Colorado State Senate Election Analysis (State House analysis up!)

[Vepres]

Alright, so the Colorado Senate has 35 members, each serving four-year terms. Half are elected every two years, plus special elections and such. The Democrats currently have 21 seats, while the Republicans have 14. The Republicans need to gain four seats to recapture the majority.

* = open seat

SD-01 Solid Republican: This large district encompasses much of the eastern plains. The incumbent Republican should have no trouble winning reelection in this rural district.

*SD-02 Solid Republican:This district takes up Southwestern Colorado as well as rural Pueblo county and Canon City. Most of the counties in this district were solidly for McCain. The Republicans should hold this, despite it being open.

*SD-03 Solid Democratic: Most of this district's population live in the blue-collar city of Pueblo. As a former steel town that is half Hispanic, the Democrat should win this easily.

SD-05 Toss-up: This district is a mix of conservative, liberal, and swing counties. On the one hand you have the liberal ski-town of Aspen, on the other you have the conservative Delta County. In 2006 (a very good year for Colorado Democrats), the current Democratic incumbent Gail Schwartz narrowly defeated the then-incumbent Republican with 51% of the vote. This is a toss-up if I've ever seen one.

SD-06 Solid Democratic: This district is basically southeast Colorado. The main population center is the college-town of Durango. The current incumbent was appointed in 2009, and thus has never won in the district. Still, it went 60% for the Democrat in 2006, and Durango should be in the Democratic column. Solidly Democratic.

*SD-07 Solid Republican: Josh Penry, the minority leader in the Colorado Senate, represents this district, but is retiring. The district is basically the conservative Mesa County, where Grand Junction is located. Though the Libertarian nominee may siphon votes off of the GOP nominee, Penry won here by almost 70% in 2006, thus it is safely in the Republican column.

*SD-09 Solid Republican: This is a very conservative district that takes up the northern part of the Colorado Springs area. The Republican is running unopposed.

SD-11 Solid Democratic: This district is basically drawn to take up all the liberal parts of Colorado Springs. The incumbent should have no trouble here.

SD-13 Solid Republican: The northern half of Weld County, and thus half of Greeley, is in this district. The incumbent Republican should win easily in this somewhat rural district.

*SD-15 Solid Republican: This district is all of Larimer County except for Fort Collins. Rural except for the conservative Loveland, the Republican will win easily.

*SD-16 Likely Democratic: Joan Fitz-Gerald retired to run in the Democratic primary to replace Mark Udall in CO-02 (which she lost). This open seat is made up of Ski-towns for the most part, and thus has a natural Democratic lean. However, it is rural and not that Democratic like Pitkin County. Likely Democratic.

*SD-20 Lean Democratic: The Denver suburb of Wheat Ridge makes up most of this district. It is white and middle-class, but the Denver suburbs have been trending Democratic the past two elections. The Democrat won with 56% of the vote last time. However, in a Republican year (despite the COGOP chaos on the Gubernatorial side), the Democrats cannot take this for granted. Lean Democratic.

SD-22 Likely Republican: Republicans barely held on to this district in 2006 with 53% of the vote. It encompasses the rural southern Jefferson County and parts of the suburb Littleton. In a Republican year with an incumbent, Republicans will probably hold onto this one.

SD-24 Likely Democratic: This district is mainly made up of Thornton, a Denver suburb in Arapahoe County, which is historically more liberal than the southern Adams County and western Jefferson County. There is a Democratic write-in candidate, but they are not likely to take many votes. Being a suburb in a Republican year, it is not completely safe. However, the incumbent Democrat won with 60% of the vote in 2006, so she is the heavy favorite this year.

SD-30 Solid Republican: This is an affluent (very affluent) white district represented by one of the most conservative members of the State Senate. The incumbent, Harvey, won with 63% of the vote in 2006. There is no reason he shouldn't win.

SD-31 Solid Democratic: This district takes up part of Westminster and dips into Denver, and a Hispanic portion no less. Democrats will win easily.

