US House Redistricting: Ohio

[RBH]

is there something we should know about Clark County that prevents it from being in the same district as Mike Turner and Steve Austria? moving Clark to that district means that the 15th looks less like a melted stapler than before.

[RBH]

is there something we should know about Clark County that prevents it from being in the same district as Mike Turner and Steve Austria? moving Clark to that district means that the 15th looks less like a melted stapler than before.

There are considerable numbers of people living there. It's marginal. Add it in, and you get a seat only Turner can be *safe* in.

yeah, but Steve Austria beating Mike Turner in a primary seems sort of hard to believe. Even if you try an even-steven split between the 3rd and 7th. Clark in the 15th looks like the areas outside of the blue Springfield (which is dropped in the 4th).

At least I know why the Austro-Turnerian Empire is District 10. 3 plus 7 equals 10. I was expecting them to top the 10th off in Columbus, the 13th gets to be Ryan's district, the 3rd is the Turner/Austria district. and the 7th is Gibbs district. So I went 2 for 4.

[RBH]

Map in case of the amendment passing this fall and new lines coming up for 2014

First 8 districts numbered by how far south they are, Last 8 numbered by how far north they are (with the last 5 numbered from West-East on Lake Erie)

Statewide:


District 1 (open, Wenstrup?):

59/39 McCain, 52/48 R, 95W/2B

District 2 (Chabot and Wenstrup):

55/44 Obama, 52/48 D, 65W/28B

District 3 (Boehner):

64/35 McCain, 63/37 R, 87W/5B

District 4 (Bill Johnson or Charlie Wilson):

49/48 Obama, 60/40 D, 94W/3B

District 5 (Jordan):

59/39 McCain, 58/42 R, 89W/6B

District 6 (Turner):

51/47 McCain, 53/47 R, 78W/16B

District 7 (Tiberi and Stivers):

52/47 McCain, 54.5/45.5 R, 81W/8B

District 8 (Joyce Beatty):

65/33 Obama, 64/36 D, 62.5W/27B/5H

District 9 (Gibbs):

58/40 McCain, 55.5/44.5 R, 92W/4B

District 10 (open, Tim Ryan? Joyce Healy-Abrams?):

55/43 Obama, 63/37 D, 85W/9B

District 11 (Sutton or Renacci):

55/44 Obama, 60/40 D, 83.5W/11B

District 12 (Kaptur):

56/42 Obama, 58/42 D, 79W/12B

District 13 (Latta):

51/47 Obama, 54/46 D, 87W/4B/6H

District 14 (open):

55/44 Obama, 60/40 D, 87W/5B

District 15 (Fudge):

80/20 Obama, 80/20 D, 42W/49B (45.5 VAWhite-46.2 VABlack)

District 16 (David Joyce and Tim Ryan):

52.5/46 Obama, 58/42 D, 91W/4.5B

A look at Cuyahoga County:


And my first draft (where I decided to switch things up for 5, 7, 8, 9 and 13):

Figured 8 and 13 were not particularly concise, and did some redrawing over those 5)

Overall
x Safe R (1, 3, 5, 9)
x Lean R (6, 7)
x Tossup (4)
x Lean D (2, 13, 16)
x Safe D (8, 10, 11, 12, 14, 15)

Thoughts?

[RBH]

when it comes to the map I put up... if I just cut Franklin in two between 7 and 8, i'd probably create two attractive reliably D districts.

But the competition map splitting Franklin into 4 districts is a bit much.

There's really no way of creating an Ashtabula district without having it involve heavy populations on both sides... short of having the district go from East Cleveland into the PA state line.

Looking at the Ohio TV market map: http://dishuser.org/TVMarkets/Maps/ohio.gif

pretty much all maps openly mock TV market lines