KY: Survey USA: In a dramatic shift, Conway catches Paul

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Kentucky Senator by Survey USA on 2010-09-23

Summary: D: 47%, R: 49%, I: 0%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Tender Branson]

I was expecting this, because the district results by Braun research were indicating a tight race, not a 15-point Paul advantage.

[Eraserhead]

Wowzers.

[DrScholl]

This race looks like it's getting good. If this holds, it will be a very close result.

[Meeker]

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[SvenssonRS]

Don't get too excited, Democrats. Your chances of making any pickups this year are at absolute zero.

[Meeker]

Don't get too excited, Democrats. Your chances of making any pickups this year are at absolute zero.

Err, they're low but they certainly aren't at zero.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No, I think there is a very good chance we will lose some seats offset by some pickups.

[Eraserhead]

Don't get too excited, Democrats. Your chances of making any pickups this year are at absolute zero.

''Absolute zero''? Aren't you somebody who whines about people sounding hackish?

[Iosif]

Don't get too excited, Democrats. Your chances of making any pickups this year are at absolute zero.

''Absolute zero''? Aren't you somebody who whines about people sounding hackish?

Kids these days...

This is a weird cycle.

[Dgov]

I was expecting this, because the district results by Braun research were indicating a tight race, not a 15-point Paul advantage.

Which is funny, because the 6th District, which is the one polled, is in Eastern Kentucky where Paul has his biggest lead.

Anyway, compared to their last poll, Conway closing the gap is almost entirely turn-out based (he did pick up a few points with Democrats though).  Republicans went from 42% of the electorate to 36% (which is actually below their 37% registration numbers), Democrats went from 47% to 52%, and Liberals went up from 12 to 17.  Unless Conway has been able to create an unprecedented turnout operation in the last 3 weeks, this is probably an outlier.

Which, seeing as it still shows Conway losing, is not good for him.  Not terrible, but the Democrats are still set to lose this one in November.

[Associate Justice PiT]

I was expecting this, because the district results by Braun research were indicating a tight race, not a 15-point Paul advantage.

Which is funny, because the 6th District, which is the one polled, is in Eastern Kentucky where Paul has his biggest lead.

Anyway, compared to their last poll, Conway closing the gap is almost entirely turn-out based (he did pick up a few points with Democrats though).  Republicans went from 42% of the electorate to 36% (which is actually below their 37% registration numbers), Democrats went from 47% to 52%, and Liberals went up from 12 to 17.  Unless Conway has been able to create an unprecedented turnout operation in the last 3 weeks, this is probably an outlier.

Which, seeing as it still shows Conway losing, is not good for him.  Not terrible, but the Democrats are still set to lose this one in November.

     Depending on the precise definition of Eastern KY they use, Paul will probably be demolished out there. Just look at Lunsford vs. McConnell:



     It doesn't actually look like that bad of a performance for McConnell, but much of that area bears similarity to West Virginia. An econo-libertarian like Paul would play very poorly out there. No matter how you cut it, I'd be surprised if he does better there than McConnell.

[minionofmidas]

Also, KY-6 is Central Kentucky.

[Tender Branson]

This is how SUSA defines the KY regions:



Grey: Western
Green: Louisville
Yellow: North-Central
Red: Eastern

[Dgov]

This is how SUSA defines the KY regions:



Grey: Western
Green: Louisville
Yellow: North-Central
Red: Eastern

My Mistake

[Oakvale]

Woah, I'd written this off as safe Republican after months of Paul leads. Guess it's time to move it back into the "toss-up" category... asumming Rasmussen is somewhat similar, anyway.

[minionofmidas]

Toss-up is pushing it. Senator Paul isn't dried and dusted yet - won't be until election day - but of course he remains quite likely.
Which is, basically, what one needs to assume in Kentucky anyways.

[tpfkaw]

The poll assumes that the makeup of the electorate will be more Democratic than 2008.  If we adjust it so that the partisan makeup of the poll is the same as 2008, Paul leads by 7 points.  In other words, it's a bad poll.

[Tender Branson]

The poll assumes that the makeup of the electorate will be more Democratic than 2008.  If we adjust it so that the partisan makeup of the poll is the same as 2008, Paul leads by 7 points.  In other words, it's a bad poll.

That depends on the measure. You can take the KY Secretary of State numbers or the Exit polls:

The KY SoS numbers for 2008: 58% DEM, 37% GOP, 5% Others

http://www.elect.ky.gov/NR/rdonlyres/31C5D630-440B-4018-82F5-5E9E438B2C7F/176733/turnoutSUMMARYGEN08.txt

The 2008 Exit Poll for KY: 47% DEM, 38% GOP, 15% Others

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#KYP00p1

[tpfkaw]

I'm sure there are still quite a few more registered Democrats in KY than people who choose to self-identify as Democrats in a poll, so it would be best to compare how people answer that question in a poll, especially considering that exit polls tend to skew slightly Democratic (the source of a thousand nutty conspiracy theories about the 2004 election).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Fools Gold. Alas.

[Hash]

     It doesn't actually look like that bad of a performance for McConnell, but much of that area bears similarity to West Virginia. An econo-libertarian like Paul would play very poorly out there. No matter how you cut it, I'd be surprised if he does better there than McConnell.

Thought it isn't like Conway is a great candidate for that part of the world either.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Yeah, this is too good to be true.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I wonder how all the Dems who've been dismissing SUSA for months are going to bend over backwards to accept this result over all the ones that have Paul leading by double-digits.

[xavier110]

Yup. SurveyUSA just suckkkkks this year.