PA-07/Monmouth: Republican Meehan leads in Sestak's district

[Tender Branson]

49% - Pat Meehan (R)
45% - Bryan Lentz (D)

President Barack Obama won this district by 13 points in 2008. Today, though, 7th District voters give him a negative job performance rating of 44% approve to 50% disapprove. Among those who voted for Obama two years ago, 77% say they will vote for Democrat Lentz, but 16% will cast their ballots for Meehan on November 2. By comparison, 88% of John McCain voters from 2008 will support GOP nominee Meehan, versus just 8% who will vote for Lentz.

It’s not clear how Joe Sestak would have fared had he decided to run for re-election to the House rather than pursue a U.S. Senate seat. Likely voters in the 7th are split on the outgoing Congressman’s job performance – 46% approve to 42% disapprove. Similarly, the district is divided on how they will vote for U.S. Senate – 49% say they will support Sestak in his bid for higher office while 46% will vote for Republican Pat Toomey.

...

The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by automated telephone interviewing with 670
likely voters from October 4 to 6, 2010. This sample has a margin of error of + 3.8 percent.

...

http://www.monmouth.edu/polling/admin/polls/MUP37_PA07.pdf

[Rowan]

I actually expected the lead to be bigger.

[Keystone Phil]

I actually expected the lead to be bigger.

This won't be a huge win for Meehan but he's in a great position to win this.

[Tender Branson]

How did the district vote in 2006 (Senate) and 2004 (President), for comparison ?

[Keystone Phil]

How did the district vote in 2006 (Senate) and 2004 (President), for comparison ?

Overwhelmingly for Casey and probably a healthy margin of victory for Kerry.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

53-47 in 2004, 51-47 in 2000.

[Tender Branson]

I guess Sestak would do better in his district than anywhere else, so the polls showing Toomey up by ~10% are correct then.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

No, I think he'll do better in inner city Philly and in Pittsburgh

[Tender Branson]

No, I think he'll do better in inner city Philly and in Pittsburgh

No no, I mean relative to other Democratic candidates ...

I know he´ll do much better in Philly ...

[Keystone Phil]

I just noticed that the poll included a survey about the Senate race. If the numbers are accurate, Sestak is pretty much finished.

No, I think he'll do better in inner city Philly and in Pittsburgh

Not nearly well enough to make up for a narrow win in his district. The enthusiasm and turn out just won't be there (especially this year) for Sestak.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well, obviously.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I just noticed that the poll included a survey about the Senate race. If the numbers are accurate, Sestak is pretty much finished.

No, I think he'll do better in inner city Philly and in Pittsburgh

Not nearly well enough to make up for a narrow win in his district. The enthusiasm and turn out just won't be there (especially this year) for Sestak.

Confirms what my take has been for weeks. Sestak will not be dominating in the Philly suburbs like so many had hoped, prayed, and counted on. And those Casey-dems up state aren't interested in voting for Democrat for the Senate this year, not with the economy, Cap and trade, etc.

[minionofmidas]

I actually feared/expected (sorta in between) the lead to be bigger.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

Much closer numbers than I was expecting. Makes me think that if Sestak had run again he would have had a pretty easy go of it.

[J. J.]

It's a university poll, so I'd take Meehan's lead with a grain of salt.