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Author Topic: Why are internal polls distrusted?  (Read 1189 times)
trippytropicana
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« on: July 27, 2018, 09:25:57 pm »

So an internal poll is when a candidate pays for a poll in a certain race, and they sometimes leak or just get straight up released, but when people see them, no one really takes them seriously? But why?

An internal poll, while it might be rigged in favor of a candidate, but it doesn't make sense for a poll to be rigged in favor of a candidate. If a poll is biased/rigged then it doesn't give the candidate an accurate representation of the electorate, and wouldn't help them at all, and also mislead them.

I guess what I'm trying to ask is, what's the reasoning to discredit an internal poll.
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jfern
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« Reply #1 on: July 27, 2018, 09:30:54 pm »

Easily rigged to give the number you want.
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BundouYMB
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« Reply #2 on: July 28, 2018, 03:45:13 pm »



An internal poll, while it might be rigged in favor of a candidate, but it doesn't make sense for a poll to be rigged in favor of a candidate. If a poll is biased/rigged then it doesn't give the candidate an accurate representation of the electorate, and wouldn't help them at all, and also mislead them.


Obviously the candidates try to get accurate data for their own campaigns. Usually, none of that data is released to the public. When campaigns do release polls it's to push a narrative, and they have every incentive to mess with the data.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #3 on: July 28, 2018, 07:31:50 pm »



An internal poll, while it might be rigged in favor of a candidate, but it doesn't make sense for a poll to be rigged in favor of a candidate. If a poll is biased/rigged then it doesn't give the candidate an accurate representation of the electorate, and wouldn't help them at all, and also mislead them.


Obviously the candidates try to get accurate data for their own campaigns. Usually, none of that data is released to the public. When campaigns do release polls it's to push a narrative, and they have every incentive to mess with the data.

Yes, candidates are often encouraged to publish bullish poll numbers to attract attention and/or energy to their campaigns.
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« Reply #4 on: July 29, 2018, 08:17:18 pm »



An internal poll, while it might be rigged in favor of a candidate, but it doesn't make sense for a poll to be rigged in favor of a candidate. If a poll is biased/rigged then it doesn't give the candidate an accurate representation of the electorate, and wouldn't help them at all, and also mislead them.


Obviously the candidates try to get accurate data for their own campaigns. Usually, none of that data is released to the public. When campaigns do release polls it's to push a narrative, and they have every incentive to mess with the data.

Yes, candidates are often encouraged to publish bullish poll numbers to attract attention and/or energy to their campaigns.

Clear favorites will also sometimes release polls that show things competative in order for fundraising.
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« Reply #5 on: July 30, 2018, 05:25:42 am »

This election made me just not care about approval ratings or polls. They are totally just meaningless statistics for me now. Trump showed they don't matter
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« Reply #6 on: July 30, 2018, 05:37:07 pm »

This election made me just not care about approval ratings or polls. They are totally just meaningless statistics for me now. Trump showed they don't matter
Because the polls were mildly wrong once.
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« Reply #7 on: July 30, 2018, 08:15:59 pm »

This election made me just not care about approval ratings or polls. They are totally just meaningless statistics for me now. Trump showed they don't matter
The polls were right though. Clinton got more votes than Trump. Trump saw chances for MI, WI, and MN and suddenly directed attention there the last few weeks. Clinton saw a chance for Trump in Michigan and ran there the Friday before the election. The media underestimated the electorate by thinking they wouldn't elect someone as morally bankrupt, unfit for office, and inexperienced as Trump. That's on them. The polls accurately predicted a close race.
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« Reply #8 on: July 30, 2018, 09:29:34 pm »

This election made me just not care about approval ratings or polls. They are totally just meaningless statistics for me now. Trump showed they don't matter
Because the polls were mildly wrong once.

