US House Redistricting: Ohio

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Here's another stab at a 12-4 map:

State



NE Ohio



Columbus



OH-01 (blue, Steve Chabot - R) - Shaved off a bit of Cincinnati proper and added some of the suburbs SE of the city.
OH-02 (green, Jean Schmidt - R) - Stretches the length of the state now. Still should remain a pretty Republican district, and as long as Schmidt can keep her trap shut, she shouldn't have any trouble winning here.
OH-03 (purple, Mike Turner - R) - Includes almost all of Dayton now, but that's compensated for by having the district stretch north to the heavily-Republican rural counties.
OH-04 (red, Jim Jordan - R) - Cuts out part of Columbus to help Stivers. The rest of the district is pretty Republican, so it shouldn't endanger Jordan.
OH-05 (yellow, Bob Latta - R) - Wow, Ohio's Congressional delegation is generic. This district is mostly the same.
OH-06 (teal, Bill Johnson - R and Bob Gibbs - R) - Battle of the underwhelming freshmen! OH-06 and OH-18 are combined to make a Republican-leaning district.
OH-07 (grey, Steve Austria - R) - Seriously, have any of these white dudes done anything? This one cuts out part of Columbus, but again should be compensated for with some Republican parts in the southwest.
OH-08 (light purple, John Boehner - R) - Nobody's going to mess with the Speaker's seat, obviously. Takes in the (Republican) Dayton suburbs now.
OH-09 (sky blue, Marcy Katpur - D) - Hooray, a Democrat to talk about. This is the inevitable Toledo-to-Lorain district that everyone has been drawing for Kaptur.
OH-10 (magenta, Dennis Kucinich - D) - All the white, Democratic parts of Cuyahoga County, and a bit of Lake County. Safe for Kucinich.
OH-11 (light green, Marcia Fudge - D and Betty Sutton - D) - The black parts of Cleveland connected to Akron in order to maintain a majority-black district (52% black). Sutton's hometown of Copley has been split between this district and OH-16, and there's no chance of her winning a primary here or a general there.
OH-12 (very light purple, Pat Tiberi - R) - I kept Tiberi's portions of Columbus together because all the African-Americans are in OH-12, and splitting them up might cause a court fight. Expanded the outlying parts some to move the needle a couple points to the Republicans.
OH-13 (pink, Tim Ryan - D) - The former OH-17, it snakes from the Youngstown area down to Canton and Dover. I believe this puts ex-Reps. Boccieri and Space in the district just to spice things up a bit.
OH-14 (brown, Steve LaTourette - R) - Stretches down to the Akron/Canton suburbs; should remain Republican-leaning.
OH-15 (orange, Steve Stivers - R) - Cuts out a bunch of Columbus and stretches southeast in order to make this a much less swingy district. Wasn't sure where in Columbus Stivers lived, but he can always move.
OH-16 (light green, Jim Renacci - R) - Dumps Canton and expands north to the Cleveland and Akron suburbs, so it should be pretty safe Republican now.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Thanks, the ethnicity of a Republican backbencher is the one thing I wanted people to focus on.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Here's another stab at a 12-4 map:

If you're going to fracture Columbus, is there a way to route Bob Latta into there as well?

Not without a really tortured-looking map. I think once you start splitting counties more than four ways you get into overkill.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

With the new ACS estimates, my OH-11 is under by 50,000 voters. I don't think there's going to be any way to keep Fudge's district majority-black.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Unconstitutional racial gerrymander or no? (52% black)

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Chabot could just move to the western end of the city. He'd get a safe district in return.

I mean, it does have the advantage of making pretty much every other seat outside of the Cleveland/Youngstown/Toledo districts safe for the Republicans.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

You can't append parts of OH-10 to OH-11, since the former is overwhelmingly white and the latter needs to be majority-black, or at least as close to it as possible.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Even if the Massachusetts Dems were to draw as Republican a district as possible, it still wouldn't guarantee electing a Republican. The best you could hope for is about an Obama +6 or so district in southeastern Mass. There's less of an excuse when a compact Columbus district would easily elect a Democrat.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Let me throw some lighter fluid onto the fire: Pat Tiberi is suddenly talking about running for the Senate. What happens if he vacates his marginal Columbus-area seat?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

With partisan data, here's another stab at a 12-4 Republican map:



OH-01 (blue) - 51.3 Obama, 47.5 McCain. (Was 55-44 Obama)
OH-02 (green) - 56.7 McCain, 41.8 Obama. (Was 59-40 McCain)
OH-03 (purple) - 52.4 McCain, 46.2 Obama. (Was 51-47 McCain)
OH-04 (red) - 57.0 McCain, 41.0 Obama. (Was 60-38 McCain)
OH-05 (yellow) - 51.7 McCain, 46.6 Obama. (Was 53-45 McCain)
OH-06 (teal) - 51.1 McCain, 46.5 Obama. (OH-06 was 50-48 McCain, OH-18 was 52-46 McCain)
OH-07 (grey) - 49.4 Obama, 49.1 McCain. (Was 54-45 McCain)
OH-08 (light purple) - 61.6 McCain, 36.8 Obama. (Was 60-38 McCain)
OH-09 (sky blue) - 65.2 Obama, 33.1 McCain. (Was 62-36 Obama)
OH-10 (magenta) - 58.9 Obama, 39.6 McCain. (OH-10 was 59-39 Obama, OH-11 was 57-42 Obama)
OH-11 (light green Cleveland-Akron) - 83.2 Obama, 16.1 McCain, 51.4% black VAP. (Was 85-15 Obama)
OH-12 (light purple Columbus) - 50.5 Obama, 48.1 McCain. (Was 53-46 Obama)
OH-13 (pink) - 59.4 Obama, 38.4 McCain. (OH-17 was 62-36 Obama)
OH-14 (brown) - 49.2 Obama, 49.2 McCain (Obama by 16 votes!). (Was 49-49 McCain)
OH-15 (orange) - 50.7 Obama, 47.6 McCain. (Was 54-45 Obama)
OH-16 (light green) - 52.4 McCain, 45.9 Obama. (Was 50-48 McCain)

