US House Redistricting: Ohio

[Sbane]

It's interesting that you guys are able to get the Dems down to 3 districts in the NE. Imho that is even more of a reason to give the Dems a seat in Columbus and make sure you don't lose any central or western Ohio seats even in a bad year. It would really suck for the pubbies if a few districts flipped in the northeast as well as Columbus. And the trend is in the wrong direction in Columbus for the GOP.

[Sbane]

It's interesting that you guys are able to get the Dems down to 3 districts in the NE. Imho that is even more of a reason to give the Dems a seat in Columbus and make sure you don't lose any central or western Ohio seats even in a bad year. It would really suck for the pubbies if a few districts flipped in the northeast as well as Columbus. And the trend is in the wrong direction in Columbus for the GOP.

Thus my rather extensive post about Columbus. It needs a lot of work to mitigate the damage. Otherwise the map is just an exercise in foolishness, in the longer term.

By the way, it is not just 3 Dem CD's in NE Ohio. It is 3 CD's in the entire state! We have the OH-09 snake with a double prong at the end, like that instrument you use to shove stuff around in your fireplace, and then the black - white liberal pack (OH-11), and the down and out quite white pack, but 20% black as it sucks up Dem precincts (OH-06).  The map is just a monster Gerry. It's just brutal. But we live in brutal partisan times - so the Pubbies might just do it.

Yeah, I should have said the north has 3 Dem cd's which in effect means the whole state. But really it should be 3 Dem CD's in the north and the Columbus district. Krazen drew a pretty nice map I think. I have a feeling the GOP may go for the 3 Dem map though, but perhaps one of the other districts could be a swing district.

[Sbane]

A 13-3 map is going to end badly, I just know it. If the pubbies go full gerrymander like Torie's map, they might be able to just hold on, but I doubt it will be that efficient. Probably too many disparate interests to make a precise map like the one Tories is drawing to be practical. And it really needs to be that perfect to have a chance of holding, and even then it's not guaranteed.

[Sbane]

A 13-3 map is going to end badly, I just know it. If the pubbies go full gerrymander like Torie's map, they might be able to just hold on, but I doubt it will be that efficient. Probably too many disparate interests to make a precise map like the one Tories is drawing to be practical. And it really needs to be that perfect to have a chance of holding, and even then it's not guaranteed.

I don't know about that. A plus 6% GOP PVI for the Pubbie zone (my estimate of where it will end up) leaves a fair amount of pad. (Remember that the state of Ohio starts out with a GOP PVI of 1.5%.) A 4% GOP PVI would be good enough, assuming even Pubbie distribution in the Pubbie zone, which of course it won't be. For starters, we probably will need to make sure Boehner has at least a 6% GOP PVI. We don't want him to by "Folyized."  In any event, some of my erosity can be done away with, but they will have to do my little cut through Cleveland, or it won't work at all. I do suspect to see both the Akron and Canton cuts as well, with Akron of course being a given. In any event, I will try to make the balance of the map pretty for you, so be happy sbane. I am really proud of OH-13. I spent a lot of time on it.

I think cutting up the northeast is a good idea (seems like an area that will swing around only to be dissapointed by both parties), but messing around with Columbus is going to burn the Republicans. The pubbies in PA seem to be more reasonable. Why is that?

[Sbane]

I think cutting up the northeast is a good idea (seems like an area that will swing around only to be dissapointed by both parties), but messing around with Columbus is going to burn the Republicans. The pubbies in PA seem to be more reasonable. Why is that?

Ohio Republicans haven't actually commented on much. We don't know if they're actually trying to do a 13-3 map; they've actually hinted that the aren't, or at least that such will be 'incredibly difficult'.

I think a 13-3-1 map might be in the realm of possibility, and it could be a greedy map, but not exactly a suicidal map.

[Sbane]

Wow this is coming together very well. I'm very impressed. Looks like you have the numbers needed to finish the deed. Of course it could also lead to a 13-3 map in the wrong direction. But no, you have protected the pubbies against that pretty well. Let's see if the legislature does just as good of a job.

[Sbane]

I am also considering trying to draw one that packs Columbus and cracks Toledo.

Hmm...that might actually make more sense than cracking Columbus if you look at the trends. I just don't know whether there is enough population there. You would probably need to crack a bunch of democratic cities along the lake as well as parts of Cuyahoga I am guessing. But since the district needs to last ten years, it might be the safer option.