US House Redistricting: Ohio

[TJ in Oregon]

I think the Republicans can do a 13-3 map. Columbus can be easily handled by splitting it in four with Jim Jordan also coming in. His district is currently R+15, so there is no reason other than a court order why the Republicans would add a Democratic seat in Columbus. There is no way to make both Stivers and Tiberi completely safe, but they should both have a better than 50/50 chance of winning re-election if the seats are drawn properly. Maybe a lawsuit will prevent them from cutting Columbus into 4, though nothing has stopped them from cutting into 3, so they may as well try.

The tricky part is the west side of Cleveland because to get a 13-3 map the only remotely feasible thing to do is cut up the 10th and 13th and run Renacci up into the west side of Cleveland. All of the very Democratic parts of the 10th would need to be added to the 11th, which will need alot more people anyways. Akron should be added to the Youngstown district and Lorain and Elyria should be added to the Toledo district. By selecting the right parts of Cuyahoga County you can get down to 54% in that part of the new Renacci district alone and down to 52% (PVR R+1) by adding Medina county and the right parts of Lorain County. This is essentially a toss-up between Renacci and Kucinich, but it wouldn't really help any other districts very much not to try this.

[TJ in Oregon]

The only way to keep OH 11 majority black is to attach inner-city Akron to it via I-77 or the Cuyahoga River. No matter what you do, you will have to append some white areas to it because the 11th is so badly underpopulated. Once the census comes out, draw the 11th into Akron to get 50% + 1 VAP black and still absorb as much of the West side as possible. You should be able to get all of Cleveland except the 18th and 19th wards, which are only about 55% Obama. The Akron connection would be erose, but you have to do that to get to 50% + 1 anyways. There aren't enough black people just in Cuyahoga County for an entire district. The 10th is overwhelmingly white, but so are the surrounding parts of the 13th and 14th. The 11th needs so many people that it's hard to imagine it not picking up more of the west side.

[TJ in Oregon]

One thing to keep in mind when drawing anything in the city of Cleveland is that the wards and precincts have been renumbered since 2008. The area Torie refered to as "Mordor" just north of Parma is really not a 80%+ Democratic area like the precinct results and a precinct map might suggest because this area changed wards. In 2008 results it is wards 15 and 16 (NOT 13!) and about 60% Obama at most. The same thing happens in the far west end of the city (wards 20 and 21 instead of 19).

The most Republican parts of the City of Cleveland are definitely not along the lake in the northeast corner where Voinovich lives. Those areas (the Collinwood neighborhood) are 70%+ black and about 90% Obama. Conveniently for the redistricting, the most Republican parts  of Cleveland are in the area just north of Parma and on the far west end of the city along the Rocky River.

In addition you could shave more of the eastern suburbs off the 11th as well and give them to the 14th. Lyndhurst, Pepper Pike, the northern half of Beechwood, the eastern half of University Heights and the southeastern part of South Euclid are only 50-60% Obama areas. I'd worry less about making LaTourette safe than any of the other Republican incumbents because he has the label of being moderate and tends to attract some Democratic support. Obviously he has to have a reasonable district to win reelection but it doesn't need to be any better than R+0 or D+1.

[TJ in Oregon]

Betty Sutton lives in Copley Township on Royal Rock Road (in Copley Township Precint O on Dave's App), just west of Akron and just SE of where route 77 and route 21 meet. She is currently in the green district but moving her to the yellow one would only require moving a couple precincts. I'm not sure who would win a primary between her and Ryan now that the yellow district will be more an Akron/Canton district than a Youngstown one. I would doubt she'd like the green district very much because it has neither Akron nor Lorain in it but she could always move there if she thinks she can't beat Ryan in a primary. The Alliance/Canton arm of the yellow district would also have the added bonus of putting former Democratic Rep. John Boccieri in it as well. Kucinich would have the choose between the Toledo district and the green one, which means he's probably done either way since I highly doubt he'd beat Kaptur in a primary. Kucinich is the weakest incumbent Democrat in Ohio. He only got 53% of the vote in 2010 in his old district and I'd bet there are plenty of Cuyahoga County Democrats who'd rather have Kaptur.

