CT-05: CT Capitol Report/Merriman - Murphy (D) Down by 5

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

The key is the the GOP rebound in white upper class suburbs. That explains CT-05 and CT-04. In the 2000-2008 paradigm these were becoming more and more Dem and off limits to the GOP. Hence in 2006, Scott Elliot of Election Projections Listed CT-02 and CT-05 as the least likely to go back to the GOP after they were lost. The Paradigm has shifted significantly.

You mean, hopefully CT-02 is a competitive race, too.

No, CT-02 should be competitive if CT-04 is.  It's just one point more Democratic than CT-04 (D+6 vs D+5), but much more blue collar than the rest of Connecticut.  It's working class whites that are abandoning the Democrats most.  I'd be shocked if Peckinpaugh isn't within at least 7.

I'd be shocked if either of these races are actually competitive

Prepare to be shocked.  All 3 districts were held by Republicans in 2004.  CT-02 and CT-05 flipped in 2006; CT-04 in 2008.  They should be competitive - and will be.

TX-22, FL-16, and KS-2 were Democratic in 2006, yet somehow I doubt they're going to be close   This reminds me of how some people were saying Courtney and Murphy might be vulnerable/in tough races in 2008.

Cappielo was a strong candidate who just couldn't get traction in 2008 due to the environment and the continuing trend against the GOP in these type of seats.

CT-02 was only going to be Competative if Simmons had a rematch. He didn't.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

As was mentioned, CT-02 is more blue collar working class whites then the other two districts are. That coud be either good or bad for GOP. Simmons did well in this district but it was held by a Dem for 20 to 30 years before him and Simmons only be him due to a scandal I beleive in 2000, overcoming Gore's victory in the district. I think CT-02 is hardest of all them for the GOP to oust an incumbent Dem.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

You mean, hopefully CT-02 is a competitive race, too.

No, CT-02 should be competitive if CT-04 is.  It's just one point more Democratic than CT-04 (D+6 vs D+5), but much more blue collar than the rest of Connecticut.  It's working class whites that are abandoning the Democrats most.

Nobody is abandoning the Democrats in large numbers, not even to nonvoting. What's actually happening is Republicans are turning out in record numbers for a midterm. And the fourth, being far more suburban, is much more likely to vote party not person in downballot races.
This isn't to say that the second might not be competitive too - just that it might not be.

People are abandoning Democrats, especially blue collar working class voters. The Problem is that this is New England and CT-02's blue collar workers might be resistant to voting GOP like has been seen in RI and Bristol, MA. This is the type of year in which such business as usuall can change but it doesn't mean it will and definately doesn't mean it is uniform acrossed these states.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

People are abandoning Democrats, especially blue collar working class voters. The Problem is that this is New England and CT-02's blue collar workers might be resistant to voting GOP like has been seen in RI and Bristol, MA. This is the type of year in which such business as usuall can change but it doesn't mean it will and definately doesn't mean it is uniform acrossed these states.

Actually, Bristol County, MA had the second-largest swing of any MA county from McCain to Brown, and the largest swing from the Republican in most recent major competitive statewide races (Weld v. Kerry and Romney v. O'Brien).  Granted, Scott Brown was from a neighboring county - but I don't think that explained all of it.  

I don't think CT-02's blue collar workers are resistant to voting GOP.  They did vote for Simmons.  

One major difference between CT-02 and CT-04 and CT-05 is the lack of a Democratic stronghold city with a large minority population whose residents likely won't turn out in anywhere close to the same percentages this year as in '08.  CT-04 has Bridgeport.  CT-05 has New Britain and Danbury.  Bridgeport turnout will likely determine who wins CT-04.

Why the hell do you think I included the Sentence about uniformity. I mean I could write books of posts explaining all the twists and turns and sub points but no one would read them because of length. I am fully aware of Scott Brown's victory in Bristol and such forth. Thats why I said the trend may not be uniform. OVer the last 30 years those areas have been resistent to Republican overtures unlike similar areas around the country. Hency my inclusion of the sentence just prior.

CT-02 does have Groton. It may not be large but certainly hasn't been moving towards the GOP. Simmons did well there I beleive. Others will likely struggle till you get the right combo of candidate, year and turnout.