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  Past Election What-ifs (US) (Moderators: Let the hero born of woman crush the IDP with his heel, Apocrypha)
  1968: Humphrey vs. Reagan
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Author Topic: 1968: Humphrey vs. Reagan  (Read 6076 times)
tpfkaw
wormyguy
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« on: September 16, 2010, 06:31:18 pm »
« edited: September 16, 2010, 06:34:03 pm by wormyguy »

Just thought I'd try out this scenario on President Elect* (Reagan has a running mate from OH): the results were somewhat surprising:

Reagan 53, Humphrey 47

Reagan 433, Humphrey 105



Three-way with George Wallace:

Reagan 50, Humphrey 45, Wallace 5

Reagan 403, Humphrey 125, Wallace 10



Three-way with Eugene McCarthy (running mate from SD Wink):

Reagan 54, Humphrey 41, McCarthy 5

Reagan 513, Humphrey 25



*Still IMHO the best presidential election simulator out there.
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Apocrypha
Dallasfan65
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« Reply #1 on: September 16, 2010, 06:40:28 pm »

Who was the RM from Ohio? James Rhodes?
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tpfkaw
wormyguy
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« Reply #2 on: September 16, 2010, 06:42:32 pm »

I had no idea who Reagan would pick as a running mate in 1968. I figured he'd pick a midwesterner.
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Uncle Albert/Admiral Halsey
hantheguitarman
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« Reply #3 on: September 16, 2010, 06:49:55 pm »

I had no idea who Reagan would pick as a running mate in 1968. I figured he'd pick a midwesterner.

I'd think Reagan would have to choose a moderate running mate to ease tensions within the party that had festered in 1968. Someone like John Volpe, William Scranton, Margaret Chase Smith, or even Nelson Rockefeller.
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Apocrypha
Dallasfan65
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« Reply #4 on: September 16, 2010, 06:50:15 pm »

John Volpe, James Rhodes, John Sherman Cooper, would all be good choices - but Reagan might pick somebody more low-profile. George Romney would be good - but would have too much baggage.
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Uncle Albert/Admiral Halsey
hantheguitarman
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« Reply #5 on: September 16, 2010, 07:01:14 pm »

Reagan would need someone with a lot of experience, as he'd have to convince the nation that a man with less than two years' experience as Governor is ready for the Presidency.
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Psychic Octopus
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« Reply #6 on: September 16, 2010, 07:22:39 pm »

I'm confused - did you do this scenario manually, making this your guess, or just recieve them through a simulator? Huh

I agree with Han. He would need someone very experienced as his running mate in order to win. Moderate, too. Even then, I'd make Humphrey the favorite in the race; Reagan was too conservative for the country in 1968.
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tpfkaw
wormyguy
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« Reply #7 on: September 16, 2010, 07:29:43 pm »

I ran it through the simulator.  I personally think it thinks Reagan is too strong of a candidate - it also has him winning in a landslide in '76.
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Uncle Albert/Admiral Halsey
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« Reply #8 on: September 16, 2010, 07:44:37 pm »

Reagan was a good politician though. He'd be able to make his conservatism marketable, and could easily woo voters to vote for him. He would not make Goldwaterite mistakes like criticizing Social Security in Florida or proposing to sell the TVA in Tennessee. That being said, I think he'd win by a closer margin than Nixon. Here's a close election with Wallace in the picture.


Ronald Reagan (R-CA)/John Volpe (R-MA): 289 EV
Hubert Humphrey (D-MN)/Edmund Muskie (D-ME): 204 EV
George Wallace (AI-AL)/Curtis LeMay (AI-CA)

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Dr. Cynic
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« Reply #9 on: September 16, 2010, 09:34:36 pm »

I just ran in through the simulator too. Reagan is very tough to beat in the game. If you turn the war off though and put peace at 6 he can be beaten in 68
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tpfkaw
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« Reply #10 on: September 18, 2010, 01:21:46 pm »

I tried running 1964 with Reagan (NY running mate) about 20 times:  This was by far his best showing.  (The results were highly variable - in a couple he did worse than AuH20).

Johnson 50, Reagan 49

Johnson 278, Reagan 260

(AR, IA, MI, NH, TN, and VA were all very close victories for Johnson, WA and NM were very close victories for Reagan).

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When Tables Deserve To Die
The Obamanation
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« Reply #11 on: September 23, 2010, 07:02:09 pm »

Now do Reagan-Kennedy in 1960.
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Apocrypha
Dallasfan65
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« Reply #12 on: September 23, 2010, 07:09:12 pm »


Two Democrats running against eachother Huh
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When Tables Deserve To Die
The Obamanation
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« Reply #13 on: September 23, 2010, 07:33:59 pm »

Forgot he was a Democrat back then.