SD-32 Solid Democratic: Incumbent Chris Romer, son of former three-term Democratic Governor Roy Romer, should win easily here. Though parts of it are affluent, most of it is a typical urban Democratic stronghold.

SD-33 Solid Democratic: This district takes up northeast Denver. It has a relatively large black population, and thus should be an easy Democratic hold.

SD-34 Solid Democratic: Western Denver, which has lots of Hispanics, is what is in this distict. The Democratic incumbent should win easily.



Republicans are not likely to take the State Senate back this year, as they'd have to sweep all five competitive seats to take control.

I'll have a state house analysis in the coming days.

[Vepres]

The Colorado House has 65 members elected to two-year terms every two years. Members are term limited to four consecutive terms. The Democrats currently have 37 seats, the Republicans 27, and one Democrat turned independent who still largely votes with the Democrats. As you'll see, the Republicans' prospects here are better than in the Senate. They need to gain six seats for a majority.

* = open seat

HD-01 Lean Democratic: Democrat Jeanne Labuda will be running for a third term this year. She will likely face a much tougher race than she did just two years ago, however. The district, which is made up of southwestern Denver, is whiter and more affluent and relatively more conservative than the rest of Denver County. In a year like this, this district should be ripe for the picking for the GOP. However, the district isn't that conservative, giving Labuda 58% of the vote in 2008, and with a nut job atop the Republican Gubernatorial ticket, she still has the edge.

HD-02 Solidly Democratic: Just north of HD-01, this district is middle-class and has a large Hispanic population. Incumbent Democrat Mark Ferridino won with 79% of the vote in 2008, and should have no trouble winning reelection.

HD-03 Likely Democratic: Incumbent Daniel Kagan was appointed to fill a vacancy in 2009, and thus has never won an election here. This district encompasses southern Denver and the suburb of Englewood. It is solidly middle-class and white (though Hispanics have a presence). However, Denver University is in this district, which definitely gives it a left-wing tilt, which is shown by the 2008 results, where the Democrat won 65% of the vote. However, like HD-01, this is the type of place that should be trending back to the GOP this year, and the Republican challenger Christine Mastin is running a competent campaign. Still, the Democrat will likely win this.

*HD-04 Solidly Democratic: The Democrats should have no trouble here in this northwestern Denver district. Though the seat is open, it is very heavily Hispanic and gave the Democrat 81% of the vote in 2008. The Libertarians have a candidate here as well, but the Democrat is completely safe.

*HD-05 Solidly Democratic: This district is just east of HD-04. It has a significant Hispanic population and is not as affluent as the southern areas of Denver. Though open, the Democrat should win here easily. In 2008, it gave the Democrat 80% of the vote.

HD-06 Solidly Democratic: Incumbent Democrat Lois Court should win easily in her central Denver district (which also takes in the small enclave of Glendale). Typical urban liberal district. It gave her 67% of the vote in 2008.

*HD-07 Solidly Democratic: This district encompasses northeast Denver, including Denver International Airport. The incumbent, Speaker Terrence Caroll (who is the first Black Speaker of the House), is term limited. The Democrats should hold this district easily, as there is a significant black population here. Carroll received 79% of the vote in 2008. The Republican, Pauline Olvera, is Hispanic and seems to be running a good campaign, but that won't be enough here.

HD-08 Solidly Democratic: Incumbent Democrat McCann will have an easy time winning reelection in this north-central district. Urban, liberal, strong minority presence, this is a solidly Democratic district. In fact, there wasn't even a challenger from either the GOP or a third party in 2008.
HD-09 Solidly Democratic: Joe Mikolsi, the incumbent Democrat, should win this southeastern Denver district easily. Once again, urban and not particularly affluent, which makes for a solidly Democratic district. In 2008, he won with 66% of the vote.

HD-10 Solidly Democratic: The Democrat has no opponents, and even if he did, this district takes up most of Boulder, so yeah. Safely Democratic.

