KY: Rasmussen: Paul's (R) lead shrinks, but is still in the double digits

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

New Poll: Kentucky Senator by Rasmussen on 2010-09-29

Summary: D: 38%, R: 49%, I: 5%, U: 8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Whacker77]

This seems to be a more reasonable number and verifies why no outside money from the Democrats has come into the state.  I think you might have the partisan breakdown reversed though.

[Eraserhead]

I suspect SUSA has been spitting out a few bad polls lately coughNYSenatespecialcough.

[The Vorlon]

The GOP has pulled their money out of this state also.

Both sides have left, the race is over.

Senator Paul.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Had Bunning staid in, we would have this race, barring that, it was already a lost cause.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Conway should have gone after Paul harder on Medicare/Social Security/Coal as opposed to mostly hitting him on drugs. The drug comment might have been his largest gaffe but there aren't many voters who are going to switch to Conway solely on Paul making one stupid comment on something that doesn't affect them directly.

[The Vorlon]

I suspect SUSA has been spitting out a few bad polls lately coughNYSenatespecialcough.

Yes SUSA has laid a couple eggs lately.

The Kentucky sample had an electorate about 8% more democratic than the 2008 presidential turnout, which seems... unlikely....

The NY Special sample was, um, interesting as well....

All this being said, SUSA is actually a pretty decent robo pollster.  SUSA is, in many ways, a very "pure" pollster with very few weights built into their poll (other than age, gender, etc, which are indeed known quantities)

Because of this they do get a bit more random error than say a Rasmussen, but they also don't have the risk of some of their core assumptions (ie party ID) being wrong.

When you poll as often as SUSA you will lay a few eggs, just the unavoidable wrath of the probability god - but on balance they do a pretty decent job.

[Whacker77]

Conway should have gone after Paul harder on Medicare/Social Security/Coal as opposed to mostly hitting him on drugs. The drug comment might have been his largest gaffe but there aren't many voters who are going to switch to Conway solely on Paul making one stupid comment on something that doesn't affect them directly.

I live in Kentucky and I think your advice would have been right in any other year than 2010.  The issues that animate Paul (debt, spending) are the issues at the forefront of the electorate.  It's just good timing for Paul and bad timing for Conway.

[albaleman]

LOL Rassmusen.

They're clearly trying to diminsh the polls from SUSA, Braun Research, and PPP showing a competitive race.

At this point, Paul's lead is down to about 4-6 points.

Republicans better be thankful this is Kentucky and 2010.

[Whacker77]

LOL Rassmusen.

They're clearly trying to diminsh the polls from SUSA, Braun Research, and PPP showing a competitive race.

At this point, Paul's lead is down to about 4-6 points.

Republicans better be thankful this is Kentucky and 2010.

You might not like Rasmussen, but his results and PPP have been closer to each other than to CN2/Braun.  If the race is as close as you suggest, why has no respected national election analyst even mentioned this race in the too close to call category?  Charlie Cook and Stuart Rothenberg see the internal polls and don't even mention this race.  Even Chuck Todd doesn't mention it and he is on MSNBC.

The SUSA poll of two weeks ago was out of whack and even showed Paul tied with Conway in the most conservative district in the state.  That should make anyone curious.  Vorlon has also pointed out it likely overstated Democrats.  The DSCC is only barely playing here and Conway's own publicly released internal poll has him three down and sitting right where's been for some time, 42%.

I'm not saying Conway can't win, but I think I have a better view of my own state than someone from Minnesota.

[HappyWarrior]

I still think theres a shot for an upset here with Paul's extremeism, however I don't think it is likely. Especially since it appears the Democratic Party has lost faith in Conway apparently.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

I still think theres a shot for an upset here with Paul's extremeism, however I don't think it is likely. Especially since it appears the Democratic Party has lost faith in Conway apparently.

Is the democratic senatorial committee pumping any money into him?

[Uncle Albert/Admiral Halsey]

Randall's been running into trouble with his Medicare statements, so I wouldn't be surprised if this tightens up, or even if Conway can win in an upset, though I still think Randall will win.

[Whacker77]

I still think theres a shot for an upset here with Paul's extremeism, however I don't think it is likely. Especially since it appears the Democratic Party has lost faith in Conway apparently.

Is the democratic senatorial committee pumping any money into him?

Yes, they are.  Two weeks ago, they announced they were going to cancel a week's worth of advertising, but Conway convinced them cancelling a week would be demoralizing to his side.  The DSCC put up a few adds this past week and are doing the same this week and continuing to election day.

In the primary, Conway saved his money for the final three weeks and he scored a narrow upset.  His primary opponent has been lukewarm on him, but I'm not sure why.  More than likely, he thinks Conway will be a challenger for governor in five years.

The NRSC played here in mid-September, but has since moved on as of this past week.  No doubt, Conway has narrowed the gap with some pretty darn good ads, but the NRSC doesn't seem worried, at least not yet.  One thing to remember is this.  Paul vastly outperformed his primary polling and I think that may be the case in three weeks.

I like Paul, but even I can admit this is the only year he could ever hope to win.  Any other year, Grayson would have won and probably been in the same lead over a generic Democrat.  Kentucky's registration advantage for the Democrats is a paper tiger here.

[albaleman]

This races is a lot closer than this.

Paul will probably win, but his margin will likely be about 4-6 points.

[Sam Spade]

Rasmussen will say - Paul 47, Conway 42

[You kip if you want to...]

Rasmussen will say - Paul 47, Conway 42

Good numbers considering how big a difference Rass has shown compared to other pollsters, in this race particularly.

[Oakvale]

Rasmussen will say - Paul 47, Conway 42

Well, that's something. Again, Paul is still the favourite, but at least "Aqua Buddah" hasn't backfired ...yet.

[Holmes]

Finally, a new poll. It's been 3 weeks.