Did Bush get his increased margin from Bush counties or Gore counties?

[kevinatcausa]

My apologies if this has been asked already.

Has anyone run a county-county regression of (Bush margin of victory in 2004-Bush margin of victory in 2000) vs. Bush margin of victory in 2004 or something similar (though I don't think the axes I give here are properly normalized...)

Looking at the Ohio maps from 2004 and 2000, it looks on the surface like Bush won more by increasing his support in the counties that went for him in 2000 than by winning must support in the counties with close races, and I'm curious if this is a general trend or if I'm just seeing things?

[KEmperor]

In NY, Bush increased his vote totals in 57 of the 62 counties, and won a few he lost in 2000.

This probably holds true in a lot of states.

[Blue Rectangle]

The 2004 county data on this site allows you to switch the view back and forth from 2004 and 2000.  When I did this, it looks like a lot of blue counties become darker blue in 2004.  So I'd say that Bush got a big lift from his 2000 counties.

In CO, Bush's margin of victory went down a couple points from 2000 and Kerry flipped more counties his way than Bush did.  However, you can still see blue counties getting darker between 2004 and 2000.

2004:


2000:

[Beet]

Actually, according to exit polls, Bush got his biggest boost from urban areas.

[J. J.]

He did improved his Phila vote by about 2%.

[Beet]

He did improved his Phila vote by about 2%.

That's one of the places where he underperformed I guess.

[Beet]

Now that I look at it, Bush BADLY underperformed in Phila.

In fact it was a total disaster for him. Here's the change in urban areas from the CNN exit poll. The urban/rural results might come as quite a shock:

Bush Percentage (Change over 2000)
Urban 45% (+10)
Suburban 52% (+3)
Rural 57% -2

[dougrhess]

I noticed that drop by Bush in rural areas, very odd. Is it real?

There's an analysis of where Bush votes at this website: http://www.emergingdemocraticmajorityweblog.com/donkeyrising/index.php

That's one of the longest, silliest website names I've everseen. Anyway, the article on where Bush's increased votes came from is the third article (as of today). The publish date of that entry at that site, if that helps in finding it is Nov. 9 2004. Seems like NY and NJ gave Bush a lot of votes compared to 2000.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Bush % by size of community, CNN Exit poll:

Big Cities: 39% (+13)
Smaller Cities: 49% (+9)
Suburbs: 52% (+3)
Small Towns: 50% (-9)
Rural: 59% (-)

[minionofmidas]

It very much differs by region...
The whole are from Boston to SOuth Jersey had very much reduced Dem margins, this is one of the key places to look.
Turnout increased in many Republican areas, especially in the rural South, this is another one.
In California, Dem margins increased in almost all the Dem areas and Rep margins in most of the Rep areas, and all the densely populated Rep areas.
Dem margins increased very much in rural college-dominated counties.
Pretty much all the traditionally Republican major cities in the midwest (you know, like Columbus, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Grand Rapids - note that Columbus' county has been won by Democrats for three elections in a row now) swung Democratic.
Etc.
So, to answer in one word: Depends.

[Nym90]

It very much differs by region...
The whole are from Boston to SOuth Jersey had very much reduced Dem margins, this is one of the key places to look.
Turnout increased in many Republican areas, especially in the rural South, this is another one.
In California, Dem margins increased in almost all the Dem areas and Rep margins in most of the Rep areas, and all the densely populated Rep areas.
Dem margins increased very much in rural college-dominated counties.
Pretty much all the traditionally Republican major cities in the midwest (you know, like Columbus, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Grand Rapids - note that Columbus' county has been won by Democrats for three elections in a row now) swung Democratic.
Etc.
So, to answer in one word: Depends.

Reduced Dem margins from Boston to South Jersey can be explained by 9/11, and fear of terrorism in general.

Higher turnout in Republican areas can largely be explained by the social issues such as gay marriage; especially in the rural South.

Democrats doing better in college towns can be explained by social issues such as gay marriage, and the war in Iraq.

Democratic improvement in rural areas and previously Republican cities in the Midwest makes sense too, as the economy hurt Bush here.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Now that I look at it, Bush BADLY underperformed in Phila.

In fact it was a total disaster for him. Here's the change in urban areas from the CNN exit poll. The urban/rural results might come as quite a shock:

Bush Percentage (Change over 2000)
Urban 45% (+10)
Suburban 52% (+3)
Rural 57% -2

I think we see in this one of the reasons Kerry gave up so quickly.  Had Kerry challenged Ohio, Bush would have gone after PA (as well as WI).  There are all sorts of fishy things going on in Philly.  And in Milwaukee, for that matter.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Now that I look at it, Bush BADLY underperformed in Phila.

In fact it was a total disaster for him. Here's the change in urban areas from the CNN exit poll. The urban/rural results might come as quite a shock:

Bush Percentage (Change over 2000)
Urban 45% (+10)
Suburban 52% (+3)
Rural 57% -2

I think we see in this one of the reasons Kerry gave up so quickly.  Had Kerry challenged Ohio, Bush would have gone after PA (as well as WI).  There are all sorts of fishy things going on in Philly.  And in Milwaukee, for that matter.

Fishy stuff happend in every state. Sad but certainly true.