*HD-11 Likely Democratic: This seat, which encompasses a small part of Boulder and the west and northern parts of Longmont, does have a Democratic-lean. In 2008 it gave the Democrat 62% of the vote. However, Longmont is the most Republican-friendly place in Boulder County, and the seat is open. In a year where economic issues eclipse social issues, the Republicans could pull off an upset. Still, the Democrat is the heavy favorite.

*HD-12 Lean Democratic: Term-limited Democratic incumbent, House Majority Leader Paul Weissman, won in 2008 with 69% of the vote. Now, his handpicked successor, Matt Jones, is hoping to keep this seat in the Democrats' hands. However, although this district is mainly made-up of the affluent white suburbs that have trended so heavily towards the Democrats this year, this is the very group that might be open to voting Republican when economic issues are on the forefront. Republican John Isleman is winning the sign war at the moment. This one is hard to predict this year, therefore it is only lean Democratic at the moment.

HD-13 Solidly Democratic: Incumbent Democrat Claire Levy should have no trouble winning reelection in this district, which encompasses the rural east Boulder County, and Gilpin and Clear Creek County. Largely made of liberal ski towns and resorts, this is Democratic territory.

*HD-14 Solidly Republican: The Republican is running unopposed in this district, which is north of Colorado Springs and right next to the Air Force Academy.

HD-15 Solidly Republican: This district is to the east of HD-14, and like other Colorado Springs districts is solidly Republican, giving incumbent Mark Waller 66% of the vote in 2008.

HD-16 Solidly Republican: Incumbent Republican Larry Liston won with 59% of the vote Solidly Republicanin 2008. This district is just south of HD-14 and, like all the districts in El Paso County north of central Colorado Springs, is solidly Republican.

HD-17 Lean Republican: Incumbent Democrat Dennis Apuan barely won the then-open seat in 2008 with 51% of the vote. While the district extends to rural southern El Paso County, most of the population is in southeast Colorado Springs. It's unlikely that he can survive in this part of the state in a year like this.

*HD-18 Likely Democratic: This central Colorado Springs district seems to have been drawn to take-in all the liberal parts of the city. Still, it is an open seat in Colorado Springs in a Republican year, so I can't say it is completely safe.

HD-19 Solidly Republican: The Republican incumbent faces no opposition is this very conservative and rural east El Paso County district.

HD-20 Solidly Republican: Another unopposed Republican incumbent in a conservative El Paso County District. Mainly made-up of the northern suburbs and the rural northern areas of the county.

HD-21 Solidly Republican: This district encompasses western El Paso county and northeastern Fremont county. While marginally less conservative than HD-19 and HD-20, incumbent Republican Bob Gardner should coast to reelection.

HD-22 Likely Republican: This district is basically the southern part of the southwestern Denver suburb of Lakwood and small parts of the southwestern suburb of Columbine. Incumbent Summers won with 54% of the vote in 2008.

HD-23 Lean Democratic: The incumbent was appointed in 2009, and therefore has none of the incumbent advantages. However, this district, which takes-up parts of the western suburbs and then some of the even further western suburb of Golden, has a Democratic lean having given the Democrat 60% of the vote in 2008. Still, suburban areas like this are the kind of places that used to be solidly Republican, and could be again given the national mood.

HD-24 Likely Democratic: Incumbent Sue Schafer won with 62% of the vote in this suburban district which is basically the suburb of Wheat Ridge and the southern parts of the suburb of Arvada. The difference between this district and HD-23 is this one has a proven incumbent running.

HD-25 Solidly Republican: While incumbent Cheri Gerou won with only a five percent margin of victory, she is running unopposed this year in this rural Jefferson County district.

[Vepres]

HD-26 Likely Democratic: Incumbent Andy Kerr won with 60% of the vote in 2008 in this district. Another Jefferson County suburban district, this one encompasses most of the suburb of Lakewood. Kerr will likely win a fourth and final term this year, but given the environment, one cannot be completely sure.

HD-27 Toss-up: The incumbent Democrat Sara Gagliardi defeated her Republican and American Constitution Party opponents in 2008 with 50% of the vote. This district is mainly in the western suburb of Arvada, and should be one the Republicans' top targets this year. Still, the Libertarian party is fielding a candidate who could play spoiler if the election is close.

