FL-08/Susquehanna: Taliban Dan beats Grayson

[Dgov]

He'll probably be back in 2012, mostly because The Republicans are likely to create a new Safe D Seat in the Orlando Area, and he has enough of a partisan following to be able to win the primary.

[Dgov]

He'll probably be back in 2012, mostly because The Republicans are likely to create a new Safe D Seat in the Orlando Area.

Not if they can at all help it. These are Florida Republicans we're talking about.
If they can win the 8th and 24th this year, they'll try to shore their new incumbents up. If either Grayson or Kosmas somehow survives (unlikely but certainly not impossible), a safeish D seat in the area becomes rather more probable (though still not certain)... but it would be taken. Where does that leave a retread? Nowhere.

Oh wait. Are Republicans going to be in control? Hardly dried and dusted, is it? Any bipartisan compromise is indeed likely to create a D seat in Orlando.
 

I think you're underestimating the Pragmatism of Florida Republicans.  For starters, it helps them immensely to shift the 3rd West from Jacksonville towards Tallahassee (and ensure the 2nd becomes vastly more Republican) instead of Orlando, and then cover the Liberal parts of Orange and Osceola and Volusia counties to help keep the 8th and 24th in Republican hands.

So, doing so flips a Democratic seat and solidifies republican majorities in two other seats.  That's what i would call a smart bet on their part.  Also, Orange county voted for Obama by about 85,000 votes (more than McCain's margin in Orange County, CA), so it's close to impossible to draw a map where none of the Orlando districts are Obama-majority.

[Dgov]

I think you're underestimating the Pragmatism of Florida Republicans.  For starters, it helps them immensely to shift the 3rd West from Jacksonville towards Tallahassee (and ensure the 2nd becomes vastly more Republican) instead of Orlando, and then cover the Liberal parts of Orange and Osceola and Volusia counties to help keep the 8th and 24th in Republican hands.

That would be a rational thing for them to do, but I wonder, can they draw a VRA district that also includes Tallahassee and Gadsden County without getting too spindly?

Well, it's already a finger district, so I don't think it'll be too much of a problem.

[Dgov]

I think you're underestimating the Pragmatism of Florida Republicans.  For starters, it helps them immensely to shift the 3rd West from Jacksonville towards Tallahassee (and ensure the 2nd becomes vastly more Republican) instead of Orlando, and then cover the Liberal parts of Orange and Osceola and Volusia counties to help keep the 8th and 24th in Republican hands.

That would be a rational thing for them to do, but I wonder, can they draw a VRA district that also includes Tallahassee and Gadsden County without getting too spindly?

FL-03 isn't VRA protected, it was only 49% black when it was drawn.

I think VRA districts have to be just able to 'Elect representatives of their choosing".  NC-12 is technically plurality white and it still counts.