[TJ in Oregon]

And then we have Mr. Boehner in OH-08. He starts out with a GOP PVI of 15%. Losing those Dem precincts in Montgomery, probably pushes it up to 16%, maybe a tad higher. But he loses about 25 or so very uber GOP precincts in Mercer (his share of the county was about 2/3 and the whole county went 72% for McCain (I think it is heavily Mennonite, and I wish JS were here to confirm that), so maybe he is down close to 13-14% or so.

Mercer County (and Putnam County) was settled by German Catholic immigrants, so it is very Catholic (like 70% or so) not Mennonite. You might not think of Catholics as a Republican group but German Catholics in rural parts of NW Ohio vote pretty much the same as the Mennonites.

[TJ in Oregon]

It's important to keep in mind what type of Democrat might win one of the 13 R districts when we are discussing this type of thing. When the House was debating the healthcare bill and Ohio had 10 Democratic and 8 Republican congressmen, 5 (6 if you count Kucinich) of those 10 gave the Democratic Leadership quite a headache holding out until the 11th hour. Driehaus, Boccieri, Wilson, Space, and Kaptur refused to say how they would vote until the very end. Kaptur even waited until an hour before the vote. All of them ended up voting for it but they certainly did major damage to the Democrats by making a scene. Other than Kaptur, the rest of these names give you a good picture of the type of Democrat who would win most of the 13 "R" districts if things went horribly wrong for the Republicans.

Also notice the absence of the other Democrat who lost reelection, Mary Jo Kilroy of Columbus. When the map is drawn it is more important to keep the Democrats out of Columbus than Cincinnati or SE Ohio or the Canton/Medina area because in all likelihood a Democratic rep from Columbus will be a straight-down-the-line liberal. I'd certainly like to see a 13-3 map hold, but if Charlie Wilson or some other Appalachan Democrat takes out Johnson or Gibbs it would still be better for the Republicans than a Democrat in Columbus.

A couple months ago, I had tried to draw an Ohio map to preserve all incumbent Republicans (though I lacked precinct data for everything other than Cuyahoga County so it was a rough guess at best) and wound up with something rather similar to what Torie is doing. Obviously I did a few things different, like I put Athens County in Schmidt’s district and I certainly did not take as much care around Cleveland to make OH 16 a true Republican district rather than a slightly lean R. But when it comes down to it, I think some close variation to what Torie is drawing is the best possible map for the Ohio Republican Party.

[TJ in Oregon]

Look at it district by district:
Cincinnati Area:
1. Chabot- all you can do is switch which parts of Hamilton County you take in since Schmidt and Boehner block you from going east or northeast. You don’t want to go straight north either because the next town you cross in Butler County is the college town of Oxford. I don’t have precinct data, but I doubt that would help Chabot.

2. Schmidt- you need to swallow up as many Democratic areas as you can with this district to make the rest of the state easier. You can’t really go west or north so you have to go east. Like I said before, I drew Athens into this district but the way Torie drew it is fine. You give Schmidt a normally safe district and if she can’t hold it that’s her problem. I can’t imagine what sort of Democrat could hold this seat for more than one term anyways.

3. Turner- his district stays pretty much the same and he will be set until he wants to retire. As long as you draw something reasonable (no Columbus to Springfield to Dayton to Cincinnati mess) the Republicans should still win an open seat.

8. Boehner- try to keep this the most heavily Republican district in the state but yet a little less excessively so than it is now. Giving him Clark County and keeping most of it the same is a good idea. I originally gave him more of Dayton but that really doesn’t help since Columbus is where we want the extra Republican support. Clark is much better.

[TJ in Oregon]

Cleveland:
11. Fudge- pack district, run it to Akron, take as many Dems as possible

10. Kucinich- eliminate his district by running Renacci up from Medina County. A lot of people don’t like this but I don’t really see any other way to make a 13-3 map. I guess you could run Gibbs or Latta in instead but that would just make it unnecessarily ugly.

13. Sutton- eliminate her too for the same reasons as Kucinich though her district is easier to get rid of. Lorain goes to Kaptur and the Democratic part of Akron is split into Fudge and Ryan

14. LaTourette- try not to change it too much since LaTourette is popular and completely surrounded by overwhelmingly Democratic areas. Other than tinkering around with specific precincts there isn’t much to do here.