HD-28 Solidly Republican: This district encompasses the southernmost of Denver's western suburbs, Ken Caryl and Columbine. This district is very conservative, as are all of Denver's southern suburbs. Incumbent Jim Kerr won with 58% of the vote in 2008.

HD-29 Likely Democratic: Incumbent Debbie Benefield is the favorite to win here. In 2008 she won with 58% of the vote in this district, which covers the western part of the northwestern suburb of Westminster and the northern parts of the NW suburb of Arvada. While this type of seat is likely to flip in a year like this, the incumbent has proven herself in the past elections.

HD-30 Lean Republican: Republican incumbent Kevin Priola narrowly won in 2008 with 51% of the vote. This district encompasses most of the northern Denver suburb of Brighton, parts of rural Adams County, and northern Aurora. He should be the favorite given the trends towards Republicans, but Aurora isn't the most Republican place in the metro-area, so he is not a shoe-in by any means.

HD-31 Likely Democratic: Incumbent Judy Solano only won 56% of the vote in 2008, a largely Democratic year. Parts of the northern Denver suburbs of Brighton and Northglen makeup this district. In a year like this, the seat should be up for grabs, but the Republican nominee is a “traditional values” Republican, not the type who would fare well in a district like this. Besides, the incumbent has proven she can win by a decent margin.

HD-32 Solidly Democratic: Incumbent Edward Casso went unopposed in 2008. He shouldn't have trouble getting reelected in this blue-color district that is in east Thornton and Commerce City.

HD-33 Toss-up: The Democratic incumbent won with 55% of the vote in the Broomfield-based district. She should be one of the most likely incumbents to fall, as Broomfield has historically been somewhat conservative, though it swung leftwards in past few cycles. Think affluent white-collar voters.

HD-34 Solidly Democratic: The Democratic incumbent won 59% of the vote in 2008, but if you consider that he Green Party candidate won 4.5%, the left is strong here. Placed right between the suburbs of Northglen, Westminster, and Thornton, it should trend towards Republicans this year, but probably not enough to endanger the incumbent.

HD-35 Solidly Democratic: Incumbent Democrat Cherylin Peniston won with 66% of the vote in this southeastern Westminster district. She should have no problem winning here, despite the fact that it should trend Republican this year.

HD-36 Likely Democratic: This eastern Aurora district should reelect incumbent Su Ryden. However, she only won with 59% of the vote, so she can't be considered safe in this climate.

HD-37 Likely Republican: This district is right between the southern Denver suburbs of Littleton and Centennial. The incumbent Republican barely won in 2008 by a 5 point margin, though an American Constitution party candidate won 2.5% of the vote. So in the current environment in an affluent suburban district, he should be the favorite.

HD-38 Toss-up: Incumbent Democrat Joe Rice will have a tough reelection bid in this Littleton-based district. He only won with 54% of the vote in 2008, and this is an area that should trend strongly towards Republicans.

HD-39Likely Republican: The incumbent Republican won with 53% of the vote in 2008 in this Centennial-based district. Much like HD-37, it should trend towards Republicans because of demographics (affluent, or at least solidly middle-class, whites).

HD-40Solidly Republican: This district encompasses parts of Aurora, rural eastern Arapahoe County, and all of Elbert County. Mostly rural and conservative, there isn't even a Democratic challenger, only an independent and a write-in Republican.

[Vepres]

HD-41Solidly Democratic: The Democrat should win in this southwestern Aurora district. In 2008, incumbent Nancy Todd went unopposed.

*HD-42Solidly Democratic: The Democrat should win easily here in this northwestern Aurora district. In 2008, the Democrat won 67% of the vote.
HD-43 Solidly Republican: The incumbent Republican will have no trouble winning in this very affluent district in northern Douglas County.

*HD-44 Solidly Republican: The incumbent Republican, Minority Leader Mike May, has been dogged with ethics scandals. However, this is an affluent district (being in northern (around HD-43) Douglas County), so the Republican should do fine.

