2012: America's Future Decided - The Romney Administration

[Yelnoc]

Good so far.  It's too bad that deal won, but that's certainly plausible (though the kind of adds Barnes has been hitting him with makes one not want to vote for the scumbag).

[Yelnoc]

Nice. 

If Pence is in than Daniels is out.  Candidates I think you ought to toss in are John Thune, Haley Barbour, Tim Pawlenty, and Rick Santorum.  Maybe Gingrich or Palin, though both of them give me the

Oh yeah, don't forget Hillary. 

[Yelnoc]

Great so far.  Interesting move to toss Pataki in, I doubt he will have much impact.  Right now I'm not sure who I support.  I'm curious why Santorum has been going up in the polls while Johnson sits at the bottom.  The Lieberman thing also threw me off, though really I suppose it isn't too implausible. 

By any chance, are you simulating this in President Forever?

[Yelnoc]

Great so far.  Interesting move to toss Pataki in, I doubt he will have much impact.  Right now I'm not sure who I support.  I'm curious why Santorum has been going up in the polls while Johnson sits at the bottom.  The Lieberman thing also threw me off, though really I suppose it isn't too implausible. 

By any chance, are you simulating this in President Forever?

No, I'm just using my political intuition to decide the race . Johnson is sitting at the bottom because he's a libertarian (duh). And Santorum has only risen from 3% to 4%, no? And it would be interesting to see who to support. I would have to go for Pence in this race .

Oh, ok.  One of your posts reminded me a bit of the game, the part where you were talking about what all of the candidates were doing.

I admit I'm nitpicking, but Johnson was endorsed by Ron Paul, who was polling in the 4-7% range (I believe).

I'm thinking about Pawlenty, atm I don't know enough about him.

[Yelnoc]

Great so far.  Interesting move to toss Pataki in, I doubt he will have much impact.  Right now I'm not sure who I support.  I'm curious why Santorum has been going up in the polls while Johnson sits at the bottom.  The Lieberman thing also threw me off, though really I suppose it isn't too implausible. 

By any chance, are you simulating this in President Forever?

No, I'm just using my political intuition to decide the race . Johnson is sitting at the bottom because he's a libertarian (duh). And Santorum has only risen from 3% to 4%, no? And it would be interesting to see who to support. I would have to go for Pence in this race .

Oh, ok.  One of your posts reminded me a bit of the game, the part where you were talking about what all of the candidates were doing.

I admit I'm nitpicking, but Johnson was endorsed by Ron Paul, who was polling in the 4-7% range (I believe).

I'm thinking about Pawlenty, atm I don't know enough about him.

Johnson was endorsed by Paul - but Johnson isn't Paul. And don't go making assumptions quite yet, I've got some tricks up my sleeve

Roger that.

[Yelnoc]

Lieberman is polling at 37%?  What has Obama done?

[Yelnoc]

Lieberman is polling at 37%?  What has Obama done?

10% unemployment rate? Not so good for Obama.

Still, that's about what RFK was polling when he challenged Carter.  Lieberman is no RFK and Obama is no Carter.

[Yelnoc]

Lieberman is polling at 37%?  What has Obama done?

10% unemployment rate? Not so good for Obama.

Still, that's about what RFK was polling when he challenged Carter.  Lieberman is no RFK and Obama is no Carter.

I think you mean Ted Kennedy, because RFK ran against Johnson, not Carter. And Teddy was leading Carter 49-39. I don't have polling from the '68 Democratic primaries, but I'm pretty sure Bobby led LBJ (and all the others) by a pretty hefty margin.

Whoops, name mix up.

My point is that Lieberman is far from the powerful, popular figure to mount an insurgent campaign that is at least moderately succesful, especially when Obama's "fault" is completely out of his control (unemployment numbers).  But I don't want to detract from this timeline, please continue.

[Yelnoc]

Bolton is a quack, Petraeus would never enorse him.  Honestly I can't see Petraeus straying into politics at all until his committment to the armed forces is complete.

[Yelnoc]

Overall a very nice update.  Why, though, did Leiberman do so strongly in New Hampshire?

[Yelnoc]

With this kind of long drawn out primary, whoever wins the Democratic primary will lose the general election.  Unless, of course, you let Gingrich win the Republican nomination and then uncover a new scandal about him.

[Yelnoc]

I'm calling it.

Obama/Biden vs. Romney/Pawlenty

[Yelnoc]

Is it possible for neither Obama nor Bayh to get a majority of delegates?  How about a tie?  As to the republican race...gah.  I don't like either choice.  Still, awesome timeline I can't wait to see who will face off against who.

[Yelnoc]

Sad thing about President Bush

[Yelnoc]

I don't think Romney's VP pick will do him any good.  Christie does nothing to shore up the base; the social conservatives must be very skeptical of Romney if the primary battle went all the way to the end before Gingrich barely lost.  This could set the stage for a challenger to his right.  I doubt it would be an establishment figure but maybe someone like Herman Cain who has loads of money, a big following, and strong social conservative principles could seize on to those disenchanted voters.  It may be too late for him to get into the race though....

As to Obama, appealing to the center is smart.  I think he will go with Warner.

[Yelnoc]

This makes no sense.  Cain's support would come almost exclusively from Romney.  If he is polling at 18% Obama should still be in the 40's and Romney suffering in the 30's.  There's no way you can have Cain run without basically handing the race to Obama.

And Obama picking a Republican running mate is enough to make the liberals launch their own challenger (which could validate your poll numbers a bit).  Regardless, Obama picking a republican is about as likely as Romney picking Huckabee.

[Yelnoc]

It seems like the Hagel selection would keep Liberals home.  At least, that was the logic I was using to validate your earlier poll numbers after our last discussion.

Anyway, I am curious to see whether Cain can win a state.  Regardless, this is Obama's election to lose.

[Yelnoc]

Yes, please continue.