FL-08/Susquehanna: Taliban Dan beats Grayson

[minionofmidas]

Doing pretty good for such favs (and might hold on. Though it's not a clean toss-up or anything.) What's the issue with his opponent?

[minionofmidas]

I think the DU persona was always there. Perhaps not as far in the foreground.

[minionofmidas]

If Grayson had stuck to the populist image that got him elected rather than turning into the Congressional equivalent of a Democratic Underground poster, he might be doing better. He did a brilliant ad in 2008 about the billions of dollars "lost" in Iraq which I can't find on youtube. Now he's like the Democratic equivalent of Michele Bachmann, except not in an otherwise-safe district.

Bachmann's district isn't particularly safe either.

It's not lopsided. That doesn't mean it isn't safe (especially not "otherwise safe"). It's suburban partisan heaven. Actually, so is this seat to an extent.

[minionofmidas]

Hard to imagine him surviving with favorables like that. His strategy of running like a reverse Republican is interesting though, we'll see.

It's not a strategy. It's who he is.

A crazy?

An angry uberpartisan with a gift for formulations... which is not actually a good thing in a career politician (not from the career standpoint, that is.)

[minionofmidas]

He'll probably be back in 2012, mostly because The Republicans are likely to create a new Safe D Seat in the Orlando Area.

Not if they can at all help it. These are Florida Republicans we're talking about.
If they can win the 8th and 24th this year, they'll try to shore their new incumbents up. If either Grayson or Kosmas somehow survives (unlikely but certainly not impossible), a safeish D seat in the area becomes rather more probable (though still not certain)... but it would be taken. Where does that leave a retread? Nowhere.

Oh wait. Are Republicans going to be in control? Hardly dried and dusted, is it? Any bipartisan compromise is indeed likely to create a D seat in Orlando.
 

[minionofmidas]

I think you're underestimating the Pragmatism of Florida Republicans. 

Available evidence does not suggest that to be possible.

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That's not going to be necessary. Both districts as exist now voted for Republican Representatives in 2006, and there's still a number of safe (if only due to Dem lack of organizational strength, otherwise they'd be leaners) R seats around in central Florida; that's all you need to know.