17. Ryan- I put just Akron and Youngstown here but adding in Canton and Alliance is even better. The way Torie drew it, Ryan, Sutton, and Boccieri can all have a fun 3-way primary. Maybe former rep Jim Traficant can join in now that he’s out of prison (if he ever wants to be a Democrat again). It seems like every other idea I see on here does something weird like throw in Ashtabula County or some random swath of rural land. Why would the Republicans do that? My only concern with Torie’s map is that the lines may be too erose looking. If that’s the case, Canton may have to go and if it does, better some coin-flip Appalachian Dem than a liberal city Dem.

16. Renacci- run this up all the way to the west side of Cleveland and be careful exactly who you put in it. When I first drew this I was much less ambitious than Torie and without the 9th district coming in, made it about 52-53% Obama without a whole lot of crazy-looking lines. But this really is the key part of a 13-3 map and by far the most sensitive to draw as it requires a Republican to represent a large chunk of Cuyahoga County and even part of the city of Cleveland. It’s a tall order but there really is no other way to protect all the Republican incumbents. If you would give up that idea, you could do just about anything with this district.

[TJ in Oregon]

Southeast:
6. Johnson- it’s a shame he lives so close to Youngstown. When I tried this, I gave him all the southeast instead of Stark County (with I gave to Gibbs) but whyat Torie drew is probably better because Johnson is harder to protect than Gibbs because Gibbs’s home is in the middle of some very, very Republican areas.

18. Gibbs- I originally gave him most of Renacci’s current district (including Stark County) but the interior Southeast will work as well. I gave Athens to Schmidt so giving it to Gibbs is a little different. Otherwise, all you can really do is try to make Gibbs and Johnson about equally safe and hope for the best.

[TJ in Oregon]

Toledo:
9. Kaptur- shave down Toledo as much as possible so she can take as much of Lorain/Elyria/Cleveland? as possible. I originally thought the Republicans would check the gerrymander at the Lorain/Cuyahoga County line but clearly going to Cleveland is a better plan.

5. Latta- this takes all the land leftover from everywhere else and should be fairly safe unless you do something crazy like give him inner-city Toledo or Lorain or Columbus.

[TJ in Oregon]

Columbus:
4. Jordan- run this one straight into Columbus to crack it. I had no precinct data, so I just guessed he would get 219,000 people who vote 66% Obama (I tried to give him more of the black areas since the rest of his district is safer). I also think (though I am not totally sure) that the southern part of Franklin County is more heavily Democratic than the northern part.

15. Stivers- I think he’ll end up with most of Delaware County because everything will have to expand to the northeast. Other than that I’m not really sure. I think I guessed his Franklin County share would be about 58% Obama.

7. Austria- give him a little more of Columbus otherwise the same same. I guessed his Franklin County part would be about 64% Obama.

12. Tiberi- he’ll have to gain some part of Knox, Morrow, Richland, and Ashland counties to make his seat safer.

I realize my Columbus thoughts are pretty much useless and must admit I know practically nothing about the geography of that city.

[TJ in Oregon]

In the 2006 Senate race (Athens is split into two Congressional Districts on the current map so the Senate is easier to look at), Sherrod Brown (D) won Athens County 70%-30% and won Ohio 56%-44%, so 14 points more Democratic than the entire state.

In the 2010 Senate race, Lee Fisher (D) carried Athens County 59%-35% (not sure who the other 6% voted for) but went on to lose the state 57-39% to Rob Portman, so 20 points more Democratic than the entire state (and 22 points less Republican).

As far as I can tell the only way time the Repubicans kept Athens reasonably close was in the 2000 presidential election when Gore only won 52-38% because 7% voted for Ralph Nader.

Though this is probably a moot point because the 10th district as Torie drew is probably Republican enough to safely re-elect Bob Gibbs anyways. And I have a hard time seeing the Dems having a major resurgence in that part of the state (think West Virginia) anytime soon barring some kind of scandal.

[TJ in Oregon]

Ohio is finally finished. 

Hooray! This is amazing and exactly what I hope the Ohio Republicans do. Every incumbent Republican is safe.

My only concerns are that it might look too gerrymandered in the 9th district's snake into Cleveland and the Canton/Alliance leg of the Youngstown district. But since when has appearance really mattered? It's even pretty good from a communities of interest standpoint in case people care about that (at least in NE OH, Columbus not so much but it already is that way so it's nothing new).

