NHPolitico is officially more insane than bandit

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

early in the campaign season bandit was (rightfully) mocked for his insane prediction that Kerry would win Kentucky. That turned out to be insane alright. However not mentioned anywhere near as much was the absolutely ridiculous prediction map of NHPolitico which, among other things, had Bush winning Vermont. I once made a poll on this asking which was crazier, and many people argued Bush had a better chance in Vermont than Kerry in Kentucky.

But now the results are in, and in both states:

Kentucky - Bush wins by 19.87 points
Vermont - Kerry wins by 20.26 points

Therefore a prediction of Vermont for Bush is more ridiculous than Kentucky for Kerry.

And we can of course ridicule AuH2O as well for making the same prediction.

[A18]

Bush had a slightly better chance at a national 20-point swing than Kerry did at a 19-point swing.

But they're both officially insane.

[Reds4]

Fair to say both predicitions were quite far off

[Lunar]

I think Carl and a few other folks had Bush winning Vermont as well.

It's socialist country baby.

[Gabu]

As I said before, there is a simple reason that should have made it obvious that it wasn't going to go for Bush: Howard Dean got elected there.

[A18]

I didn't predict Bush would win Vermont, and I predicted a 40-state landslide (I was only 9 states off, damnit).

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

As I said before, there is a simple reason that should have made it obvious that it wasn't going to go for Bush: Howard Dean got elected there.

better yet, Bernie Sanders did.

[CARLHAYDEN]

I think Carl and a few other folks had Bush winning Vermont as well.

It's socialist country baby.

Its not as nutty as is generally thought.

Unfortunately, the Republican party and in this election the Bush campaign have given up on Vermont for years, ceding it to the loonies.

[Gabu]

I think Carl and a few other folks had Bush winning Vermont as well.

It's socialist country baby.

Its not as nutty as is generally thought.

Unfortunately, the Republican party and in this election the Bush campaign have given up on Vermont for years, ceding it to the loonies.

Kerry's margin of victory in Vermont was as large as his margin in Rhode Island and very nearly as large as his margin in Massachusetts.  I'm not sure how Republicans attempting to get votes could change that.  You might as well try to carry Massachusetts while you're at it; it has more electoral votes.

[CARLHAYDEN]

First. if you look at the history of the two respective states you will see that as recently as 1988 (not to mention 1984, 1980, 1976, 1972, 1968) the Republicans carried Vermont, whereas the Republicans carried Rhode Island only in the landslide years of 1984 and 1972.

Second, if you look at the demographics of the two states you will see they are quite different.

Third, if you look at the political cultures of the two states you will see they are quite different (Rhode Island has traditionally been a little corrupt whereas Vermont has been squeaky clean).

Fourth, in Rhode Island organized crime has traditionally had a significant influence in that state's politics, while in Vermont crime mostly consists of kleptomania.

Fifth, in Vermont even the lefties don't attack the right to keep and bear arms (no permit needed there to carry concealed), whereas Rhode Island is ruled by a bunch of slobbering hoplaphobes.

Sixth, the Yankee culture still has considerable sway in Vermont, particularly with respect to budgets.  Compare the per capita taxation and spending of the two states and you will see what I mean.

[opebo]

Vermont is a very cool state!

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

As I said before, there is a simple reason that should have made it obvious that it wasn't going to go for Bush: Howard Dean got elected there.

Howard Dean is not a loony-leftist, despite how the media tries to portray him.

Dean could get elected governor in Wisconsin (well, probably not now, but before the Iowa Incident).

[ATFFL]

As I said before, there is a simple reason that should have made it obvious that it wasn't going to go for Bush: Howard Dean got elected there.

Howard Dean is not a loony-leftist, despite how the media tries to portray him.

Dean could get elected governor in Wisconsin (well, probably not now, but before the Iowa Incident).

Howard Dean governed as a moderate.  He ran for President on the loony left.

[NHPolitico]

I revised my map a long time ago.

[NHPolitico]

That map was from December 2003, by the way--before the Iowa caucus was even held.

And Vermont did elect a Republican Gov, LG, and Auditor this year.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That map was from December 2003, by the way--before the Iowa caucus was even held.

And Vermont did elect a Republican Gov, LG, and Auditor this year.

um, so you honestly expected Howard Dean to lose Vermont?