in the new OH-10 than Kaptur and even more of it is in the Cleveland media market. I was expecting that if they drew a Toledo to Cleveland seat (not that I wanted them to) it would be more Toledo than Cleveland, not this thing.

[Guderian]

This is a very smart map. Preserves the 2010 gains and it will spare the world of Dennis Kucinich.

But the thing is it looks like they are trying to keep Kucinich. He has more current territory in the new OH-10 than Kaptur and even more of it is in the Cleveland media market. I was expecting that if they drew a Toledo to Cleveland seat (not that I wanted them to) it would be more Toledo than Cleveland, not this thing.

Kucinich will lose to Kaptur. No way Dems keep that moron and lose a non-crazy liberal in good standing.

[Brittain33]

Maybe they just wanted Kucinich to feel confident enough to make a destructive primary run against Kaptur instead of fading away.

[Torie]

They chopped off about half the city. My map is only a crude approximation because they split a bunch of precincts, but I did make the populations right to within a precinct or two. They split off precincts where McCain was in the 20s. The only reason I can see why they left most of that western wedge was because Kaptur lives there.

Oh my! The Pubbies in Ohio must all be taking testosterone shots in even larger doses than I am, and I cheat on my dosage as it is. 

[lowtech redneck]

It just seems like it's convoluted for the sake of being convoluted.

Yeah...I hope I'm wrong, but I suspect this map may just end up hurting them with republican-leaning and Republican-trending Independents, canceling out any marginal gains from such an unnecessarily covoluted map.  The NC Republicans and Illinois Democrats can probably get away with their monstronsities better than political parties in a long-time swing-state like Ohio.  Then again, their Republican neighbors in Democratic-leaning Pennsylvania didn't seem to suffer a noticable backlash....

[minionofmidas]

They chopped off about half the city. My map is only a crude approximation because they split a bunch of precincts, but I did make the populations right to within a precinct or two. They split off precincts where McCain was in the 20s. The only reason I can see why they left most of that western wedge was because Kaptur lives there.

Oh my! The Pubbies in Ohio must all be taking testosterone shots in even larger doses than I am, and I cheat on my dosage as it is. 

No, it's just that the votes to eliminate two Northeast Democrats and keep Renacci and Gibbs alive just aren't there... but Latta and Jordan (is that Jordan?) could take a ream of extra Democrats. So they (sort of; technically) eliminated Kaptur's and Sutton's districts. Of course, they still had to concede a Columbus seat, and eliminate a southern Republican as a result.
Their map is actually "tamer" than what you envisaged, but more realistic, more imaginative and just as evil.

[minionofmidas]

I am also considering trying to draw one that packs Columbus and cracks Toledo.

Hmm...that might actually make more sense than cracking Columbus if you look at the trends. I just don't know whether there is enough population there. You would probably need to crack a bunch of democratic cities along the lake as well as parts of Cuyahoga I am guessing. But since the district needs to last ten years, it might be the safer option.

Ah, this was the comment I was thinking of (though it compares Toledo with Columbus rather than the Northeast). TJ gets the price I mentioned some posts back.

[TJ in Oregon]

The main reason why they needed to split Toledo like that is because they put more of Akron into OH-11 than our maps on this site had expected. We were more or less assuming they would just throw in a slice of Akron to get to 50.1% VAP black -- and no more. They decided instead to put a considerable portion of Akron into OH-11 and drew OH-9 into more of the west side of Cleveland. This results in having a less-packed OH-13 and an ugly OH-9.

I still don't understand some of the decisions they made in drawing OH-9. For instance, if they just included Benton Township in Ottawa County (~55% Obama and only about 2,000 people) it would be contiguous by road. They also could have peeled off a decent slice of Erie County and Lorain County that is way more marginal than many of the Toledo precincts they put into OH-4 and 5. We're probably talking 30,000-40,000 people in areas 50-55% Obama.

[Torie]

The main reason why they needed to split Toledo like that is because they put more of Akron into OH-11 than our maps on this site had expected. We were more or less assuming they would just throw in a slice of Akron to get to 50.1% VAP black -- and no more. They decided instead to put a considerable portion of Akron into OH-11 and drew OH-9 into more of the west side of Cleveland. This results in having a less-packed OH-13 and an ugly OH-9.

I still don't understand some of the decisions they made in drawing OH-9. For instance, if they just included Benton Township in Ottawa County (~55% Obama and only about 2,000 people) it would be contiguous by road. They also could have peeled off a decent slice of Erie County and Lorain County that is way more marginal than many of the Toledo precincts they put into OH-4 and 5. We're probably talking 30,000-40,000 people in areas 50-55% Obama.

That was a bit of it, but it was more that the bridge used from Cleveland to Akron was so populous, and oddly enough, so GOP. Bath is prime GOP country. Quite nutter actually. It makes no sense at all. LaTourette could have found his few extra pubbies elsewhere. And part of it is the obsession to keep townships whole I guess, while the rest of the map is a mess.

[minionofmidas]

The main reason why they needed to split Toledo like that is because they put more of Akron into OH-11 than our maps on this site had expected.

No, I don't really think so. It's the other way round - this way, they have about 2.6 Democratic districts in the northeast left (counting Lorain as northeast since it used to be in Sutton's district.) What goes where there is not so very relevant.

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Might just be carelessness (earlier drafts might have been working on similar premises to ours and this might be a holdover) - or preconceived, but not necessarily wrong, notions about how these people vote in congressional elections and who has the better organization there. These things happen all the time in even the most detailed gerrymanders. Occasionally, as in the last PA map or in the southern Democratic maps of 1992, they get overdone ridiculously.

That was a bit of it, but it was more that the bridge used from Cleveland to Akron was so populous, and oddly enough, so GOP. Bath is prime GOP country.