It is not a right or wrong issue as much as about me just deciding that I am going to just go into things you know, open minded, instead of deciding how something is going to go down right from the start. I will sit down and let the results come in as they do. There is nothing wrong with that. I am not going to let some predetermined number decide what I should think for an election. Besides, I didn't even pay attention to the polls even before the election because I always just decided to be more open about stuff like that. If you don't like that, we can disagree, but I just have my own personal opinion on that. I never paid attention to the polls and I never will, because in the end the only vote that matters is the vote on election day, end of story
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« Reply #9 on: August 01, 2018, 09:10:41 pm »

This election made me just not care about approval ratings or polls. They are totally just meaningless statistics for me now. Trump showed they don't matter

This is basically the worst and most dangerous attitude a Republican could have going into 2020.
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« Reply #10 on: August 02, 2018, 04:16:38 am »

This is basically the worst and most dangerous attitude a Republican could have going into 2020.

I must say it is quite interesting to see a republican from Massachusetts.

Depends on what you mean by "worst" and "Dangerous."  If you mean that republicans are going to think they are fine and not vote at all, then yeah you are right. But if they already had plans to vote anyways, then this I don't feel is too much the case. I was going to vote no matter what. I don't know for who, but I still plan to. That being said, I guess I shouldn't say they don't matter anymore. I will retract myself there. But I will pay attention more to word of mouth and the election day numbers than what people say on internet polls. I might consider them, but they will still not be my ultimate decider
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« Reply #11 on: August 02, 2018, 09:29:16 am »

This election made me just not care about approval ratings or polls. They are totally just meaningless statistics for me now. Trump showed they don't matter
Because the polls were mildly wrong once.

Actually they were pretty accurate in '16, nationally and stade-wide. All RB states were within the margin of error except for WI, while Trump has slightly ahead in NV.

To the OP's question: Internals are often biased or under/overpoll certain voter groups to get a better results for the candidates themselves to gain momentum ("see, we're winning in the polls").
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« Reply #12 on: September 12, 2018, 07:44:12 pm »

This election made me just not care about approval ratings or polls. They are totally just meaningless statistics for me now. Trump showed they don't matter
Because the polls were mildly wrong once.

Actually they were pretty accurate in '16, nationally and stade-wide. All RB states were within the margin of error except for WI, while Trump has slightly ahead in NV.

To the OP's question: Internals are often biased or under/overpoll certain voter groups to get a better results for the candidates themselves to gain momentum ("see, we're winning in the polls").

A few, especially MO, IA, WI, MN, were off by more than 3.5 points, when looking at the average of the polls.  Trump under polled in each of those states.  Why that is, I don't know.

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« Reply #13 on: September 13, 2018, 06:59:52 pm »

This election made me just not care about approval ratings or polls. They are totally just meaningless statistics for me now. Trump showed they don't matter
Because the polls were mildly wrong once.

Actually they were pretty accurate in '16, nationally and stade-wide. All RB states were within the margin of error except for WI, while Trump has slightly ahead in NV.

To the OP's question: Internals are often biased or under/overpoll certain voter groups to get a better results for the candidates themselves to gain momentum ("see, we're winning in the polls").

A few, especially MO, IA, WI, MN, were off by more than 3.5 points, when looking at the average of the polls.  Trump under polled in each of those states.  Why that is, I don't know.



Most polls in 2016 simply didn't weight by education. This had a big effect in those states with a lot of non-college whites, and it was compounded by the fact college educated whites are simply more likely to respond to polls than non-college whites do.
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« Reply #14 on: September 18, 2018, 05:32:31 pm »

This election made me just not care about approval ratings or polls. They are totally just meaningless statistics for me now. Trump showed they don't matter

The only thing proven about favorables/approvals in 2016 is that if both candidates are very unpopular, it mostly cancels out. It didn't prove that approval/favorable ratings don't matter, as I frequently see mentioned by all sorts of people (even journalists). A popular candidate vs an unpopular candidate is still going to lean towards the popular candidate, Trump or no Trump.

Obviously you're free to believe in what you want, I just hate seeing that conclusion drawn from 2016 when it objectively makes no sense.
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