Acastus
csmith476
Rookie
Posts: 40
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« on: November 09, 2004, 12:44:05 PM » |
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Vorlon,
After looking at some of these states, it seems that Nader's stronger 2000 showing relative to his showing in 2004 is skewing things a bit. For instance, Montana looks like it became relatively much more Democratic. However, Nader polled about 6% in 2000 versus 1% in 2004. Not coincidentally, Kerry did about 5 points better than Gore did in Montana. Therefore, combined with the national swing of Bush +3, it looks like MT swung much more than it did.
Is there any way to "weed out" the Nader effect in your analysis to figure out what the true swing is? I suppose you could simply add the Nader vote to the Gore vote and do the whole excercise over, though assuming that all Nader voters preferred Gore is not a good assumption. Any ideas?
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