US House Redistricting: Ohio

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

If I assume GOP control, then this was my attempt to maximize their result. I kept counties as intact as possible and kept districts defensibly compact. The VRA district links Akron to Cleveland along the Cuyahoga Valley NP. Based on the nearly even presidential results of 2004 to judge the districts this would be 12-4 in favor of the GOP.

I have a hard time seeing your 16th not going Democratic.  

I think that's intended to be one of the four (the other three being the 9th, 10th, and 11th.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

What is the McCain margin in CD-12?  If looks weak to me.

Without precinct data for Franklin and Delaware Counties, I can't really tell, but McCain got around 56% in the whole counties to the east, which account for over 60% of the district's population. Delaware County is pretty uniformly Republican and voted 59% McCain. And looking at the town map on the Atlas for 2004, it appears that some of the most Republican areas of Franklin County are in the northeast corner, but the district takes in some Democratic areas of Franklin County as well. I would consider 55% McCain to be a solid, conservative estimate.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

I was just looking up where the new freshmen live, and apparently, Bill Johnson, of the 6th District, lives in, of all places, Mahoning County. That's a disaster waiting to happen. If a Republican district is to be chopped, that's the one.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Here's my (hopefully) 12-4 Republican map:



(Damn zoom levels were uncooperative. Anyway, it should be obvious where the cut off pieces go.)

Cleveland:


Columbus:


And Cincinnati:


District 1 (Blue, Cincinnati)- Incumbent: Steve Chabot (R): The district loses its Butler County portion and gains Republican areas in northeastern Hamilton County. Should still be a fairly safe Republican seat.
District 2 (Green, Cincinnati-Athens)- Incumbent: Jean Schmidt (R): As part of the current Sixth District's removal, everything from Athens County west was added to the Second. The whole counties in this district (with Athens County being counted as whole despite a small portion being in the Seventh) voted 56.67% McCain, and 59.40% Bush in 2004.
District 3 (Purple, Dayton)- Incumbent: Michael Turner (R): Not much changed here- the district picked up more of Warren County and part of Ross County. Should be Safe Republican.
District 4 (Red, Springfield-Lima-Mansfield)- Incumbent: Jim Jordan (R): Democrats in Springfield get sunk into the Fourth rather than the Seventh.  Safe Republican.
District 5 (Yellow, Bowling Green-Ashland)- Incumbent: Bob Latta (R): This district is made slightly more Democratic by pushing further into the Toledo suburbs. Should still be safe Republican.
District 6 (Teal, Youngstown-Akron)- Incumbents: Tim Ryan (D) vs. Bill Johnson (R): Formerly the 17th. For reasons that I explained above, the Sixth District is a likely candidate for elimination. In this plan, Johnson gets paired with Ryan in a district that heavily favors Ryan. Johnson's other option is to move to the new 13th, and run against fellow Republican freshman Bob Gibbs in the primary. Bear in mind that although a Republican holds the Sixth District now, it is essentially a Democratic-leaning seat being eliminated.
District 7 (Grey, Xenia-Lancaster)- Incumbent: Steve Austria (R): This district loses Springfield and gains rural areas in Hocking, Vinton, and Ross Counties. Safe Republican.
District 8 (Lavender, Exurban Cincinnati-Dayton)- Incumbent: John Boehner (R): This district gains territory in Mercer, Butler, and Warren Counties. Safe Republican.
District 9 (Sky Blue, Toledo-Lorain)- Incumbent: Marcy Kaptur (D): This district sheds some of the Toledo suburbs to pick up Democratic Lorain and Elyria, as part of the effort to eliminate the Thirteenth. Safe Democratic.
District 10 (Magenta, Cleveland-Akron) Incumbents: Dennis Kucinich (D) vs. Betty Sutton (D): Kucinich might actually live in the Eleventh, I'm not sure. This district essentially combines the current Tenth and Thirteenth Districts, to eliminate one of Kucinich and Sutton. This district should be safe Democratic.
District 11 (Yellow Green, Cleveland-Euclid) Incumbent: Marcia Fudge (D): This district barely qualifies as black-majority at 50.38% Black. Safe Democratic.
District 12 (Pale Blue, Columbus-Newark) Incumbent: Pat Tiberi (R): I didn't mess around too much with Columbus because I don't know exactly where in Columbus Stivers lives. This district gains eastern Licking County and western Knox County. Should be Safe Republican.
District 13 (Peach, Zanesville-New Philadelphia) Incumbent: Bob Gibbs (R): This district picks up the center of the current Sixth, from Columbiana to Washington Counties, and makes room for it by shedding territory to the southwest. The whole counties in this district voted 51.52% for McCain, and 54.07% for Bush in 2004.
District 14 (Bronze, Mentor-Ashtabula) Incumbent: Steven LaTourette (R): This district unfortunately has to expand, and has no place to go but south. That makes the district more Democratic, but I think this is the best that can be done.
District 15 (Orange, Western Columbus) Incumbent: Steve Stivers (R): As I explained above, I don't know exactly where Stivers lives. If I did, I might have tried something more adventurous. The district doesn't look like it's changed much, and it hasn't, but it picks up Republican suburbs in northwestern Franklin County.
District 16 (Light Green, Canton-Medina) Incumbent: Jim Renacci (R): This district doesn't change too much, picking up mostly Republican parts of Medina and Lorain counties to facilitate the Thirteenth District's elimination. This district is probably slightly more Republican than it is currently.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

