PA: Rasmussen: Toomey (R) up by nine

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

New Poll: Pennsylvania Senator by Rasmussen on 2010-09-30

Summary: D: 40%, R: 49%, I: 4%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Torie]

The half life of the Sestak "surge" per that other poll appears to have been highly ephemeral. 

[Franzl]

Toomey has run an extremely good campaign. He's going to win, no doubt in my mind.

[Whacker77]

Thos race and Kentucky show an interesting trend.  The vast majority of the movement in the polls comes from either Toomey or Paul.  Sestak's number and Conway's number generally remain in the low to mid forties.  To some extent, that reminds me of Casey's race with Santorum.  Santorum never got past 42 or 43 in the polls.  When one showed the race close, it was due to Casey's number being lower.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Toomey has run an extremely good campaign. He's going to win, no doubt in my mind.

In spite of taking some very  hard hits from Sestak about being "wall street's candidate".......he's fought back, but mostly by tying Sestak to Obama/Pelosi.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     We get the idea by now. How about we have more polls of races that are not OH or PA?

[Tender Branson]

     We get the idea by now. How about we have more polls of races that are not OH or PA?

Yeah, I always wonder why CNN, FOX, Marist, SUSA or someone else is never polling Missouri, West Virginia, Connecticut or New Hampshire.

These states need to be polled more, not OH and PA where it is clear that the Republicans will win.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Thos race and Kentucky show an interesting trend.  The vast majority of the movement in the polls comes from either Toomey or Paul.  Sestak's number and Conway's number generally remain in the low to mid forties.  To some extent, that reminds me of Casey's race with Santorum.  Santorum never got past 42 or 43 in the polls.  When one showed the race close, it was due to Casey's number being lower.

Interesting comparison. Of course Toomey won't get 59%, he doesn't need to. He will get 52%-54% and that was what Casey was going to get before Santorum's second leg down in the polling in Sept and October.

[memphis]

He should be up by more. He can't top 50% Why can't he close the deal?

[Mjh]

He should be up by more. He can't top 50% Why can't he close the deal?

Should he? I don't think 49% is that bad for Toomey when you consider that Sestak is a first rate oponent. Not to mention how Sestaks economic views are probably closer to the majority view in PA that Toomey's.

[Eraserhead]

     We get the idea by now. How about we have more polls of races that are not OH or PA?

Yeah, I always wonder why CNN, FOX, Marist, SUSA or someone else is never polling Missouri, West Virginia, Connecticut or New Hampshire.

These states need to be polled more, not OH and PA where it is clear that the Republicans will win.

I really wouldn't completely write this one off yet. Ohio is pretty much done though.

[memphis]

He should be up by more. He can't top 50% Why can't he close the deal?

Should he? I don't think 49% is that bad for Toomey when you consider that Sestak is a first rate oponent. Not to mention how Sestaks economic views are probably closer to the majority view in PA that Toomey's.

It's an Atlas meme. A certain other poster was constantly saying the same the same thing about Obama two years ago. I should have also said that I know lots of Republicans in the T and they're all secretly voting for Sestak. That was a different poster about how Obama was going to collapse in Philadelphia. He ended up doing better than any presidential candidate in the city's history. In all seriousness, Toomey has this unless something seriously changes. I'm a big time partisan, but I'm not a delusional hack.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

He should be up by more. He can't top 50% Why can't he close the deal?

Should he? I don't think 49% is that bad for Toomey when you consider that Sestak is a first rate oponent. Not to mention how Sestaks economic views are probably closer to the majority view in PA that Toomey's.

Its where a Republican in a PA open seat should would be expected at if they were on the verge of winning. PA wouldn't elect any GOP to the Senate by a wide margin for an open seat, not anymore and even in the past, open seats were competative. This is the first really open seat in PA since 1980 except for the 1991 special SEnate election of course.

[Keystone Phil]

Nothing being taken for granted here though.

[J. J.]

I still list it as second tier.  Sestak is not "road kill" at this point.