But all in all, this is beautiful, absolutely beautiful!

[TJ in Oregon]

My guess as to why NW Ohio swung so heavily toward Obama is that I recall the unemployment rate increasing much, much more in that part of the state when the economy crashed in 2008. The NW corner of the state has a lot of industrial towns (think Elkhart, Indiana) and I remember the unemployment rate being over 15% in a lot of areas. While there are other areas of the state more impoverished, the NW was better to begin with and the economic decline was more noticeable.

Though I am a college student in Cleveland, I am orginally from NW Ohio (Erie County actually). I'd describe most of the people there as economically liberal and socially conservative. As long as things are going well, they will vote based on social issues but when hit in the pocketbook, especially when the Republicans were in charge, fiscal concerns take over and they vote for the Democrats. I think a lot of people were (and still are) struggling to make ends meet and when Obama promised change they wanted to give him a chance. Now the question is whether or not they will think he deserves a second chance.

[TJ in Oregon]

I decided to draw my own 13-3 map of Ohio. I kept Kaptur out of Cuyahoga County because drawing her in might be too much. Renacci’s district can probably be cleaned up a little more on its western side without changing much. The eastern edge is a battle between going off of presidential results and going off of what would hurt Kucinich more because that area on the far west edge of Cleveland has about 8 or 9 precincts under 60% Obama but is also the neighborhood Kucinich grew up in. Lakewood is a wealthier Democratic area that supported Obama with closer to 70% but Kucinich did very poor.

The Ohio Republicans really need a solid candidate from SE Ohio because one of the main questions when drawing this is what to do with that part of the state so you don’t have any Dayton-to-Youngstown (or similar) messes. I thought the best thing to do was to give as much of that territory as possible to Jean Schmidt and completely take her out of Hamilton County. As a result, Boehner comes in for a share of the Cincy crack and he’s only at R+10. I hope that’s safe enough because doing this cleans up a lot of other stuff.

1.   Dark Green (Chabot R-Cincinnati): McCain 51.7- Obama 47.2 R+6
2.   Gold (Schmidt R-Loveland): McCain 53.8- Obama 44.0 R+9
3.   Slate Green (Turner R-Dayton): McCain 50.1- Obama 48.4 R+4
4.   Purple (Jordan R-Urbana): McCain 53.1-Obama 45.1 R+8
5.   Red (Latta R-Bowling Green): McCain 52.1-Obama 45.9 R+7
6.   Dark Teal (Johnson R-Poland, also Sutton D-Copley): McCain 50.6-Obama 47.6 R+5
7.   Gray (Austria R-Beavercreek): McCain 51.4-Obama 47.1 R+6
8.   Cornflower Blue (Boehner R-West Chester): McCain 55.8-Obama 43.0 R+10
9.   Cyan (Kaptur D-Toledo): Obama 64.5-McCain 33.9 D+12 
10.   Lime Green (Renacci R-Wadsworth, also Kucinich D-Cleveland): Obama 50.1-McCain 48.6 R+3
11.   Yellow (Fudge D-Warrensville Heights): Obama 85.1-McCain 14.1 D+32
12.   Brown (Tiberi R-Galena): McCain 50.0-Obama 48.5 R+4
13.   Black (Gibbs R-Lakeland): McCain 52.6-Obama 45.0 R+7
14.   Tan (LaTourette R-Bainbridge Township): Obama 49.5-McCain 49.0 R+3
15.   Orange (Stivers R-Columbus): McCain 51.3-Obama 47.1 R+6
16.   Navy Blue (Ryan D-Niles): Obama 65.4-McCain 32.4 D+13

I am also considering trying to draw one that packs Columbus and cracks Toledo.

[TJ in Oregon]

Here’s my Toledo crack. It came out pretty nice with the exception of Steve Austria’s district which looks awful. It’s hard to cover the NW with a district less considering you need at least two of the four-way Columbus split and none are really near Toledo. By packing Columbus, Tiberi can now crack Canton and make Johnson safer. I am a little concerned about Gibbs too since I had to use him for the cracking of Lorain County. I decided to take the liberty of connecting the Columbus pack to Springfield, Yellow Springs, and Urbana even though Austria should be safe without it. I have to give him something for dealing with this mess.