The GOP could then claim some fairness by eliminating one district from each party and setting up two general election matchups between incumbents, with Dems favored in one and the GOP favored in the other.

This is part of the reason I think the 6th will definitely be eliminated. It is, after all, a Democratic-leaning district. By eliminating it, the GOP can say that they're getting rid of a Democrat and a Republican, but they're really getting rid of two Democratic districts.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

For the heck of it, here's a Democratic gerrymander:



OH-01 (blue) - 59.2 Obama, 39.8 McCain (Was 55-44 Obama)
OH-02 (green) - 61.5 McCain, 36.7 Obama (Was 59-40 McCain)
OH-03 (purple) - 54.3 Obama, 44.1 McCain (Was 51-47 McCain)
OH-04 (red) - 63.0 McCain, 35.1 Obama (Was 60-38 McCain)
OH-05 (yellow) - 52.0 McCain, 46.2 Obama (Was 53-45 McCain)
OH-06 (teal) - 50.3 Obama, 47.4 McCain (Was 50-48 McCain)
OH-07 (grey) - 60.7 McCain, 37.3 Obama (Was 54-45 McCain)
OH-08 (light purple) - 67.1 McCain, 31.8 Obama (Was 60-38 McCain)
OH-09 (sky blue) - 59.8 Obama, 38.5 McCain (Was 62-36 Obama)
OH-10 (light green Cuyahoga/Lorain) - 57.6 Obama, 41.0 McCain (Was 59-39 Obama)
OH-11 (magenta) - 83.5 Obama, 15.7 McCain, 50.9% black VAP (Was 85-14 Obama)
OH-12 (light purple Columbus) - 52.5 Obama, 45.8 McCain (Was 53-46 Obama)
OH-13 (pink) - 57.7 Obama, 40.7 McCain (Was 57-42 Obama)
OH-14 (brown) - 58.5 Obama, 39.5 McCain (OH-14 was 49-49 McCain, OH-17 was 62-36 Obama)
OH-15 (orange) - 61.1 Obama, 37.5 McCain (Was 54-45 Obama)
OH-16 (light green) - 56.2 McCain, 41.7 Obama (Was 50-48 McCain)

I would expect OH-01, 09, 10, 11, 13, 14, and 15 to be safe Dem, OH-06 and 12 to be swing districts, and OH-02, 04, 05, 07, 08, and 16 to be safe Republican. So, 8-6-2. Maybe 8-5-3 if you think OH-05 would be a swing district.

Surely OH-09 can be unpacked a bit to improve Democratic chances in OH-05.



OH-05: 49.6% Obama, 48.7% McCain
OH-09: 55.4% Obama, 42.9% McCain

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Jim Jordan is making redistricting easy for the Ohio GOP.

http://www.dispatch.com/live/content/local_news/stories/2011/07/28/payback-coming.html

U.S. Rep. Jim Jordan's open defiance of Speaker John Boehner's efforts to solve the debt-ceiling crisis could cost the Urbana Republican his safe seat in next year's election.

Two Republican sources deeply involved in configuring new Ohio congressional districts confirmed to The Dispatch today that Jordan's disloyalty to Boehner has put him in jeopardy of being zeroed out of a district.

The chairman of the Republican Study Committee? Sounds like a reasonable target to me!

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Jim Jordan is making redistricting easy for the Ohio GOP.

http://www.dispatch.com/live/content/local_news/stories/2011/07/28/payback-coming.html

U.S. Rep. Jim Jordan's open defiance of Speaker John Boehner's efforts to solve the debt-ceiling crisis could cost the Urbana Republican his safe seat in next year's election.

