Sam Spade
SamSpade
Atlas Star
Posts: 27,547
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« on: November 08, 2004, 06:21:05 PM » |
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Because Bush will not run again, it makes most of these assumptions we're making with regards to these sort of things probably wrong.
However, I would note that I personally predicted many times (as opposed to Shira's theories) that in this election that Florida would be 2-3 to the GOP side of the Bush margin in the popular vote. I thought Ohio would be 0.5% to the GOP side of the popular vote because the bad jobs economy (was 1% off there) and that Pennsylvania would be 3-4% to the Dem side of the popular vote.
As a rule, unless Franklin County in Ohio is getting more Democrat (and I don't think it is, unless this jobs thing continues to grow), Ohio will trend Republican in the future as the exurbs of Cincinnati grow and act like Kentucky and Indiana in voting patterns and Cuyahoga County and NE Ohio tends to lose population.
That's how the GOP won this election; it's how they will be successful in Ohio in the future if they can keep Franklin county under wraps.
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