1.   Dark Green (Chabot R-Cincinnati): McCain 51.7- Obama 47.2 R+6
2.   Gold (Schmidt R-Loveland): McCain 53.7- Obama 44.1 R+8
3.   Slate Green (Turner R-Dayton): McCain 50.1- Obama 48.4 R+4
4.   Purple (Jordan R-Urbana, also Kaptur D-Toledo (maybe in District 5)): McCain 52.7-Obama 45.5 R+7
5.   Red (Latta R-Bowling Green): McCain 50.2-Obama 48.0  R+5
6.   Dark Teal (Johnson R-Poland): McCain 51.1-Obama 46.9  R+6
7.   Gray (Austria R-Beavercreek): McCain 55.4-Obama 42.8 R+10
8.   Cornflower Blue (Boehner R-West Chester): McCain 55.8-Obama 43.0 R+10
9.   Cyan (Open D): Obama 71.1-McCain 27.3 D+18 
10.   Lime Green (Renacci R-Wadsworth, also Kucinich D-Cleveland): Obama 50.1-McCain 48.6 R+3
11.   Yellow (Fudge D-Warrensville Heights): Obama 85.1-McCain 14.1 D+32
12.   Brown (Tiberi R-Galena): McCain 51.6-Obama 46.4  R+6
13.   Black (Gibbs R-Lakeland): McCain 49.6-Obama 48.4  R+4
14.   Tan (LaTourette R-Bainbridge Township): Obama 49.5-McCain 49.0 R+3
15.   Orange (Stivers R-Columbus): McCain 55.0-Obama 45.0 R+9
16.   Navy Blue (Ryan D-Niles, also Sutton D-Copley): Obama 63.9-McCain 34.2 D+11

[TJ in Oregon]

I decided to try and make a ‘safe’ 11-1-4 map, eliminating Jean Schmidt and forcing Stivers to run for the Senate to pack Columbus. I was originally trying for 11-5, but you’d pretty much have to gerrymander it in Kucinich’s favor to keep him and making his seat more Democratic really doesn’t help any of the Republicans. All it would really do is make Fudge’s seat D+30 instead of D+32. I also really tried to draw neat lines and keep counties whole (except the VRA district because you can’t). I think this map is much less gerrymandered than the current one and drawn less for incumbents.


1.   Dark Green (Steve Chabot R-Cincinnati): McCain 50.7- Obama 48.2 R+5

Jean Schmidt (R-Loveland) also lives here but I can’t imagine her winning a primary. Chabot should be safe here for the next decade since he loses a third or so of the black parts of Cincinnati to Boehner. The PVI is a little understated here because Obama did better than normal for a Democrat in Cincinnati.

2.   Gold (Open D-Columbus):  Obama 69.3-McCain 29.1 D+17

Here’s the Columbus pack instead of Schmidt’s old district. Steve Stivers (R-Columbus) probably lives here but he can never win this district. He’ll either need to challenge Jim Jordan in OH-4 or Pat Tiberi in OH-15 or run for the Senate. Mary Jo Kilroy would have a good chance of taking back this seat.

3.   Brown (Mike Turner R-Dayton): McCain 51.7- Obama 46.8 R+6

Mike Turner would be very safe here and it makes the whole southwest corner of the state fit pretty neatly along county lines. The PVI is a little low but Turner will do better with inner-city Dayton than any other Republican. This should be Likely R even if Turner retires.
 
4.   Electric Blue (Jim Jordan R-Urbana): McCain 58.1- Obama 40.1 R+13

Stivers may try to run here instead of running for Senate, though Jordan has been listed as a possible Senate candidate so perhaps this might persuade him. Unfortunately, this seat covers a lot of new territory but it isn’t hideous looking like OH-4 on most of these maps. It should be Safe R barring a major scandal.

5.   Red (Bob Latta R-Bowling Green): McCain 58.6- Obama 39.6 R+13

Latta would like this district a lot and it makes him even safer than he already is.

6.   Dark Teal (Bill Johnson R-Poland): McCain 50.9- Obama 46.9 R+6

This is one of the hardest districts to make safe because there just aren’t any dependably Republican areas around. It’s safer than the current district at least.