Ah. Now that is odd.

[krazen1211]

Map apparently passed the House.

[Brittain33]

Map apparently passed the House.

Aren't they embarrassed?

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Map apparently passed the House.

Aren't they embarrassed?

These are Ohio House Republicans we're talking about here. They have no shame.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Map apparently passed the House.

Aren't they embarrassed?

You aren't very familiar with American politics are you? 

[dpmapper]

Man, this would be so much better.  OH14 is now a McCain district again (by 322 votes, but still...), OH16's McCain percentage is up 1.3% to 51.9%, and OH07 is up .6% to 52.0% (there's an arm from OH13 that takes most of Canton).  Medina stays whole, Portage is only split once... what's not to like? 

[TJ in Oregon]

Yeah...I hope I'm wrong, but I suspect this map may just end up hurting them with republican-leaning and Republican-trending Independents, canceling out any marginal gains from such an unnecessarily covoluted map.  The NC Republicans and Illinois Democrats can probably get away with their monstronsities better than political parties in a long-time swing-state like Ohio.  Then again, their Republican neighbors in Democratic-leaning Pennsylvania didn't seem to suffer a noticable backlash....

On this front, after reading the comments section on the Cleveland newspaper's website, the outcry isn't half bad. The public seems unable to distinguish between tame gerrymander and this monstrosity. It doesn't seem any different really than the response in the Millwaukee paper after the Wisconsin map was released and the Republicans did their weak gerrymander there.

[jimrtex]

This plan is based on minimizing county and city splits, maintaining communities of interest, and to be reasonably compact and limited to major demographic areas of the state.  It was drawn without reference to political parties, current districts, or incumbents.

There are significant county splits in only the three larger counties.  The others are split only for better population equality.  Before those splits only 4 districts had deviation greater than 0.5%, and the worst was 1.1% short.



In northeastern Ohio, only Cuyahoga County has a significant split.  Cleveland and the eastern suburbs form a district that is entirely in the county, and has a 47% BVAP.  Most of the rest of the western and southern parts of the county are in a district that included Medina and Wayne counties.  A district barely comes into the county from the west to include Bay Village and part of Westlake.  A Summit-Portage district takes just enough to get up to the ideal population, while a northeastern district takes in the eastern tier of township.



In Cuyahoga County, only Solon and Westlake are split for purposes of population balance.



In Franklin County, the central district is based on Columbus along with enclaves like Bexley, Whitehall and Upper Arlington, with the extreme tentacles of Columbus chopped off.  About 80% of Columbus is included in the district.   Besides Columbus, only Prairie Township is significantly split.  Prairie has a significant residential enclave surrounded by Columbus and a less developed area on the outer edge of county.  It didn't make sense to extend the Columbus district to the western edge county, or to try to free up the enclave.

There are dozens of small enclaves of Columbus that results in minimal splits of those townships, with perhaps 2000 persons.



In southwestern Ohio, most of Hamilton County including Cincinnati makes up one district.  About 80,000 persons in the extreme eastern part along with Clermont County make up about 40% of a district, with 60% in counties to the east including along the Ohio River.  Butler and Warren make up most of a northern suburban district and including somewhat distinct cities such as Hamilton, Middletown, and Lebanon.  Montgomery and Greene form a Dayton based district, while Clark and Miami are part of Springfield a appendage that extend to the Columbus area.   Southwestern Ohio can support about 4 districts.  But to keep them in the area would mean splitting the Dayton district, or having a district wrap around from the Cincinnati suburbs to Springfield.  Having two districts extending outside of the area seems the better solution.



The only split city is Montgomery, with one precinct moved to Cincinnati district.

[jimrtex]

This is my variant to create a 51% BVAP district in Cuyahoga and Summit Counties.



It adds the 3 Black majority wards in Akron (63% BVAP)



In exchange for 2 wards and 3 precincts in south Cleveland (10% BVAP), avoiding wards west of downtown along the lakefront that are around 20% BVAP.



The odd shape of the Cleveland area is due to the ward configuration.  The long arm coming down from the north is Ward 3 which extends all the way to the lake.  They must have needed some more population.

And the arm extending up on the right is all in one precinct in an area along the Cuyahoga.  The upper 4/5 of the precinct are uninhabited, including that odd triangular area at the tip.  So it is actually really quite reasonable.

[krazen1211]

Stivers really wants the banks in downtown Columbus.

[Torie]

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That's where he lives dude - right at the base of that spike to the south - where "the banks" are. 

He lives in just a charming little house actually. I want it!  It is my kind of neighborhood - it's old just like me! 

[DrScholl]

He's on the Financial Services Committee, the way the district is drawn around Columbus has a lot to do with that.

[krazen1211]

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That's where he lives dude - right at the base of that spike to the south - where "the banks" are. 

He lives in just a charming little house actually. I want it!  It is my kind of neighborhood - it's old just like me! 

Hmm, I thought he lives in Upper Arlington.

[Torie]

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That's where he lives dude - right at the base of that spike to the south - where "the banks" are. 

He lives in just a charming little house actually. I want it!  It is my kind of neighborhood - it's old just like me! 

Hmm, I thought he lives in Upper Arlington.

Nope, I pulled his deed when I did my Columbus chop. Lawyers can do that. We're special.

[Padfoot]

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That's where he lives dude - right at the base of that spike to the south - where "the banks" are. 

He lives in just a charming little house actually. I want it!  It is my kind of neighborhood - it's old just like me! 

Hmm, I thought he lives in Upper Arlington.

Nope, I pulled his deed when I did my Columbus chop. Lawyers can do that. We're special.

Several local news articles have reported that he moved to Upper Arlington recently.  For good measure, I checked his wikipedia page and it lists his residence as UA as well.