Sutton and Kucinich are drawn into the same district, as are Johnson and Ryan.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

For the heck of it, here's a Democratic gerrymander:



OH-01 (blue) - 59.2 Obama, 39.8 McCain (Was 55-44 Obama)
OH-02 (green) - 61.5 McCain, 36.7 Obama (Was 59-40 McCain)
OH-03 (purple) - 54.3 Obama, 44.1 McCain (Was 51-47 McCain)
OH-04 (red) - 63.0 McCain, 35.1 Obama (Was 60-38 McCain)
OH-05 (yellow) - 52.0 McCain, 46.2 Obama (Was 53-45 McCain)
OH-06 (teal) - 50.3 Obama, 47.4 McCain (Was 50-48 McCain)
OH-07 (grey) - 60.7 McCain, 37.3 Obama (Was 54-45 McCain)
OH-08 (light purple) - 67.1 McCain, 31.8 Obama (Was 60-38 McCain)
OH-09 (sky blue) - 59.8 Obama, 38.5 McCain (Was 62-36 Obama)
OH-10 (light green Cuyahoga/Lorain) - 57.6 Obama, 41.0 McCain (Was 59-39 Obama)
OH-11 (magenta) - 83.5 Obama, 15.7 McCain, 50.9% black VAP (Was 85-14 Obama)
OH-12 (light purple Columbus) - 52.5 Obama, 45.8 McCain (Was 53-46 Obama)
OH-13 (pink) - 57.7 Obama, 40.7 McCain (Was 57-42 Obama)
OH-14 (brown) - 58.5 Obama, 39.5 McCain (OH-14 was 49-49 McCain, OH-17 was 62-36 Obama)
OH-15 (orange) - 61.1 Obama, 37.5 McCain (Was 54-45 Obama)
OH-16 (light green) - 56.2 McCain, 41.7 Obama (Was 50-48 McCain)

I would expect OH-01, 09, 10, 11, 13, 14, and 15 to be safe Dem, OH-06 and 12 to be swing districts, and OH-02, 04, 05, 07, 08, and 16 to be safe Republican. So, 8-6-2. Maybe 8-5-3 if you think OH-05 would be a swing district.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I don't think it would be worth making OH-09 vulnerable in exchange for maybe winning OH-05.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Jim Jordan's hijinks as head of the Republican Study Committee may lose him his seat.

Edit: I see this was already posted in the Ohio redistricting contest thread for some reason.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Here's my attempt:



OH-01 (blue) - 51.4 Obama, 47.5 McCain
OH-02 (green) - 55.4 McCain, 43.0 Obama
OH-03 (purple) - 50.6 McCain, 48.0 Obama
OH-04 (red, formerly OH-18) - 52.0 McCain, 45.7 Obama
OH-05 (yellow) - 56.1 McCain, 41.9 Obama
OH-06 (teal) - 52.3 McCain, 45.4 Obama
OH-07 (grey) - 51.7 McCain, 46.7 Obama
OH-08 (light purple) - 61.9 McCain, 36.4 Obama
OH-09 (sky blue) - 61.2 Obama, 37.1 McCain
OH-10 (magenta) - 61.1 Obama, 37.4 McCain
OH-11 (light green) - 81.8 Obama, 17.4 McCain, 50.5% black VAP
OH-12 (light purple Columbus) - 51.1 Obama, 47.6 McCain
OH-13 (pink, formerly OH-17) - 61.1 Obama, 37.0 McCain
OH-14 (brown) - 49.9 McCain, 48.6 Obama
OH-15 (orange) - 51.2 Obama, 47.1 McCain
OH-16 (khaki) - 51.3 McCain, 47.0 Obama

Jordan is dumped in with Boehner, Sutton is either in with Fudge or LaTourette (Copley is split between the two districts). It would probably be better for Republicans to get rid of Sutton than Kucinich, since Dennis is a gadly with no chance of ever running for statewide office. Otherwise, most Reps have to sacrifice a bit to spread out the danger.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Right, I put him in Stivers' district (which was, in fact, my intention). Duh. Stupid rectangular counties.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Word from Marcy Kaptur's office:

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[JohnnyLongtorso]

If Republicans are smart, they'll have someone lined up to primary Schmidt. She could lose that seat.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Ohio Supreme Court rules unanimously that the maps can be sent to a referendum.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

So basically they just made OH-15 look less ludicrous and makes OH-10 (edit: the former OH-03) more compact and slightly better for the Dems (looks like it's pretty much 50/50 Obama-McCain).