7.   Gray (Steve Austria R-Beavercreek): McCain 54.8- Obama 43.2 R+9

Austria would have to cover a lot of new territory but someone has to take the far southern part of the state and it should be a pretty safe district for him still. The western section of the Ohio river is much more dependably Republican than the eastern section. He also gets all of Athens except Coolville (which is the Republican part) to help Johnson.

8.   Cornflower Blue (John Boehner R-West Chester): 55.4- Obama 43.4 R+10

This is one of the potential problems with this map for the Republicans because Boehner may demand a safer district or to keep more of his old territory, although this is centered more around his home and the areas he grew up in. The main purpose here is to help secure Chabot without jeopardizing Boehner. This is also much more compact than the old district and stays in one metropolitan area.

9.   Cyan (Marcy Kaptur D-Toledo): Obama 63.7-McCain 34.7 D+11

The only major changes are that Kaptur now has northern Lorain County instead of southern Lorain County and that she loses some outer Toledo suburbs due to population changes. Ohio’s current longest serving US Representative can stay for 10 more years if she wants to.

10.   Lime Green (Dennis Kucinich D-Cleveland): Obama 51.8-McCain 46.8 R+2

This is the toss-up seat though Kucinich will likely lose if he ran here. I’d expect former Cuyahoga County Republican chairman Rob Frost to run for this seat and win against Kucinich. The local press is already printing articles about it and we don’t even have a map yet. However, this seat could easily become Dem later in the decade if the Republicans have a bad year and the Dem isn’t Kucinich. I would, however, expect Kucinich to try and run here because this map is much more favorable to him than any of the others being discussed.

11.   Yellow (Marcia Fudge D-Warrensville Heights): Obama 85.3-McCain 14.0 D+32, 51.1% VAP black, VRA black

Since there aren’t enough blacks in Cleveland for a district and it needs the tail through the Cuyahoga Valley National Park to inner city Akron to be VRA compliant, this will be the ugliest shaped district in the state. However, the speaker of the Ohio House William Batchelder has told all the local black leaders that this district will be drawn in something similar to this form. Fudge could probably murder someone and still get re-elected here (though Congresswoman Fudge is generally a quiet, responsible person who wouldn’t do something crazy anyway). I also live here currently.

12.   Navy Blue (Tim Ryan D-Niles, also Betty Sutton D-Copley): Obama 62.4-McCain 35.7 D+10

Ryan would win the primary and probably the generally election fairly easily unless something crazy happens like Jim Trafficant making a comeback for his old seat as an independent, splitting the Democratic vote. It probably won’t happen but I wouldn’t put anything past the Youngstown Democrats. This district is Safe Dem as it stands now, but could start to drift toward competitiveness toward the end of the decade once no one is left living in Youngstown and Warren.

13.    Pink (Jim Renacci R-Wadsworth): McCain 50.6-Obama 47.5 R+5

Renacci should love this map since he keeps most of his old territory, loses inner-city Akron and gains more of heavily GOP Ashland County.

14.   Tan (Steve LaTourette R-Bainbridge Township): Obama 49.4-McCain 49.1 R+3

There’s really not much you can do to make this district safer because it is trapped by Cleveland, Akron, and Youngstown. LaTourette will be safe here until he retires but it would be lean GOP after that.
 
15.   Maroon (Pat Tiberi R-Galena): McCain 54.9-Obama 43.7  R+9

Biting the bullet on a Columbus pack will make this safe. This area is trending toward the Democrats so a high PVI is necessary for 2020 if Tiberi retires before then. There is also a chance Stivers would try to run here.

16.    Black (Gibbs R-Lakeland): McCain 54.8-Obama 42.9  R+10

Gibbs would be quite safe here even though it has a lot of new territory.

[TJ in Oregon]

I have trouble believing the Republicans will draw the lines for the Youngstown district quite that erose. I've managed to get to 63.4% Obama looking pretty compact so I don't think the GOP will really go that far for a point or two. I also have trouble beliving they will draw part of Cleveland into the Toledo district to make OH-10 R+4 instead of R+3. Of course this could be the difference in an election, but I am doubting they'll do it when they can draw something like this in northeast Ohio instead and still be favored in the same districts:



The green is 50.0-48.7 Obama and the tan is 49.8-48.6 Obama (not that you can do a whole lot here anyway). The yellow is 85.0-14.2 Obama and the navy blue is 63.4-37.4 (Obama).