Reagan-Nixon.
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tpfkaw
wormyguy
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« Reply #14 on: September 23, 2010, 07:46:21 pm »

I did it anyway.

Trial 1: Kennedy 51, Reagan 48; Kennedy 342, Reagan 195

(Accidentally closed window, lost map, sorry).

Trial 2: Kennedy 53, Reagan 47; Kennedy 446, Reagan 91



Trial 3: Reagan 52, Kennedy 48; Reagan 413, Kennedy 124



Trial 3: Kennedy 52, Reagan 48; Kennedy 395, Reagan 142

Trial 4: Kennedy 50, Reagan 50 (Kennedy wins NPV by fewer than 80,000 votes!); Kennedy 280, Reagan 257



Trial 5

Reagan 50, Kennedy 49; Kennedy 276, Reagan 261 (pop vote winner loses! and by fewer than 600 votes in NV and 2000 in NM!)

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Speaker Perez
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« Reply #15 on: October 18, 2010, 06:14:06 pm »

Reagan's Conservative platform was not as popular as it is today. Even in California, he was almost recalled. Humphrey would have won.
Humphrey/Muskie
Reagan/Rhodes
Wallace/Lemay

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Yelnoc
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« Reply #16 on: October 22, 2010, 08:26:56 pm »

Reagan's Conservative platform was not as popular as it is today. Even in California, he was almost recalled. Humphrey would have won.
Humphrey/Muskie
Reagan/Rhodes
Wallace/Lemay


Why does Wallace do so much better in your scenario?
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Cath
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« Reply #17 on: October 23, 2010, 02:25:41 pm »

^^ Yeah. Reagan would be more popular in the South than Nixon, and his original plan to win in 1968 had been to court the Southern delegates away from Nixon. If he got the nomination, he woudl probably do the same thing in the general, with probably about the same or better success than Nixon.
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feeblepizza
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« Reply #18 on: October 23, 2010, 02:28:13 pm »

Reagan's Conservative platform was not as popular as it is today. Even in California, he was almost recalled. Humphrey would have won.
Humphrey/Muskie
Reagan/Rhodes
Wallace/Lemay


Why does Wallace do so much better in your scenario?

Why does Humphrey win Indiana and Reagan carry Massachusetts?
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Cath
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« Reply #19 on: October 23, 2010, 03:03:24 pm »

Reagan's Conservative platform was not as popular as it is today. Even in California, he was almost recalled. Humphrey would have won.
Humphrey/Muskie
Reagan/Rhodes
Wallace/Lemay


Why does Wallace do so much better in your scenario?

Why does Humphrey win Indiana and Reagan carry Massachusetts?

I assume you'te being sarcastic. I think you already know that on this forum, Democrats are red and Republicans are blue.
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feeblepizza
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« Reply #20 on: October 23, 2010, 09:14:12 pm »

Reagan's Conservative platform was not as popular as it is today. Even in California, he was almost recalled. Humphrey would have won.
Humphrey/Muskie
Reagan/Rhodes
Wallace/Lemay


Why does Wallace do so much better in your scenario?

Why does Humphrey win Indiana and Reagan carry Massachusetts?

I assume you'te being sarcastic. I think you already know that on this forum, Democrats are red and Republicans are blue.

No, I'm not being sarcastic. The color code at the top states that states colored in blue have been won by Humphrey, and the states colored in red have been won by Reagan.
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Cath
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« Reply #21 on: October 23, 2010, 09:19:23 pm »

Anybody wanna do a JFK/Reagan vs. Rockefeller/Romney? I know who I'd vote for.
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feeblepizza
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« Reply #22 on: October 23, 2010, 09:25:05 pm »

Anybody wanna do a JFK/Reagan vs. Rockefeller/Romney? I know who I'd vote for.

Kennedy by a million miles.
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Cath
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« Reply #23 on: October 23, 2010, 09:25:59 pm »

Anybody wanna do a JFK/Reagan vs. Rockefeller/Romney? I know who I'd vote for.

Kennedy by a million miles.

Ooooooh Yeeeaaaah.
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RIP Robert H Bork
officepark
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« Reply #24 on: October 23, 2010, 09:30:34 pm »

Anybody wanna do a JFK/Reagan vs. Rockefeller/Romney? I know who I'd vote for.

No way JFK and Reagan appear on 1 ticket.
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