HD-45 Solidly Republican: The incumbent Republican is running unopposed in this rural, conservative, affluent district in southern Douglas County.

HD-46 Solidly Democratic: The incumbent Democrat went unopposed in 2008 in this Pueblo-based district, and should win easily.

*HD-47 Lean Democratic: This district encompasses the rest of Pueblo County. The Democrat is the favorite given the nature of Pueblo County, but the area has been struggling, and the seat is open which could give Republicans an opening.

HD-48 Solidly Republican: The Republicans will have no problem holding this seat, which is basically southern Weld County (which means rural farms). Plus, Ken Buck, being the Attorney General here, should have coattails in this county.

HD-49 Solidly Republican: This district is all of Larimer County except for Fort Collins. This means the district is rural farms and a small portion of the conservative Fort Collins suburb of Loveland (location of the COGOP convention this year). Easy hold for Republicans.

HD-50 Likely Democratic: This district is the city of Greeley (home of North Colorado University) in Weld County. Despite being a college town and a non-negligible Hispanic population, the incumbent Democrat Jim Reisberg won with only 62% of the vote. The only reason this isn't safe is because Ken Buck may have coattails here.

HD-51 Solidly Republican: The Republican incumbent Brian DelGrosso will win here easily. This district is based in the conservative suburb of Loveland, where DelGrosso won with 57% of the vote in 2008.

HD-52 Solidly Democratic: This district encompasses the eastern portion of Fort Collins (home of Colorado State University). This part of the city is about as liberal as Greeley, but unlike Greeley, there is no reason for this to trend significantly towards Republicans. The incumbent is safe.

HD-53 Solidly Democratic: This district is based in western Fort Collins, and is more liberal than HD-52. The incumbent won with 63% of the vote in 2008. As it has significant influences from a public university, this will be safely Democratic.

HD-54 Solidly Republican: Incumbent Steve King is running unopposed here. The district is based in southern Mesa County and takes up both the rural areas and southern Grand Junction. Mesa County is very conservative, giving over 60% of the vote to John McCain.

HD-55 Solidly Republican: Incumbent Republican Laura Bradford won this district in 2008 by narrowly beating incumbent Democrat Bernie Buescher (who, incidentally, was expected to be the next Speaker if he had won) with only 51% of the vote. This district is based in northern Mesa County, and thus takes up the northern rural areas and northern Grand Junction. Despite only narrowly winning in 2008, Bradford has no opposition this year.

HD-56 Likely Democratic: Incumbent Democrat Christine Scanlan narrowly won reelection in 2008 (she was appointed in 2007) with 53% of the vote against a well organized opponent. While the district should be liberal, encompassing Summit County, Eagle County, and Lake County (all home to ski towns and resorts). While she will probably win this year, one cannot be sure after her performance in 2008.

HD-57 Solidly Republican: Randy Baumgardner won with 57% of the vote in this rural northwestern Colorado district. He shouldn't have trouble winning reelection, despite the presence of a Libertarian candidate.

*HD-58 Solidly Republican: Incumbent Scott Tipton is retiring to run against Ken Salazar in CO-03 this year. The Republican should win easily, with Tiption receiving 58% of the vote in 2008. This southeastern district does have some liberal areas, though the bulk of the population is in conservative Delta County. Therefore, it should be safe for the Republicans given the current environment.

*HD-59 Toss-up: The moderate Republican incumbent Ellen Roberts went unopposed in 2008, but now that the seat is open, Democrats may have an opportunity to pickup the seat. The seat is based around the college town of Durango. However, it is still largely rural, which gives the Republican a chance. While it should be leaning Democratic, the Republican has lots of experience in local public service being, among other things, the County Commissioner for La Plata County (the most populous county in the district), and so this should be a close one.

HD-60 Solidly Republican: Incumbent Tom Massey will win reelection easily in this rural, conservative district based around Park, Chaffee, and Fremont counties and the surrounding area.

HD-61 Toss-up: This district should not be in play, given that it encompasses the liberal Pitkin and Gunnison counties. However, Democrat turned independent Kathleen Curry is running a write-in campaign, which could split the Democratic vote and give Republicans the seat.