I also think even if Tiberi has a suburban appeal, drawing northeastern Lorain County into a Columbus seat is a community of interest nightmare. I'd prefer giving him Canton or Mansfield... or pretty much anywhere else.

[TJ in Oregon]

I'd prefer Latta over Jordan or Tiberi, and he would be fine for the rural southern part of Lorain County or anything west of Lorain/Elyria. Avon and Avon Lake need to be with the Cleveland Republican district because those areas are an extension of the Bay/Westlake/ Rocky River suburbs and would be a terrible fit for any of them. Renacci (or whatever Republican ends up with that seat; I have some doubts it will be Renacci for very long and Cuyahoga County Republican Chair Rob Frost may primary him...but that won't change the national politics much if any) would be much better. If not, give them to Kaptur because any non-Northeast Ohio Republican is going to underperform badly.

If Dave's App is correct, then my numbers for OH-16 (I am assuming you mean the green one) are correct and they look right to me. The areas of this seat in Lorain and Summit Counties are very Republican and I've spent quite a bit of time carefully selecting the right precincts from Cleveland to give to Renacci. The cutoff is around 67 or 68% Obama. Most of the ugliness of bringing OH-9 in here just removes a bunch of 60% ish precincts and replaces them with 45% ish precincts. The difference can almost be made up just by going into Lorain and Summit.

I did the same on the east side and the chunk of Beachwood, Lyndhurst, South Euclid, and University Heights LaTourette would get is truthfully not much different than the areas of Summit, Portage, and Trumbull Counties that he’d get more of if he didn’t pick up that area. This is ~10 or so precincts that are 60% Obama instead of 55% Obama. It does split more municipal lines, but it makes the map look much cleaner. It also makes it easier to get OH-11 to 50% VAP black, and thus it can take more of the west side and less of Akron. This is a high SES area so I also expect LaTourette to do much better than McCain.

[TJ in Oregon]

The problem is that the Republicans really need to give the Democrats a seat in Columbus to have a safe map. If they keep Sutton or Kucinich they can't do that without eliminating two Republicans. Plus, it really doesn't help any of their incumbents to keep either Sutton or Kucinich. Clearly the west side of Cleveland isn't Renacci's idea district, but would it be better to combine him with Gibbs and make them fight it out in a primary? There just aren't enough Republican seats to go around without drawing Renacci into Kucinich's seat and preserving Kucinich doesn't help any of their other incumbents any. There's no reason at all why the Republicans should draw four Democratic seats in northern Ohio. It just doesn't help anyone.

[TJ in Oregon]

Torie,

I would try to split South East Ohio a bit more.  The PVI's there are very deceptive.

I don't think that's the OH-6 he intends to draw. I think that's the current one.

[TJ in Oregon]

With homage to the Land Ordinance of 1785 and the Northwest Ordinance of 1787.

I have to explain the concept of a township to more people to an impressively large number of people from other parts of the country who seem to think it means a variety of different things. Every time someone asks me where I'm from, I always have to think about whether or not it is worth naming the township I grew up in and explaining it, or just saying I'm from Sandusky and calling it a day.

[TJ in Oregon]

If the Ohio GOP wants to continue splitting Columbus rather than packing it, they really need to split it four ways this time because three has already cost them the Kilroy/Stivers seat and Tiberi's is only safe if he's the incumbent and even with him, there's a limit which may be approached as we move toward 2020. Austria can handle a little more of Columbus than he currently has, but not nearly enough to stall the GOP's demographic problems in Columbus. To make it worse, the Columbus area is the fastest growing in the state. It really needs to either be packed or split four ways.

[TJ in Oregon]

Certainly very logical. That plan though would likely require that the black district stay in Cuyahoga.

Not necesarily, you can get OH-10 to about R+3.4 or so with the black district 50.1% VAP going to Akron and without OH-9 coming into Cuyahoga. The following is R+3.36 using 2008 presidential numbers:



Here's the corresponding OH-11:



It looks hideous, but don't all the VRA OH-11s?

[TJ in Oregon]

No, if the GOP puts Renacci in Kucinich's seat, Gibbs and Johnson would each get their own. The only problem with this is that Renacci might not be a perfect fit for Cleveland.