US House Redistricting: Ohio

[minionofmidas]

Steve Austria is not a white dude.

[minionofmidas]

Just checking; don't want to read through the entire thread. You're going for 13-3 here?

[minionofmidas]

What is DRA?

Dave's redistricting app?

I just figured that out now that I see thatOhio has the census numbers now. Which means I have to redraw the whole fcking map. Boo!  

I wonder if you use the block group option, or the 2010 precincts option, to get the census data. I guess I will find out by trial and error.

2010 precincts. Maybe block groups for 2010 are also available for some states, but I think they'll be added later.

[minionofmidas]

Republican PVI seat, IIRC, not actually a McCain district. It didn't look too bad, either (whole towns), and had the right population for another, Democratic, seat southeast of it.

[minionofmidas]

How hard would it be to add some extra points to Chabot without weakening Schmidt or Turner (well, Turner's hypothetical successor)?
Jordan and Latta's districts look horrid - since it doesn't serve to make both safe seats, what is the purpose behind that? Something to do with residence? Or would a more reasonable-looking geographic split be even more uneven?
Also, you're taking a bit of a gamble with Johnson's seat - it's not a given that the disconnect between presidential and congressional vote shares in these kinds of areas is gone for good just because it was obliterated in 2010.

[minionofmidas]

We don't want him to by "Folyized."

My linguistic sensibilities demand "Foleyfied".

[minionofmidas]

The state's not trending any way. So, vile as the northeast map is, it should hold unless Johnson fouls up.
Columbus (or even Cincy, but R's can always regain lost seats there) is another matter. Can't speak before we actually see a finished Columbus Chop map.

[minionofmidas]

Torie: if the VRA doesn't apply in Ohio why did you put so much time and effort into making OH-11 majority Black?

Only the preclearance requirement doesn't apply.

[minionofmidas]

I certainly wouldn't have replied just for the "e". But "foleyfied" sounds like a word the English language needs.

One other minor detail. Kaptur has lost so many precincts in Lucas, that I wonder if Sutton will challenge her in a primary. The center of gravity of OH-09 is not really in Lucas County anymore. It is more Cuyahoga oriented. I just stripped Lucas County to death. The key might be the Dem precincts in OH-09 in Lorain County;will they go to Sutton or Kaptur? It would be a delightful bonus if Kaptur is tanked. I can't think of one public issue as to which I agree with her. It is pretty much the null set.

Sutton will likely lose the primary to Ryan. Kaptur will likely lose the primary to Kucinich.
This is presuming (just for the sake of the argument) that they all run, of course.

[minionofmidas]

Okay, I admit I framed this answer that way largely for aesthetic reasons. Kaptur would beat Kucinich, and Sutton is, I think, in your lawngreen pubbie seat, but near the Akron end.

[minionofmidas]

Johnson's district is no more McCainish than Renacci's, on less traditional Republican territory. How do commentators and whatnot peg Johnson so far? Strong? Weak?
At least he doesn't have Renacci's problem of a competent Democratic incumbent. Your OH-16 sort of has PA-17 written all over it if things go even a tiny bit of wrong.

[minionofmidas]

You're right about Johnson getting areas around Canton, of course. Forgot to take that into account. (And for the last time: Betty Sutton takes the female third person personal pronoun. )
It does make me wonder, but this is really for after your map is finished: What's the safest map that R's can draw themselves, chopping Columbus but throwing one of their northern congresscritters under the bus and eliminating only one of Sutton and Kucinich (I presume that would end up drawing them into a single district together)? As I said, for afterwards. Please finish this. I ask mostly because it does seem quite possible that the three northern D's plan would be rejected as too dangerous, if this is the best you can do.
(The Columbus chop is a necessary condition to any 4 northern Ds map, obviously - the GOP is not going to voluntarily give up both abolished seats.)

[minionofmidas]

You're right about Johnson getting areas around Canton, of course. Forgot to take that into account. (And for the last time: Betty Sutton takes the female third person personal pronoun. )
It does make me wonder, but this is really for after your map is finished: What's the safest map that R's can draw themselves, chopping Columbus but throwing one of their northern congresscritters under the bus and eliminating only one of Sutton and Kucinich (I presume that would end up drawing them into a single district together)? As I said, for afterwards. Please finish this. I ask mostly because it does seem quite possible that the three northern D's plan would be rejected as too dangerous, if this is the best you can do.
(The Columbus chop is a necessary condition to any 4 northern Ds map, obviously - the GOP is not going to voluntarily give up both abolished seats.)

Under any strong 4 district plan, the 4th district has to go in Columbus, which is both more Democratic and faster growing than any 4th district in the North would be.

Which just means that any map that all the R's intended as winning are actually happy with and safe (barring events) under, is an 11-5 map (or rather 10-5-1 taking account of Chabot's. 9-5-2 after Turner retires, should that happen during the decade. Unless Torie pubbied those up. Oh yeah, 8-5-3 if LaTourette retires, though I see no reason why he should.). Which, however, is exceedingly unlikely to actually happen - as that would mean Republicans abolishing two Republican districts.

[minionofmidas]

A safe seat is a seat that can be won comfortably in a bad year for the party in question; any other definition is stretching the language beyond meaningful use, I think.

That may be a bit of a strong requirement. Back in 2002, would there have been any reason to call ID-01 or even NY-29 anything but safe Republican? And yet they both went Democratic in 2008.

Note, "can".

[minionofmidas]

we have different philosophies I think. I don't care much who represents a +5% GOP CD. The Dem will either be house broken, and a moderate, or will be gone in short order. If that means means a few weak Pubbies go down the drain in the meantime, that is probably for the best. If Schmidt can't win a +9% GOP PVI CD, then good riddance to her!  

Spoken like a true RINO.
You see, this is exactly why it's dubious that Republican operatives would go with your maps - they don't agree with that premise. At all.

[minionofmidas]

I take that back. You're not a rhinoceros. You are a gorgeous octopus.
Doesn't change the rest of the statement, though.

[minionofmidas]

Wait, krazen, shouldn't keeping Kucinich sorta alive and especially eliminating Sutton require Fudge to anchor into Akron?

[minionofmidas]

Why is the 3rd drawn as it is?

[minionofmidas]

So no attack on Sutton?

[minionofmidas]

Do we have a map?

[minionofmidas]

Lol 15th.

Someone do me a detailed reconstruction of the 16th... R's must be feeling fairly confident of winning it (or just seeing no better way to keep Renacci alive).

How solid is the 1st district shore-up of Chabot - not today (I have little doubt it's solid in 2012), but for later in the decade?

[minionofmidas]

Lol 15th.

Someone do me a detailed reconstruction of the 16th... R's must be feeling fairly confident of winning it (or just seeing no better way to keep Renacci alive).

How solid is the 1st district shore-up of Chabot - not today (I have little doubt it's solid in 2012), but for later in the decade?

Chabot got a 7 point boost from 2008.

Thanks, that's utterly solid then probably.

[minionofmidas]

I'm guessing they are trying to keep Austria semi-content by letting him stick with his current counties.  

Or maybe they're actually trying to get rid of Turner? Or even looking ahead to his retirement - his current seat is competitive without him?

[minionofmidas]

That's merely why Illinois was even in the running til this map was released.

[minionofmidas]

Somebody take a look for me at where that Canton split runs, exactly. Also, Mahoning.