Two Republican sources deeply involved in configuring new Ohio congressional districts confirmed to The Dispatch today that Jordan's disloyalty to Boehner has put him in jeopardy of being zeroed out of a district.

If they could find a way to lump Jordan and Schmidt together into a district that would be a fun one to watch.

That won't happen. Turner and Austria are in the way.

Of course, it's very easy to give Jordan the ultimate "f--- you" by putting him in Boehner's district.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Jim Jordan is making redistricting easy for the Ohio GOP.

http://www.dispatch.com/live/content/local_news/stories/2011/07/28/payback-coming.html

U.S. Rep. Jim Jordan's open defiance of Speaker John Boehner's efforts to solve the debt-ceiling crisis could cost the Urbana Republican his safe seat in next year's election.

Two Republican sources deeply involved in configuring new Ohio congressional districts confirmed to The Dispatch today that Jordan's disloyalty to Boehner has put him in jeopardy of being zeroed out of a district.

If they could find a way to lump Jordan and Schmidt together into a district that would be a fun one to watch.

That won't happen. Turner and Austria are in the way.

Of course, it's very easy to give Jordan the ultimate "f--- you" by putting him in Boehner's district.

That assumes Jordan doesn't beat Boehner. That is just an assumption on your part.

I have to take issue with the rhetoric of "open defiance." Jim Jordan  was elected to represent the folks in the 4th district. He took an oath of loyality to the Constitution of the United States of America. He did not swear an oath to a political party, or its officiers.

While it is, of course, possible that Jordan can beat Boehner, I consider that possibility very remote. The plan that draws Jordan into Boehner's district would carve up the existing 4th. The 8th would probably only absorb Jordan's home county of Champaign, while the rest of the district would be carved up among Latta, Stivers, Tiberi,  and possibly even Renacci. This means that Boehner's base would remain intact. Also, the NRCC would undoubtedly support the Speaker over the thorn in the Speaker's side.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

If you're trying to see what will happen with only one Democratic seat eliminated, then why are you still trying to eliminate both Sutton and Kucinich? It makes more sense to give Sutton a Democratic district based in Western Cuyahoga and Summit. Failure to do so will only weaken the freshman Renacci by forcing his district into the Cleveland suburbs.

Torie,

I would try to split South East Ohio a bit more.  The PVI's there are very deceptive.

I also agree with this. Remember that the 6th was a throwaway district for Strickland.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Eastern Ohio looks pretty good to me. The Pubbie pawns in the west need to be moved around, but that is just cleanup work. OH-06 was troublesome, and required a gerrymander of Jefferson County to get the McCain percentage up to where I wanted it. 

          McCain  %

OH-11  14.8%
OH-15  29.1%
Oh-09  31.9%
OH-13  33.6%
OH-14  49.1%
OH-06  50.1%
OH-16  50.3%
OH-10  54.5%

According to this article, Johnson moved from Poland (Mahoning County) to Marietta (Washington County). You should take this into account.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Here's my disgusting gerrymander that shores up LaTourette's district by packing his Dems in with Kucinich. Sutton gets screwed by being put in either Renacci's or Fudge's district, depending on exactly where in Copley she lives.



OH-10 (Yellow): 58.9% Obama
OH-11 (Green): 51.7% VAP Black.
OH-14 (Bronze): 51.5% McCain
OH-16 (Gray): 53.5% McCain
(Formerly) OH-17 (Purple): 61.1% Obama

The Republican loser is either Johnson or Gibbs, whoever loses the primary in this district:



OH-6 (Cyan): 52.1% McCain

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Yikes! After all that LaTourette is still only 51.5% McCain! I think this shows the Republicans ought to draw OH-10 and OH-11 and then just put OH-14 however it fits without absorbing any really Democratic areas around the edges. Just give him R+3 to R+4 and be done with it.

After fiddling with the lines a bit more, I've improved it by trading Kent and Ravenna to Ryan's district in exchange for some more marginal territory.



OH-14 (Bronze): 52.6% McCain
(Former) OH-17 (Purple): 62.6% Obama

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Side by side comparison:



Looks like we have a new winner!

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Side by side comparison:

Looks like we have a new winner!

Most of the ugliness in Illinois's map is not visible at the state-wide scale.  Zoom into the Chicago area and then put up the comparison again. 

My comment stands.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Map apparently passed the House.

Aren't they embarrassed?

These are Ohio House Republicans we're talking about here. They have no shame.