HD-62 Likely Democratic: This district encompasses the liberal county of Saguache, the moderate counties of Mineral, Archeluta, Alamosa, and Rio Grande. However, it is gerrymandered to have parts of Pueblo in it, and so it has a Democratic-lean. The incumbent won 57% of the vote in 2008. However, this more blue-collar area of the state may swing hard against Democrats, and that brings the safety of this seat into question.

*HD-63 Solidly Republican: The Republican faces no opposition in this district based in the central plains (western Kansas ).

HD-64 Toss-up: Incumbent Democrat Wes McKinley won with 58% of the vote in 2008. This district is in southeastern Colorado, and has a mix of highly Hispanic counties (like Las Animas) and rural white counties (like Baca). Hispanics have not been happy with the Colorado Democrats, and there are still those conservative white counties, so this district will be close.

HD-65 Solidly Republican: Incumbent Jerry Sonnenberg is running unopposed in this district that encompasses northern Weld County and the northeastern plains (farms).


Solidly Republican: 22
Likely Republican: 3
Lean Republican: 2
Toss-up: 6
Lean Democratic: 4
Likely Democratic: 8
Solidly Democratic: 20

[Hash]

Great stuff, Vepres (and an excuse for me to waste time looking at census stats about Colorado)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

There's actually a liberal part of Colorado Springs large enough to dominate a state senate seat? What?

I don't see how district 16 could flip. That would require winning over some partisan Democratic voters in the ski country. The only McCain county in it I see is Grand, which was really close, and most of the other counties were pretty wide margins. Obama probably approached 60% in this seat.

Also having Senate seats be more than half the size of House ones is dumb. I haven't looked at the House ones yet.

[Skill and Chance]

The Colorado State House of Representatives will be worth watching closely.  If Dems hold the House, Hickenlooper and company will be able to do a Dem gerrymander in CO.  Current law on redistricting is very lenient and does not provide for any independent review unless the plan is challenged in court.

[California8429]

There's actually a liberal part of Colorado Springs large enough to dominate a state senate seat? What?

I don't see how district 16 could flip. That would require winning over some partisan Democratic voters in the ski country. The only McCain county in it I see is Grand, which was really close, and most of the other counties were pretty wide margins. Obama probably approached 60% in this seat.

Also having Senate seats be more than half the size of House ones is dumb. I haven't looked at the House ones yet.

It's the oldest part of the town

and also, I think we'll win HD-27 slimly. The lib will spoil, but Libby is known in the district, active and she won it in 2008, Magellean did the stats and maps for her

[5280]

Good analysis Vpres!

[Kevinstat]

*SD-02 Solid Republican:This district takes up Southwestern Southeastern Colorado as well as rural Pueblo county and Canon City. Most of the counties in this district were solidly for McCain. The Republicans should hold this, despite it being open.
...
SD-06 Solid Democratic: This district is basically southeast southwest Colorado. The main population center is the college-town of Durango. The current incumbent was appointed in 2009, and thus has never won in the district. Still, it went 60% for the Democrat in 2006, and Durango should be in the Democratic column. Solidly Democratic.

Fixed (right?)

[minionofmidas]

*SD-02 Solid Republican:This district takes up Southwestern Southeastern Colorado as well as rural Pueblo county and Canon City. Most of the counties in this district were solidly for McCain. The Republicans should hold this, despite it being open.
...
SD-06 Solid Democratic: This district is basically southeast southwest Colorado. The main population center is the college-town of Durango. The current incumbent was appointed in 2009, and thus has never won in the district. Still, it went 60% for the Democrat in 2006, and Durango should be in the Democratic column. Solidly Democratic.

Fixed (right?)

Yes.

I do that too, a lot of the time.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Wow here's a great site: http://comaps.org/cosenate.html

Colorado keeps pretty good election statistics too.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

This is a really vaguely sourced poll of HD-61 that shows the write-in incumbent leading 43-34-22 over the Democrat and Republican, respectively.