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Author Topic: State polls by age  (Read 1189 times)
mathstatman
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« on: August 17, 2017, 03:52:32 pm »
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Are state polls by age reasonably accurate? I've seen maps on this forum of, say, 18-29 voters only or 65+ voters only.

Are they accurate? I would think the subsample sizes would be on the small side. Are there really significant state-to-state variations in the age gradient of vote breakdowns?
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ExtremeConservative
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« Reply #1 on: August 17, 2017, 10:40:48 pm »
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The exit polls are reasonably accurate, and there are a couple strong trends:

-The age gap is much smaller in states that trended towards Trump and much larger in states that trended towards Clinton.  This is particularly evident in Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Kentucky, and Maine, which all had some form of "reverse age gaps", with youngs being more Republican than olds.

-The age gap is also much smaller in very white states and larger in states with lots of minorities (particularly lots of Hispanics).  What is likely happening is that, in very white states, the youngest voters are a lot more demographically similar to the oldest ones (it may also be true in states like Alabama, Mississippi, and Arkansas, where the white-black ratio has pretty much remained constant and that have no real trendy areas, although none of those were exit polled).  In states like Arizona and Texas, even if the youngest whites voted exactly like the oldest whites, there would still be a pretty significant age gap due to demographics, so that is important to keep in mind.
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The conservative movement is being damaged massively by Donald Trump.  Other than Neil Gorsuch, we have failed to have any meaningful accomplishments that were not potentially temporary executive orders.  That, combined with the off year election results tell me that I'M READY FOR PENCE
People's Speaker North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #2 on: October 15, 2017, 12:01:05 am »
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The exit polls are reasonably accurate, and there are a couple strong trends:

-The age gap is much smaller in states that trended towards Trump and much larger in states that trended towards Clinton.  This is particularly evident in Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Kentucky, and Maine, which all had some form of "reverse age gaps", with youngs being more Republican than olds.

-The age gap is also much smaller in very white states and larger in states with lots of minorities (particularly lots of Hispanics).  What is likely happening is that, in very white states, the youngest voters are a lot more demographically similar to the oldest ones (it may also be true in states like Alabama, Mississippi, and Arkansas, where the white-black ratio has pretty much remained constant and that have no real trendy areas, although none of those were exit polled).  In states like Arizona and Texas, even if the youngest whites voted exactly like the oldest whites, there would still be a pretty significant age gap due to demographics, so that is important to keep in mind.

I would love to see accurate data breaking down MS Whites down by age.

MS Whites 65 and up are probably voting close to 90% Republican, while those under 50 are probably in the mid 60's.

I ran some numbers the other day. Just a slight 5% increase in AA turnout, and Whites voting 75% Republican!, would put the Republicans below 50% in MS.
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« Reply #3 on: October 16, 2017, 03:43:21 pm »
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Here is a 2012 exit poll how on Mississippi age groups voted:



Obviously for 2016 we would have to account for lower AA turnout, but it does show how quickly Mississippi could end up moving with the massive gap between over 65s and under 65s.
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